J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Kalec]

Hmm?
Reagrdless if it is almost an accepted fact, that the J-20-production has been increased, we have in fact only very limited actual confirmed (or semi-confirmed) information. In parallel to our hunt for more facts, the numbers discussed in the social media is constantly raising within the remaining years from 2 to 4 and now even six production lines, almost 300 in service by now and with almost unbelievable yearly rates.

This all might indeed be true, but IMO - especially as a numbers nerd - all forget one important argument: Where are all these J-20s?

The more J-20s by numbers operational, the more units operating them, the more often at least blurry images showing them in use must appear, but unfortunately they don't.

Like I said, with a good portion of gut-feeling, good-will and guesswork 200 are possible in service based on the known units, but if there are indeed close to 300 already in use like some claim, we must at least know much more units.

I know, I'm always too impatient and at best we are often one year behind with getting solid evidence and finally a clear number, but so far - and please correct me if I'm wrong - we have rumours for the following units albeit barely any evidence:

- 97th AB rumoured since October(November 2022 ... so far NOTHING
- 55th AB rumoured since March 2023 ... again NOTHING
- 131st AB rumoured since April 2023 ... NOTHING and even to the contrary, still images of J-10C in service.
- 41st AB rumoured since July 2023 ... again NOTHING.
- 4th AB rumoured also since mid 2023 (the most recent rumour I heard) ... again NOTHING!

So I'm surely not a PLAAF critic, who want to play down again the numbers and again, even if I'm well aware we are often almost one year behind in getting proof for a converted unit, but since October 2022, when the first image of a J-20 under the 8th AB was posted - we have NOTHING solid on allegedly almost 100 J-20s more than a year ago.

Is the PLAAF's OPSEC really that good?

Yeah, I agree with all you said. I am merely suggesting it should have been CB11234 instead of CB10234 if the 20 per batch theory still applies after Batch 8.

 

[Blitzo]

Hmm?
Reagrdless if it is almost an accepted fact, that the J-20-production has been increased, we have in fact only very limited actual confirmed (or semi-confirmed) information. In parallel to our hunt for more facts, the numbers discussed in the social media is constantly raising within the remaining years from 2 to 4 and now even six production lines, almost 300 in service by now and with almost unbelievable yearly rates.

This all might indeed be true, but IMO - especially as a numbers nerd - all forget one important argument: Where are all these J-20s?

The more J-20s by numbers operational, the more units operating them, the more often at least blurry images showing them in use must appear, but unfortunately they don't.

Like I said, with a good portion of gut-feeling, good-will and guesswork 200 are possible in service based on the known units, but if there are indeed close to 300 already in use like some claim, we must at least know much more units.

I know, I'm always too impatient and at best we are often one year behind with getting solid evidence and finally a clear number, but so far - and please correct me if I'm wrong - we have rumours for the following units albeit barely any evidence:

- 97th AB rumoured since October(November 2022 ... so far NOTHING
- 55th AB rumoured since March 2023 ... again NOTHING
- 131st AB rumoured since April 2023 ... NOTHING and even to the contrary, still images of J-10C in service.
- 41st AB rumoured since July 2023 ... again NOTHING.
- 4th AB rumoured also since mid 2023 (the most recent rumour I heard) ... again NOTHING!

So I'm surely not a PLAAF critic, who want to play down again the numbers and again, even if I'm well aware we are often almost one year behind in getting proof for a converted unit, but since October 2022, when the first image of a J-20 under the 8th AB was posted - we have NOTHING solid on allegedly almost 100 J-20s more than a year ago.

Is the PLAAF's OPSEC really that good?

I agree with your overall sentiments but I also think your question at the end of the post, is a very reasonable answer.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Is the PLAAF's OPSEC really that good?

Yes.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Hmm?
Reagrdless if it is almost an accepted fact, that the J-20-production has been increased, we have in fact only very limited actual confirmed (or semi-confirmed) information. In parallel to our hunt for more facts, the numbers discussed in the social media is constantly raising within the remaining years from 2 to 4 and now even six production lines, almost 300 in service by now and with almost unbelievable yearly rates.

This all might indeed be true, but IMO - especially as a numbers nerd - all forget one important argument: Where are all these J-20s?

The more J-20s by numbers operational, the more units operating them, the more often at least blurry images showing them in use must appear, but unfortunately they don't.

Like I said, with a good portion of gut-feeling, good-will and guesswork 200 are possible in service based on the known units, but if there are indeed close to 300 already in use like some claim, we must at least know much more units.

I know, I'm always too impatient and at best we are often one year behind with getting solid evidence and finally a clear number, but so far - and please correct me if I'm wrong - we have rumours for the following units albeit barely any evidence:

- 97th AB rumoured since October(November 2022 ... so far NOTHING
- 55th AB rumoured since March 2023 ... again NOTHING
- 131st AB rumoured since April 2023 ... NOTHING and even to the contrary, still images of J-10C in service.
- 41st AB rumoured since July 2023 ... again NOTHING.
- 4th AB rumoured also since mid 2023 (the most recent rumour I heard) ... again NOTHING!

So I'm surely not a PLAAF critic, who want to play down again the numbers and again, even if I'm well aware we are often almost one year behind in getting proof for a converted unit, but since October 2022, when the first image of a J-20 under the 8th AB was posted - we have NOTHING solid on allegedly almost 100 J-20s more than a year ago.

Is the PLAAF's OPSEC really that good?

Most unauthorized photos are taken from the ground and when an aircraft is 5000+ feet above you, it is kinda hard to discern the serial number.

 

[Deino]

I agree with your overall sentiments but I also think your question at the end of the post, is a very reasonable answer.

The bad thing is, I really expected this answer from you and even if I don't like it, it's still a good answer because it doesn't mean that our theory has to be completely rejected. We'll probably just have to wait and at some point in a few years at the Zhuhai or Changchun Air Show we'll be presented with a new CB number, which will most likely be a huge leap over the last known ones, but that J-20 will still be flying for several months.

And so the game continues...

 

[latenlazy]

Technically nothing requires that the numbers of units per batch needs to stay fixed. The batch number is just a designation of groupings not a fixed relationship with counts. I think we should keep an open mind since we've already gotten this wrong once and the situation with production is already so fluid as it is.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Different brigades often rotate between TCs based on demand. Of late a lot of Northern and Western TC brigades have been stationed in East/South for a year or longer.

 

[Deino]

Different brigades often rotate between TCs based on demand. Of late a lot of Northern and Western TC brigades have been stationed in East/South for a year or longer.

Yes, but this still would result in more sightings of J-20s at more and various bases and at least by my understanding and from what I hear from guys with access to satellite imagery, we don‘t have this „more“ on sightings.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Yes, but this still would result in more sightings of J-20s at more and various bases and at least by my understanding and from what I hear from guys with access to satellite imagery, we don‘t have this „more“ on sightings.

Simple — aircraft shelter. Just look at the satellite photo for Anshan AFB where we have confirmation of J-20 brigade. How many J-20s do you see on the tarmac? One. Does this mean they only operate one J-20? Important asset like a stealth fighter is sheltered when not in use, and it is very rare to catch them all out in the runway unless it is for a promotional photo.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

How many of these J-20s being produced so far use Russian engines?

If I assume that WS-15 version is not yet in production, aren't they making a mistake producing so many with inferior WS-10 engines when they can slow down a little and ramp up when Ws-15 based J-20 is in production.