J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Deino]

This specific one is rumored to be Series No. 61263 with a CB number of CB0X234.

However the CB number doesn't make sense to me so take it with a grain of salt.

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Well, I'm a bit sceptical since the image is so small and blurry that reading the serial number is barely possible. According to @huitong it is 61267 - so that this poster either must know this aircraft from other images or must have better sources.

Even if a number #234 is likely, concerning the so far understood CB-numbering system, CB0X234 is indeed unlikely since so far all batches are confirmed to consist of 20 aircraft. However I also read a rumour stating, Batch 10 is of an increased batch of 40 aircraft instead of 20 aircraft. Anyway, even if this is true, Batch 10 would include the numbers CB09181 to CB09220.

As such the final 10th Batch or a CB09xx number should be "only" CB09220, and this would not fit to CB0X234 ... CB0X234 then must be a Batch 11 or CB10234 (from CB10221 to CB10260) if this batch again consists of 40 aircraft but this would contradict the CB0Xxxx claim.

So in summary, to admit this all is for my taste much too speculative and without additional information (in fact images of construction numbers) very much unlikely.

 

[antiterror13]

Well, I'm a bit sceptical since the image is so small and blurry that reading the serial number is barely possible. According to @huitong it is 61267 - so that this poster either must know this aircraft from other images or must have better sources.

Even if a number #234 is likely, concerning the so far understood CB-numbering system, CB0X234 is indeed unlikely since so far all batches are confirmed to consist of 20 aircraft. However I also read a rumour stating, Batch 10 is of an increased batch of 40 aircraft instead of 20 aircraft. Anyway, even if this is true, Batch 10 would include the numbers CB09181 to CB09220.

As such the final 10th Batch or a CB09xx number should be "only" CB09220, and this would not fit to CB0X234 ... CB0X234 then must be a Batch 11 or CB10234 (from CB10221 to CB10260) if this batch again consists of 40 aircraft but this would contradict the CB0Xxxx claim.

So in summary, to admit this all is for my taste much too speculative and without additional information (in fact images of construction numbers) very much unlikely.

So @Deino let's say the 11th batch consist of 40 aircrafts, so after the 11th batch how many J-20s would be total ?

 

[Kalec]

Even if a number #234 is likely, concerning the so far understood CB-numbering system, CB0X234 is indeed unlikely since so far all batches are confirmed to consist of 20 aircraft. However I also read a rumour stating, Batch 10 is of an increased batch of 40 aircraft instead of 20 aircraft. Anyway, even if this is true, Batch 10 would include the numbers CB09181 to CB09220.

As such the final 10th Batch or a CB09xx number should be "only" CB09220, and this would not fit to CB0X234 ... CB0X234 then must be a Batch 11 or CB10234 (from CB10221 to CB10260) if this batch again consists of 40 aircraft but this would contradict the CB0Xxxx claim.

I agree with the numerical analysis but still one more thing, the 234th J-20 should be the Batch 12 or CB11234 if the existing numerical system still applies to the post Batch 9 counting.

However, the *rumor* suggests that it exists a certain airframe with CB number CB08193 which makes me wonder if Chengdu changed the CB system after the expansion of their factory assembly plant.

The number of CB09234 would make sense to me if they increase number per batch from 20 to 40 after CB07XXX or Batch 8. Meanwhile the proof we need is a CB number larger than 180 to determine their numbering system.

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[Derpy]

I agree with the numerical analysis but still one more thing, the 234th J-20 should be the Batch 12 or CB11234 if the existing numerical system still applies to the post Batch 9 counting.

However, the *rumor* suggests that it exists a certain airframe with CB number CB08193 which makes me wonder if Chengdu changed the CB system after the expansion of their factory assembly plant.

The number of CB09234 would make sense to me if they increase number per batch from 20 to 40 after CB07XXX or Batch 8. Meanwhile the proof we need is a CB number larger than 180 to determine their numbering system.

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If they are running multiple lines then batches might not make much sense anymore which would explain the X. Changes are likely introduced to one line first while the other are still running etc

 

[CMP]

If they are running multiple lines then batches might not make much sense anymore which would explain the X. Changes are likely introduced to one line first while the other are still running etc

Not saying this would universally be the case but having previously worked in an engineering/scientific setting in support of tech manufacturing at a pilot plant, I can say that even with multiple concurrent production lines at one facility, there is still batch tracking for traceability and quality control purposes. You would just have additional tracking information to reflect different batches coming off of different production lines, even down to the shift.

That way you can pin the origin/cause of a defect down to where and when it occurred, what people/equipment/inputs were involved, etc. Complete end-to-end traceability of every little part/input/component is a standard practice.

In most cases this tracking information would not be visible to external observers of the final product. An employee would input an externally visible serial number into their laptop and be able to pull up all the additional numbers tied to those other details mentioned.

Your speculation about how changes are introduced is correct for manufacturing in general.

 

[Deino]

CB08193

May I ask, where this rumour is from?

The last "strange" number I heard of was this one CB09220 allegedly from a late April on a J-20 to be assigned to the 131st AB. However this is only a sketch

 

[Kalec]

May I ask, where this rumour is from?

The last "strange" number I heard of was this one CB09220 allegedly from a late April on a J-20 to be assigned to the 131st AB. However this is only a sketch

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[latenlazy]

Not saying this would universally be the case but having previously worked in an engineering/scientific setting in support of tech manufacturing at a pilot plant, I can say that even with multiple concurrent production lines at one facility, there is still batch tracking for traceability and quality control purposes. You would just have additional tracking information to reflect different batches coming off of different production lines, even down to the shift.

That way you can pin the origin/cause of a defect down to where and when it occurred, what people/equipment/inputs were involved, etc. Complete end-to-end traceability of every little part/input/component is a standard practice.

In most cases this tracking information would not be visible to external observers of the final product. An employee would input an externally visible serial number into their laptop and be able to pull up all the additional numbers tied to those other details mentioned.

Your speculation about how changes are introduced is correct for manufacturing in general.

Yup, how the manufacturing floors at my company are run.

 

[Deino]

I agree with the numerical analysis but still one more thing, the 234th J-20 should be the Batch 12 or CB11234 if the existing numerical system still applies to the post Batch 9 counting.

However, the *rumor* suggests that it exists a certain airframe with CB number CB08193 which makes me wonder if Chengdu changed the CB system after the expansion of their factory assembly plant.

The number of CB09234 would make sense to me if they increase number per batch from 20 to 40 after CB07XXX or Batch 8. Meanwhile the proof we need is a CB number larger than 180 to determine their numbering system.

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Hmm?
Reagrdless if it is almost an accepted fact, that the J-20-production has been increased, we have in fact only very limited actual confirmed (or semi-confirmed) information. In parallel to our hunt for more facts, the numbers discussed in the social media is constantly raising within the remaining years from 2 to 4 and now even six production lines, almost 300 in service by now and with almost unbelievable yearly rates.

This all might indeed be true, but IMO - especially as a numbers nerd - all forget one important argument: Where are all these J-20s?

The more J-20s by numbers operational, the more units operating them, the more often at least blurry images showing them in use must appear, but unfortunately they don't.

Like I said, with a good portion of gut-feeling, good-will and guesswork 200 are possible in service based on the known units, but if there are indeed close to 300 already in use like some claim, we must at least know much more units.

I know, I'm always too impatient and at best we are often one year behind with getting solid evidence and finally a clear number, but so far - and please correct me if I'm wrong - we have rumours for the following units albeit barely any evidence:

- 97th AB rumoured since October(November 2022 ... so far NOTHING
- 55th AB rumoured since March 2023 ... again NOTHING
- 131st AB rumoured since April 2023 ... NOTHING and even to the contrary, still images of J-10C in service.
- 41st AB rumoured since July 2023 ... again NOTHING.
- 4th AB rumoured also since mid 2023 (the most recent rumour I heard) ... again NOTHING!

So I'm surely not a PLAAF critic, who want to play down again the numbers and again, even if I'm well aware we are often almost one year behind in getting proof for a converted unit, but since October 2022, when the first image of a J-20 under the 8th AB was posted - we have NOTHING solid on allegedly almost 100 J-20s more than a year ago.

Is the PLAAF's OPSEC really that good?

 

[Atomicfrog]

Hmm?
Reagrdless if it is almost an accepted fact, that the J-20-production has been increased, we have in fact only very limited actual confirmed (or semi-confirmed) information. In parallel to our hunt for more facts, the numbers discussed in the social media is constantly raising within the remaining years from 2 to 4 and now even six production lines, almost 300 in service by now and with almost unbelievable yearly rates.

This all might indeed be true, but IMO - especially as a numbers nerd - all forget one important argument: Where are all these J-20s?

The more J-20s by numbers operational, the more units operating them, the more often at least blurry images showing them in use must appear, but unfortunately they don't.

Like I said, with a good portion of gut-feeling, good-will and guesswork 200 are possible in service based on the known units, but if there are indeed close to 300 already in use like some claim, we must at least know much more units.

I know, I'm always too impatient and at best we are often one year behind with getting solid evidence and finally a clear number, but so far - and please correct me if I'm wrong - we have rumours for the following units albeit barely any evidence:

- 97th AB rumoured since October(November 2022 ... so far NOTHING
- 55th AB rumoured since March 2023 ... again NOTHING
- 131st AB rumoured since April 2023 ... NOTHING and even to the contrary, still images of J-10C in service.
- 41st AB rumoured since July 2023 ... again NOTHING.
- 4th AB rumoured also since mid 2023 (the most recent rumour I heard) ... again NOTHING!

So I'm surely not a PLAAF critic, who want to play down again the numbers and again, even if I'm well aware we are often almost one year behind in getting proof for a converted unit, but since October 2022, when the first image of a J-20 under the 8th AB was posted - we have NOTHING solid on allegedly almost 100 J-20s more than a year ago.

Is the PLAAF's OPSEC really that good?

Is it possible that a gap/slowing of production in the last year exist while they are testing the J-20b prototype and WS15 ? If they change the variant produced soon, retooling will be needed on some production lines.

Maybe these 100 more are just not there and it's mostly a small batch and some twin seater in the last year?