This is too oversimplified. We don't know enough about these planes and their capabilities, RCS, IR signatures, RAM coats, sensors, armaments, escorts, AWACS capabilities, strategies, tactics, etc., to come to these conclusions.
Although I do agree that it was pretty elementary, you can make educated assumptions based on contextual information. For example, judging by the current maturity of the Chinese material science field, IMO, by extension, it is reasonable to assume that Chinese RAM technology is on par with the US. Chinese radar tech is also pretty decent. Heck, the radars on their AEW&C birds are (IIRC, at least) more modern than their US counterparts. My point is, you can't just completely shut something off because “we don't know enough information”- some areas are indeed explorable. And, maybe, we do have enough information for some conclusions.
When you say the J-20 is bigger, and therefore, better, you are assuming both sides are equally capable, technologically speaking. The truth is the US has decades on China in that regard, so even if they are deindustrializing and China is rising fast, it does not constitute reasonable evidence for assuming the US is not capable of producing, or is not currently working on producing a new air superiority fighter that would rival or surpass the J-20 by a significant margin, and mass produce it well before 2030, provided their economy has not collapsed by then.
Your point is slightly confusing. The guy you're replying to is comparing (albeit in a pretty elementary fashion) the J-20 and the F-35, and you brought up NGAD in response. But I would like to address some of your points nonetheless.
The US had decades on China and rolled out their stealth fighters first. That's true, but, the rate of technological advancements/progression between the two countries are not the same, and that's a major consideration. How well the two countries manage their programs are also different.
The rate of technological progression of the two countries is like a guy who sprinted then started to stagger and slow, and a guy who started later but is jogging. We're at the stage where the guy jogging is almost side-by-side with his hand outstretching past the staggering dude. Program management also plays a huge part. Look at the TR-3 program delays, AIM-260 JATM delays, etc. If even the technology is available, can they apply it is an entirely different matter.
On the other hand, we know the Chinese can upgrade their birds with much less hassle. We know the J-20 had gone through avionics refreshes, upgrades in-between production blocks, etc.
I'm not saying the US is incapable of doing so. But it is evident that they can't do it as efficiently.
The F-22A can likely compete with the J-20 in all regards.
Mm, no. Hold its own, maybe (IMHO just barely). But until the Raptors get their MLU, I can't agree with you here.
Keep in mind that the F-22 entered service almost 2 decades ago. That means the technology on it is also (almost) 20 years old. Sure, you can argue that the US was incredibly ahead 20 years ago and that the rest of the world is only catching up now, but with the rate of growth of technology, you can only get ahead so much. Cases in point, you can't find IRST/EODAS systems on the F-22. You can't find state-of-the-art GaN AESAs in the F-22. Etc, etc. Okay, you can argue that they can just upgrade it: the MLU program. Well then I raise you the ‘stellar’ program management of the USAF, or just the US in general. Look at how long they're taking to upgrade the production F-35 to TR-3 spec. Look at the AIM-260 JATM delays. The recent NGAD delay rumors. It's not as easy as it sounds.
The F-35 might be incapable of competing with the J-20, it still lays out the foundation for a next generation air superiority fighter to be produced in a relatively short amount of time. The sensors and tech are almost ready and their issues are being optimized, and so is the incredible F135 engine, and the new Adaptive Cycle engines are already being tested.
Ironically, the F-35 will have a better chance competing with the J-20 than the F-22. As for (I presume you're talking about) the TR-3 almost being ready… I wouldn't put that much confidence in US program management lol. Chances are we'll see delays or program hiccups. The F135 is… Eh. It ‘looks’ incredible on paper, that's about it. In essence, it's anything but groundbreaking and/or incredible. It's basically just an F119 with a higher BPR to produce more thrust. But that leads to a quite hopeless supersonic performance, and considering one of the 4S requirements for 5th Gen fighters are Supercruise (or just supersonic performance in general), I can't say it's incredible. And when you think about it, the F-35 will most likely see most action in the Pacific theater if a conflict between China and the US does break out. That means covering huge spans of distances, preferably fast. Well, you're out of luck for the fast part of you're in a F-35. And yes. The XA100/101 is indeed being tested, but they aren't gonna be in production anytime soon, much less seeing service on the F-35. The Chinese also have respective programs.
It is even possible for the US to pull the YF-23 off the shelf and and optimize it for today's tech. That alone would produce a phenomenal fighter with lower RCS and IR signatures than any fighter on the market, but chances are, they are working on something even better.
I would have a better time believing that Japan will field Mobile Suits in combat than the US reviving the YF-23. /s In all seriousness. No. That's on par, if not more ridiculous than the thought of the US reopening F-22 production lines. I can believe that the NGAD will be better than what the YF-23 could've been though. We'll see how smoothly they can procure it.
f22 is larger than f35, but has lower rcs. The gain you get in additional power and cooling you get from larger aircraft is far more important than RCS. That’s why j31 doesn’t seem great for plaaf to me. It’s not big enough.
Although I'm not saying a larger aircraft is incapable of having a smaller RCS. But do keep in mind that it's understandable for the Raptor to have a larger RCS. After all, caret intakes are a bit hard to work with to reduce RCS. And you don't have composites on the Raptor, either.
The J-31 is just a low-cost, mid-size 5th Gen fighter to work alongside the J-20. After all, the older J-11s, JH-7s, J-10s, do need replacing. The (albeit rumored) much lower cost makes it a pretty sweet replacement. You get a lot of bang for the buck.
