So the current estimate for total produced J-20s is around 300?
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
340 to 360
antiterror13
Brigadier
how did you come up with this number?
Would love to see your calculation for this? 300 is indeed possible (albeit IMO not in service) but 300+ is IMO unlikely.
The highest confirmed construction number so far is CB07156 allegedly spotted in January 2023 ... for anything else we do not have enough information IMO.
On the one hand I agree that we shouldn't just be throwing out numbers without a bit of explanation, but also I think citing the CB07156 number that was *seen* in very early 2023, is basically useless for the discussion about J-20's construction count by now.
We're one and a half years on from early 2023, and even CB07156 seen at the time probably was a delayed image and not representative of the actual latest construction airframe at that period. So we are probably over one and a half years behind in terms of what the actual latest CB number is.
I totally agree and IMO we are even almost two years behind in CB-numbers, but even if we assume no. 156 was built already months before January 2023 and even if since then 100 were built each year - which again is IMO unlikely since most credible reports assume this magical number 100 was the goal to archive as could be manufactured by late 2023 and not that in 2023 100 were manufactured - ... so there is one unlikely option adding to another unlikely one to reach that number.
As such, we simple need to wait until the Changchun Airshow this summer (if it ever happens) or the Zhuhai Airshow in November and hope they show new numbers. Otherwise is too much fishing in the mud.
Yes, my feeling is that I would be surprised if the number currently was meaningfully above 300.
That said, it's probably better to make that argument without making it seem like CB07156 itself is the "highest confirmed number" alone unless it is being used to estimate when it may have been produced and adding on additional likely production between when CB07156 was actually produced and now/current time.
Again I totally agree and me too would be surprised, if the numbers would be aver 300. My gut feeling says more about 280 at a maximum!
Anyway, all I usually do is collecting data and for CB07156 the only thing we know for sure, it was revealed in January 2023. We indeed don't know it it was its maiden flight like some claim (IMO unlikely) or if it was already flying since some time (IMO highly likely).
Was it not captioned with something like "the first flight test of the new year" ? I can not find the original.
We assumed the total number was higher at the time because we got the batch sizes wrong, i always thought they gave us the answer straight up - plane nr 156 being flight tested before delivery.
Yes, that's what the post said to this image, but we also know they often use older images ... so IMO we can be quite sure this even marked the first flight of a J-20 in 2023, but at the same time we cannot be sure it was this specific aircraft.