J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

Blitzo

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Can somebody help me about the current yearly fighter/bomber production figures? Twitter account somePLAOSINT claimed 40 J-16 and 60 J-20 per year. But Rick Joe and some others claimed that yearly production figures for J-20 is around 100 mark. Which one of them is more true about J-20? Why? Also is J-16 accurate or is it also a lowball estimate by him? Second question is did the production of H-6 bomber variants stop? If not, what is the production rate? Asked this on a wrong thread before I guess since no one responded.

I don't know the what someplaosint uses to get their numbers. It's not unreasonable but is a bit on the low end for the range I feel

You would have to ask him about it. Twitter is also very short form in its communication so it is rather difficult to put in all the detail one wants, it is possible there is additional context with makes more sense.
 

ChinaWatcher1

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I don't know the what someplaosint uses to get their numbers. It's not unreasonable but is a bit on the low end for the range I feel

You would have to ask him about it. Twitter is also very short form in its communication so it is rather difficult to put in all the detail one wants, it is possible there is additional context with makes more sense.
Thanks for response. By the way did you yourself decrease your own estimates regarding production rates? According to your old numbers, by the time your last diplomat post has been released, Number of J-20 must have been around 350 instead of 300. Also do you have an idea about final number of J-10C and its twin seater as China ceased procuring them? Also what would be a rough number of J-16 in service right now around mid summer 2024?
 

Blitzo

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Thanks for response. By the way did you yourself decrease your own estimates regarding production rates? According to your old numbers, by the time your last diplomat post has been released, Number of J-20 must have been around 350 instead of 300.

I don't know what old numbers you're referring to.


Also do you have an idea about final number of J-10C and its twin seater as China ceased procuring them? Also what would be a rough number of J-16 in service right now around mid summer 2024?

I don't have any numbers that would be useful enough for cognitive reassurance, but over 300 J-10Cs and 250-300 J-16s sounds reasonable to me. But this is not directly relevant to J-20, so if you want to pepper questions about orbat better to do so elsewhere.
 

ChinaWatcher1

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I don't know what old numbers you're referring to.




I don't have any numbers that would be useful enough for cognitive reassurance, but over 300 J-10Cs and 250-300 J-16s sounds reasonable to me. But this is not directly relevant to J-20, so if you want to pepper questions about orbat better to do so elsewhere.
Oh sorry I actually asked it in the general thread but no one saw it. By the old numbers I meant that you said in a post in reddit end of 2022 there were some 180 J-20. In 2023, there have been 100 more produced which means that it was already at 280 at beginning of 2024. Continuing the trend, shouldn't the numbers be more like 330? (Not 350 sorry haha)
 

Blitzo

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Oh sorry I actually asked it in the general thread but no one saw it. By the old numbers I meant that you said in a post in reddit end of 2022 there were some 180 J-20. In 2023, there have been 100 more produced which means that it was already at 280 at beginning of 2024. Continuing the trend, shouldn't the numbers be more like 330? (Not 350 sorry haha)

I understand the question now.

So, in my previous diplomat piece (which I assume you're working off), I wrote "A rise in J-20 production capacity and production rate has also been rumored over the last year, with expectations that annual J-20 production rate may approach 100 aircraft per year by the end of 2023".

I'm saying that the production rate by the end of 2023 may have risen to 100/year (and suggesting it will continue at that rate in 2024), not that in 2023 they would have produced 100 aircraft in the given year.
If you want a ballpark number, we could say that in 2023 they may have built anywhere between 60-80 J-20s.
 

gongolongo

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Nobody is misunderstanding you Andy. It is just you have a habit of suggesting outlandish things without thinking about what you are suggesting or checking how things are done in the first place.
If you were actually following what was happening in the world and in the defense industry you would know that USAF aircraft mostly used AIM-9X missiles that day. You would also know that aircraft, at best, carry a few hundred rounds and that is enough for 5 drones at most because of the inherent dispersion. You would also know about safety hazards related to gun engagements done against much slower targets. There is a plenty of material about the trials of jet fighters against propeller driven aircraft. Also, you could just simulate the scenario in your mind. It is quite obvious even without data.

Here are some your of suggestions so far on this website:

1- Electric gun with smart ammo as CIWS. And that PLA is heading for it!

2- Floating airports in the Pacific

3- Orbital VLS on a barge. It is being eyed by PLAN to launch DF-26 and DF-27!!!
China's Space Program Thread II

4- Stirling engine to control reactor temperature

5- PLARF covering PLAN vessels in the East Med by DF-27.

6- The use of the 076's catapult to launch cruise missiles

7- China deleting diesel generators from SSKs and using such SSKs in the middle of the Pacific. And such submarines getting charged by floating windmills

8- The 076 may be being optimized for pure electric UGVs and the ZBD-05 being replaced by a full-electric AFV!!!

Then of course there is that saga on the J-31 thread where you changed your point like 10 times and tried to gaslight multiple people.

You keep posting anything that sounds high-tech and exotic to you as a smart procurement idea. But you don't research why things are done like they are done presently or think about impracticalities of your high-tech ideas. It is how you suggest things like floating airports and SSKs without engines and the use of the J-20 with 2 guns against cheap drones.

Worse, when people point the problems with your ideas you get aggressive. You accuse others of misunderstanding you and you keep changing your point. In this discussion you have already done these several times. You are already accusing people of misunderstanding you (We don't. Believe me. It is just your suggestions are weird) and using a vulgar language. And I can't go without mentioning this. You very visibly have a grudge against Blitzo from the said J-31 discussion. A forum discussion is an "interesting" thing to hold a grudge for.
Did I just witness murder
 
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