J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

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Hyperwarp

Captain
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According to the Chinese AirForce magazine, J-20s participated in "Redsword-2018" as the Orange Faction and were defeated by the Red Faction (J-10C/J11B with AWAC and EW support). Both sides were engaged in close-quarter dogfights before the J-20s lost by a small margin.

Were they dog-fights from the start or started in BVR and moved to dog-fights? Even if it started in BVR, it still not supprising. They would lose a few eventually. As they train, the pilots of J-10C/J-11B would start adapting to the J-20 tactics. And when out numbered and with added AEW&C support once the J-10C and J-11B force the J-20 into dog-fights the odd even out heavily.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Were they dog-fights from the start or started in BVR and moved to dog-fights? Even if it started in BVR, it still not supprising. They would lose a few eventually. As they train, the pilots of J-10C/J-11B would start adapting to the J-20 tactics. And when out numbered and with added AEW&C support once the J-10C and J-11B force the J-20 into dog-fights the odd even out heavily.

The two J-20s involved were simulating Okinawa stationed F-22s interfering during aerial combat over the Taiwan Strait. The J-10Cs/J-11Bs, under AWAC guidance, approached the J-20s to visually identify and escort them from the combat zone. Dogfights ensued after visual confirmation.

The article stated that neither the J-10C nor the J-11B would've stood much of a chance if the J-20s opened fire beyond visual range. Also keep in mind that the J-10Cs/J-11Bs enjoyed support from AWACs, electronic warfare planes, and ground-based radar support.
 

Inst

Captain
Which is my point; i.e, counterstealth + 4th gen > 5th gen - counterstealth.

This actually gives us a bigger and more important question regarding the Su-57 mass production cancellation. Did the Russians delay the Su-57 mass production not because their Su-57 sucked or because the Russians didn't have the money, but because stealth aircraft weren't significantly superior to 4th gens with proper supporting assets?

Remember, the estimated cost of the J-20 is around 750m RMB, putting it around the same range as Eurofighters. On the other hand, it's still around 3-4 times as expensive as a fully modern J-10 and around twice as expensive as an Su-35.

The other question is, does 5th gen + counterstealth > 4th gen + counterstealth?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Which is my point; i.e, counterstealth + 4th gen > 5th gen - counterstealth.

This actually gives us a bigger and more important question regarding the Su-57 mass production cancellation. Did the Russians delay the Su-57 mass production not because their Su-57 sucked or because the Russians didn't have the money, but because stealth aircraft weren't significantly superior to 4th gens with proper supporting assets?

Remember, the estimated cost of the J-20 is around 750m RMB, putting it around the same range as Eurofighters. On the other hand, it's still around 3-4 times as expensive as a fully modern J-10 and around twice as expensive as an Su-35.

The other question is, does 5th gen + counterstealth > 4th gen + counterstealth?

How does counterstealth benefit 5th gens against 4th gens?

Besides, in this specific scenario, counter stealth wasn’t really much of a factor since the rules of engagement meant the J20s has to wait until the red force got visiual confirmation before engaging.

As such, the J20s were fighting without their primary advantage of stealth, and it was pretty much a pure dogfighting contest.

It is impressive that the J20, even with underpowered engines, is pretty much on par with J11s and J10s in WVR, since the later are some of the best WVR fighters around.

The J20 with WS15 would be an absolute beast.

This is more about the PLAAF stacking the odds against the J20 until they were overwhelmed, and should not be taken as an indication that 5th gens are without worth.

The Russians going cold feed on the Su57 seems to be along the same lines as why the Indians are backing out, and those are down to reservations about the performance of the Su57 specifically rather than stealth generally.
 

Hyperwarp

Captain
The two J-20s involved were simulating Okinawa stationed F-22s interfering during aerial combat over the Taiwan Strait. The J-10Cs/J-11Bs, under AWAC guidance, approached the J-20s to visually identify and escort them from the combat zone. Dogfights ensued after visual confirmation.

The article stated that neither the J-10C nor the J-11B would've stood much of a chance if the J-20s opened fire beyond visual range. Also keep in mind that the J-10Cs/J-11Bs enjoyed support from AWACs, electronic warfare planes, and ground-based radar support.

Thanx!

Just a good old fashion dogfight then. Any info on how many J-10C and J-11B took part? I am not surprised by the J-10C performance. It can carry the PL-10 but the J-11B is for the moment limited to the PL-8B.
 

Hyperwarp

Captain
Which is my point; i.e, counterstealth + 4th gen > 5th gen - counterstealth.

This actually gives us a bigger and more important question regarding the Su-57 mass production cancellation. Did the Russians delay the Su-57 mass production not because their Su-57 sucked or because the Russians didn't have the money, but because stealth aircraft weren't significantly superior to 4th gens with proper supporting assets?

Remember, the estimated cost of the J-20 is around 750m RMB, putting it around the same range as Eurofighters. On the other hand, it's still around 3-4 times as expensive as a fully modern J-10 and around twice as expensive as an Su-35.

The other question is, does 5th gen + counterstealth > 4th gen + counterstealth?

What exactly do you mean by "counterstealth"?
Regarding the Su-57, it very likely financial. Russia is feeling the squeeze.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Russia has been doing a lot of infrastructure investments lately. The military budget was cut. But I expect the Russian military budget to go up again in a couple of years once their major capital intensive projects, like the three major pipeline projects, are operational. Especially if oil & gas prices somehow continue their trend to rise up.

Already we hear about the resurgence of ISIL in Iraq for example. Then there is the incident with the Saudis and the news reporter which may grow into a larger event. Also MBS (the king of Saudi Arabia) keeps dumping more and more money into expensive infrastructure projects which seem to have little to no possibility of ever becoming profitable and viable. If the US escalates the situation with Iran the region will even become more unstable again. If Qatar gets invaded by the Saudis like what they did in Bahrain, same deal. So while the tendency for oil prices should be downwards, all this political instability might make them go up instead, and further increase the economic depressive effect of the trade tariffs. The USA might even think this will be in their interests because it will make oil fracking more profitable.

With regards to the J-20, like you guys said above, the situation was heavily slanted in the other fighter's favor by forcing the J-20 into a within visual range fight. This scenario they enacted is something that would typically happen in normal regular peacetime operations but not in case of an actual conflict. Similarly to what happened with the Type 051C, I think the Chinese consider the current J-20 version to be more of a test bed platform for stealth than something to mass produce, so I think they will keep the current production ratio and will build less than 80 aircraft then move to upgrade it with further improved engines, and control systems, etc.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
How does counterstealth benefit 5th gens against 4th gens?

Besides, in this specific scenario, counter stealth wasn’t really much of a factor since the rules of engagement meant the J20s has to wait until the red force got visiual confirmation before engaging.

As such, the J20s were fighting without their primary advantage of stealth, and it was pretty much a pure dogfighting contest.

It is impressive that the J20, even with underpowered engines, is pretty much on par with J11s and J10s in WVR, since the later are some of the best WVR fighters around.

The J20 with WS15 would be an absolute beast.

This is more about the PLAAF stacking the odds against the J20 until they were overwhelmed, and should not be taken as an indication that 5th gens are without worth.

The Russians going cold feed on the Su57 seems to be along the same lines as why the Indians are backing out, and those are down to reservations about the performance of the Su57 specifically rather than stealth generally.

Exactly, the J-20's were brought in simulating F-22's from Okinawa, so the mission set was to show the 4 gen driver's that they need not fear the F-22, as long as they rely on their AWAC's and EW support, Bam! mission accomplished

5 Gens come with a tremendous psychological advantage,, the purpose of this exercise is to communicate to the Chinese aviator's that 4 Gens can win, and its true, you fight the aircraft you have, but you have to fight it! you plan to WIN!
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Similarly to what happened with the Type 051C, I think the Chinese consider the current J-20 version to be more of a test bed platform for stealth than something to mass produce, so I think they will keep the current production ratio and will build less than 80 aircraft then move to upgrade it with further improved engines, and control systems, etc.

I think I know what you're saying, but comparing it with 051C is awkward, and making parallels between ships and aircraft is always dicey given the different nature of the key subsystems that make up their respective capability.

In the case of 051C, it was a ship that was only produced in a pair for a heap of reasons but perhaps first and foremost because it was a less risky air defence destroyer alternative if 052C faced major issues. As it was, 051C suffered from a variety of deficiencies ranging from its old steam turbine propulsion, using a less than ideal air defense system (foreign, lacking 360 degree PAR coverage), with other questionable design choices inherent to the pair (such no helicopter hangar as space taken up by the air defense system).

J-20 on the other hand, is an aircraft whose subsystems are virtually all or are soon to be all indigenously sourced. It is also not the "lower risk" alternative as 051C was to 052C, but rather J-20 is the only heavy weight stealth fighter the PLA will be buying in the near future.
Furthermore, any deficiencies that exist within the current J-20 variant will likely be corrected in future variants in an iterative manner in a far simpler way than it would've been to try to make a further variant of 051C.

Instead, I would say that the current J-20 variant (let's call it J-20A) would be more similar to 052C rather than 051C -- i.e.: not a "test bed" but rather the first design of a stealth fighter that they will produce in a decent (but not large) number that will provide key new capabilities in an operationally useful way, before moving onto a more "complete" variant (e.g.: having WS-15 and perhaps other iterative advancements) that will likely be produced in a larger number, like 052D.

So I agree that they probably won't produce many hundreds of the current J-20A variant, but I also think that they will produce enough such that they won't merely be "test aircraft" but rather form the core of an operationally useful stealth fighter capability, to be followed up with by a more complete J-20 variant with WS-15 engines and other improvements that will be mass produced in the longer term. Of course, if WS-15 is significantly delayed I imagine J-20A production using interim engines (Al31 or WS-10 variant) to continue for longer in which case more J-20As may be produced than otherwise expected.

If I had to compare the current J-20A to a PLA ship class, I would say it is best compared to 052C, with a follow on "J-20B" (with WS-15s etc) likely to be the equivalent of 052D -- but even such a comparison is not perfect.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Which is my point; i.e, counterstealth + 4th gen > 5th gen - counterstealth.

This actually gives us a bigger and more important question regarding the Su-57 mass production cancellation. Did the Russians delay the Su-57 mass production not because their Su-57 sucked or because the Russians didn't have the money, but because stealth aircraft weren't significantly superior to 4th gens with proper supporting assets?

Remember, the estimated cost of the J-20 is around 750m RMB, putting it around the same range as Eurofighters. On the other hand, it's still around 3-4 times as expensive as a fully modern J-10 and around twice as expensive as an Su-35.

The other question is, does 5th gen + counterstealth > 4th gen + counterstealth?

Leaving aside the cost of J-20 (which is yet to be determined by rumours let alone what its long term cost may be once in larger batch production) -- the combat scenario described was one where the orange force J-20s were essentially unable to leverage their stealth and BVR advantages, and were only permitted to engage the red force 5th gen fighters once they'd entered visual range.

And all this required support of AEW&C and EW aircraft for the 4th gen J-10s and J-11s to have a fighting chance to even get into visual range of the orange J-20s in the first place -- and even then the 4th gen fighters only managed to eke out a win in WVR.


In a true, equal sided combat scenario where the 5th gen aircraft were able to make use of their rf stealth and BVR weapons, the scenario would've likely ended much differently.
 
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