J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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Once someone new is identified to have potential in whatever final department they end up in, there is a good chance they work on everything. Most projects are not parallel in chengdu due to lack of labour.
First, thank you for your very insightful post. I know you were talking mostly in a historical sense about your great-uncle's time at 611, but is there still a labour shortage there? What were the causes of the shortage and have they been/are they being addressed?

Yes. There are others just as good, but are hidden from the media spot light. Very secretive organisation.
It's actually very comforting to learn that. It would be risky to put so much of China's aerospace advancement on the shoulders of one prodigy, no matter how intellectually gifted. It's good to know others are toiling away in the shadows, far from prying eyes.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
It would make sense for a country with resourceful enemies to hide their real talent. The face is never the real deal but the face is important propaganda tool to get public morale behind the organisation and encourage youngsters to pursue technical education if these "supermen" can be glorified like celebrities a little. Better to have young minds looking up to an accomplished engineer than pop idols.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
First, thank you for your very insightful post. I know you were talking mostly in a historical sense about your great-uncle's time at 611, but is there still a labour shortage there? What were the causes of the shortage and have they been/are they being addressed?


It's actually very comforting to learn that. It would be risky to put so much of China's aerospace advancement on the shoulders of one prodigy, no matter how intellectually gifted. It's good to know others are toiling away in the shadows, far from prying eyes.
There is always a shortage.

To stay on topic, when the J20 was first conceptualised in the early 2000s (this is when most people were waiting for the J10), only the super senior guys worked on the J20. J10 design was pretty much finalised already and the development map planned.

For the J20 itself there was a shortage of senior engineers and junior engineer once J10 finished by late 2000s. This is due to CAC being extremely selective when hiring. Not only do they need extremely good grades, family background check is done as well. When I say family, it means to the n-th degree. Those with some military background like gone to a military university get fast tracked because background check is done earlier.

For the J20 project, only 1/2 to 2/3 of the engineering and crafting people can be initially filled. Even some of the old guys like my uncle was not allowed to retire, to use their expertise and to meet schedule. Also they bought back retired engineers to boost numbers.

Full team wasn't actually established until closer to 2010, heard my uncle say when he go for interviews, the quality of kids are lacking. If really good, they will everything they can to hire.

Good designers/drafters are harder to get, because vocational education in China is weak. Kids with good grades go to university and not vocational college (for u Americans, college means vocational school to me).

Apparently 611 is constantly looking for talent. J20 team is still fully staffed, but the next 2 projects are understaffed.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
This sounds similar to what I have heard with regards to the semiconductor design industry. The initial basic design is done with an extremely small team of people (2-3 people max) for like six months or a year. Then that team gets increased to like one dozen or two dozen people who work 2-3 years to mature the design concept, only later do they bring the whole design teams to work on details which might be a hundred people or more. Typically once a design is finished on the mature design stage then another small team is selected to begin to design the next generation. Smaller organizations only have one flow line like this. But larger organizations have like 2-3 basic design teams to weed out bad concept designs at an early stage. They also might have a separate team which is kept working on refining an already produced design while the new design still doesn't require all that many people in it and is far away from production. Those people are then moved to the new design team once it is mature. This ensures you have at least one competitive design always in production.

Since China follows the Soviet practice of having multiple design bureaus competing against each other at the design and prototype stage the 2-3 internal basic design team approach is IMHO not useful. In this case you have CAC and Shenyang for fighter design. Something similar applies to the trainer aircraft where you have two companies competing. However in the case of the large airplane design teams, like Xian, I don't know how they operate but that probably is a limitation. In that AFAIK Xian have like no competition in the system. So the only way to inject competition is to buy a design from outside, as was done with the Y-20, so they can compare that against their own design, and make improvements. The Soviet Tu-160 for example, was a result of a competition where three design teams proposed a design: Tupolev, Myasishchev, and Sukhoi. In the end it was decided the Myasishchev design was superior but because Myasishchev had no experience with detailed design of large aircraft Tupolev was entrusted to bring the Myasishchev design to production. Which they did and it was a successful aircraft.

That is a weakness in large Chinese aircraft design IMHO. Either Xian incorporates more internal competition into design, or China will have to continue importing designs from abroad, I also think the window might be closing on China relying on Ukraine for technical help on this regard since the USA is increasingly asserting its power there. Ukraine is presently under a huge IMF loan which definitively place them under USA vassalage. I think the fact that China did not import Ukrainian aviation turbine technology when they could and overly relied on their native design was a missed opportunity for example.
Progress and Lotarev were the leading civilian engine design companies in the Soviet Union. We also heard a lot about licensed An-225 production, for example, but I assume that was a bit of a red herring since An-124 production would be much more in China's interest and both use similar technology.

Anyways, assuming the practice is similar to the chip design practice I said above, I assume there are at least two teams at CAC right now. One working on J-20 design improvements, as was done to the J-10 in its many iterations, and another working on a new design, which I assume can either be the FC-31 competitor aircraft or a novel 5th "Chinese" generation design. Assuming there are new J-20 revisions, which features do you think will be most likely? Besides the new engines. I would assume either an improved radar, or improved situational awareness either with helmet mounted sights, automated AI pilot assists, or extended range versions. I could see it in an improved version supplementing the J-16 in the fighter bomber role for example.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Reportedly there only 1 J20 came out for the past 3 months. Wow.

Opponent is Not going to wait for fine tuning of their engine.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Reportedly there only 1 J20 came out for the past 3 months. Wow.

Opponent is Not going to wait for fine tuning of their engine.

Sources or are you making stuff up yet again?

How could J-20 production have been far greater than 1/month in the past and slowed down? Have they discovered major errors in the production process? It surely couldn't be a design fault otherwise it would be 0/month until they corrected that. So production problem it is. Then I ask why were previous rates higher? Production can only ever improve and rate increase unless the factory has been bombed.

If they're slowing it down because WS-15 is almost ready, then that's only great news. I doubt they'd slow the rate down to 1/month unless WS-15 is 100% completed and first operation units are being assembled right now, so it would make little sense to build excess J-20 units with AL-31/WS-10 type engines.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
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Sources or are you making stuff up yet again?

How could J-20 production have been far greater than 1/month in the past and slowed down? Have they discovered major errors in the production process? It surely couldn't be a design fault otherwise it would be 0/month until they corrected that. So production problem it is. Then I ask why were previous rates higher? Production can only ever improve and rate increase unless the factory has been bombed.

If they're slowing it down because WS-15 is almost ready, then that's only great news. I doubt they'd slow the rate down to 1/month unless WS-15 is 100% completed and first operation units are being assembled right now, so it would make little sense to build excess J-20 units with AL-31/WS-10 type engines.

I can't make up shit out of blue.

WS15? Two more years.
excess j20? Less than 20 now is excessive?
It takes alot more to be qualified as excess.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I can't make up shit out of blue.

WS15? Two more years.
excess j20? Less than 20 now is excessive?
It takes alot more to be qualified as excess. War is on the horizon. Hellooo

lol you didn't understand my post. I said if the WS-15 engine is nearly ready, it would make sense to slow down J-20 production rate to avoid excess J-20 with less than desirable engines. That's what's excessive. Perhaps the subtlety is lost on you. I guess you know when war will happen then? Another inside source of your's who you refuse to disclose?

Oh and yes you are making shit up. Or back it up. Saying "war is on the horizon" is the definition of making shit up.
 
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