J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

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tidalwave

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@tidalwave

STOP with this constant war-mongering !

We talking production issue. There certainly urgency given political climate.
There's jet production and also the engine production.
Even if ws15 is successful, no body know how many of them can be cranked out.

This is on top of the jet itself production issue.
Double whammy
People are using waiting for Ws15 as the excuse as why j20 number is low. I don't think so.

For every product, its success is depending on production rate.
For example Tesla model 3, if Tesla cannot crank out certain number then model 3 would be deemed as failure.

Similarly, if j20 cannot crank out a certain number then it would be a failure
 
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manqiangrexue

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Did you or him see any new planes with new serial number came out? And how many? That answers the question.
That is an extremely stupid and unscientific way to approach the question of evidence and it answers absolutely nothing. I didn't see any come out, so that number could be 0, all the way up to whatever. For you to claim that 1 came out in 3 months, you would need to provide the official statement. If you can't and you found 1 with a new serial number, then you can post the picture and claim that number to be "at least 1." That's how evidence works and that's how questions are actually answered.

I got it from watching Chinese program
Sounds good. I saw 100 come out, also from "watching Chinese program." LOL
 

Blitzo

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Did you or him see any new planes with new serial number came out? And how many? That answers the question.
I got it from watching Chinese program

We rely on photos from SAC, CAC, and operational units to estimate the no. of fighters whether it's J-11s, J-16s, J-10s, or J-20s.


The problem is that we do not have anything near constant photos of the factories or the various units that may be operating those fighters. It's been a long time since we've seen multiple fresh, serial Flankers or J-10s or J-20s at their respective factories.
But that doesn't mean new fighters aren't being produced. Just because we don't have photos of events happening doesn't mean those events haven't happened -- it just means that we haven't seen them happen.


More importantly, everyone knows that the govt and PLA closely monitor what photos of the factories and the operational units are allowed to be taken and to be released online, so chances are there are things happening that we are not able to know.


In short, just because we haven't seen new planes come out doesn't mean new planes haven't been coming out. Of course, it means we cannot have a good, reliable estimate as to the true number of fighters that exist at any one time, but it also means you can't say with a straight face that your "watching" is useful in trying to determine the number of fighters that have been produced.
 

tidalwave

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We rely on photos from SAC, CAC, and operational units to estimate the no. of fighters whether it's J-11s, J-16s, J-10s, or J-20s.


The problem is that we do not have anything near constant photos of the factories or the various units that may be operating those fighters. It's been a long time since we've seen multiple fresh, serial Flankers or J-10s or J-20s at their respective factories.
But that doesn't mean new fighters aren't being produced. Just because we don't have photos of events happening doesn't mean those events haven't happened -- it just means that we haven't seen them happen.


More importantly, everyone knows that the govt and PLA closely monitor what photos of the factories and the operational units are allowed to be taken and to be released online, so chances are there are things happening that we are not able to know.


In short, just because we haven't seen new planes come out doesn't mean new planes haven't been coming out. Of course, it means we cannot have a good, reliable estimate as to the true number of fighters that exist at any one time, but it also means you can't say with a straight face that your "watching" is useful in trying to determine the number of fighters that have been produced.
In Chinese forum, they all talk about low number of j20. Less than 20 total.

This is not just me talking
 

Blitzo

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In Chinese forum, they all talk about low number of j20. Less than 20 total.

This is not just me talking

Feel free to provide us the links to the forums that you're referencing and we can judge for ourselves.
 

siegecrossbow

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由解放军报社主办的《中国空军》双月刊杂志,最新一期曝光了空军“红剑-2018”体系对抗演习中的一些细节,两架歼20模拟“橙军”强势介入,然而却首尝败绩。


配图中准备升空的歼20和歼10C战机

以下为部分文字实录:‘橙'军某型战机1批2架即将进入空中拒止区,高度xx,航向xx...,“刚刚结束的一场演习,诸如引入实案,增进“橙军”等变化,让不少飞行员深刻体会到了“参演就是参战”的真谛。据介绍,此次演习导入强敌由常规干预向深度介入,让“战场”态势变得更加扑朔迷离。

电磁干扰如影随形,侦察与反侦察彼消此长...北部战区空军航空兵某部部队长程远森此次率队和30多家单位一道扮演“红军”。他们在复杂电磁环境中紧贴实战,紧盯现实威胁,根据预警机提供的信息支援,对“橙军”战机进行警告,外逼。


配图中的歼20特写镜头

驱离过程中,只见双方战机不时近距缠斗,一度出现胶着状态,出现持久局面,最终艰难达成拒止目的。

动以上文中提到的“橙军”“深度介入”“拒止”等词汇看,研判“橙军”应该模拟的是驻日F22的深度介入,由此双方展开了一场介入/拒止性质的空中对抗。

从配图看,一架编号为78277的歼-20和一架僚机扮演了介入者“强敌”的角色,来自北部战区的歼10C和歼11B在预警机和电子干扰机的配合下,与两架歼20展开了近距缠斗,场面惊心动魄,歼10C和歼11B最终艰难险胜,歼20小败,这应该是官媒八股文中歼20第一次败阵。


“红剑-2018”中的歼10C战斗机

从之前的一些演习结果分析,歼20都取得了非凡的战绩,甚至将歼10打成10:0。但此次歼20明显小败,但也不能说明什么,红方有体系支撑,有30多家单位一道扮演“红军”,另有预警机、电子战机、地面雷达等支援,两架歼20则是单打独斗的孤狼,二者文中也未给出参与对抗的歼10C和歼11B有多少架。

歼10C具备优秀的空战性能、歼11B则是重型空优战斗机,从文中“不时近距缠斗”看,双方是近距格斗,并不是歼20最擅长的超视距作战,两型机再配合预警机、电子战机及地面雷达等,歼20胜算变的越来越小。如果是中远距对抗,3/3.5代机根本不可能接近歼20,更别奢谈近距缠斗了。


试训基地中一架“橙军”歼20出机库

在西方军队模拟空战中,三代机也有击败F22的记录,但无一例外都是在预警机和电子战机、地面雷达的体系配合下实现的,说明电磁权和信息权的重要性。

再者,歼20的强项是超音速机动性,歼20飞行员曾说过,“一旦进入超音速,就是它的天下”。但F22的超音速机动能力不突出,而歼20既然是模拟F22,那么就要进入不擅长的亚音速格斗,实战中歼20肯定不会这样打。即便条件对自己不利,但还是出现了“胶着”、“持久”、“最终艰难达成拒止”,歼10C和歼11B赢得异常艰难。

未来,歼20以第三者“橙军”角色参与体系对抗的次数会增多,以“压倒性”优势取胜的几率会逐渐减少,我军大批3/3.5代机也会逐渐积累出对付隐身战机的经验,这是好现象!

According to the Chinese AirForce magazine, J-20s participated in "Redsword-2018" as the Orange Faction and were defeated by the Red Faction (J-10C/J11B with AWAC and EW support). Both sides were engaged in close-quarter dogfights before the J-20s lost by a small margin.
 

Air Force Brat

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According to the Chinese AirForce magazine, J-20s participated in "Redsword-2018" as the Orange Faction and were defeated by the Red Faction (J-10C/J11B with AWAC and EW support). Both sides were engaged in close-quarter dogfights before the J-20s lost by a small margin.

I'm not terribly surprised, those Chinese 4 Gens are "top-notch", and AWAC and EW support are indeed game changers,,, it would also turn on whether or not the J-20's where flying with the Luneberg Lens?
 
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