J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

[vincent]

What is the point of all these talk about the cost of the planes? We have no idea what the price of the BOMs or even what the BOMs are, nor the labour cost for assemblying the planes. Everyone outside of PLA or maybe NSA are pulling numbers out of their asses

 

[FORBIN]

Tidal The Cost of Military hardware is based around numbers built and R&D $120M is comparatively low for a cutting edge fighter with less then 2 dozen built. ( In fact I am betting that the actual cost would be far higher at this point with the 120m being more of a intended price once in production)
If They upgrade the engine They will increase the cost but If they go into mas production then the price per unit will drop as they build more and more.

R&D cost in China are always separated and they have budgets planned on 5 years, Five Year Plans as USSR did before.

 

[FORBIN]

What is the point of all these talk about the cost of the planes? We have no idea what the price of the BOMs or even what the BOMs are, nor the labour cost for assemblying the planes. Everyone outside of PLA or maybe NSA are pulling numbers out of their asses

For know qty...

 

[FORBIN]

Exactly so, wouldn't really surprise me if these initial birds are 200 million, although that would likely be an upper limit, and the Chinese do calculate these expenses a bit differently. and I would count production right at an even dozen, with 16 being a generous estimate of the top end, though I really don't know?

With this price to 120 millions we can enviseged i think lots by year of saying 12 in fact 2 years of production for equip a Rgt.

Max rate of production for F-22, 24/year but to about 180 mill the fighter !!! he have "eat " all the budget, the 195 have costed about the same price as 563 Super Hornet for USN...

China even if she build more cheaper with a budget of 150 /200 billions can' t afford many J-20 obviously and need again J-10 or others less expensive for completed as do Russians.

Undoubtedly Navy has priority for procurement funds.

 

[FORBIN]

$120 million sounds reasonable for initial LRIP planes, but I expect the price to drop once mass batch production occurs, as is standard for these sort of things.

Not sure the price decrease, Henri K say it for 055 and he understand Chinese you can see her files... and he get very well informed with files in Chinese.

Note that, unlike naval contracts in France, the series effect does not work in China. R & D program costs are paid separately and do not smooth depending on the number of commissioned buildings. The construction cost of each vessel is fixed early on and next year plan.

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[AndrewS]

We can see production costs for the Arleigh Burke and F-35 decreasing from first build.

Eg. 9million man-hours to 5million man hours for the Arleigh Burke. The cost decreases from each batch of F-35.

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@FORBIN

If look at a 10 year production run for the J-20, we have to consider that the defence budget will roughly double to $400-$600billion by 2025.

I expect they would start with a lower production rate of say 12-24 aircraft for a few years first. If they're happy, then ramp up production to benefit from manufacturing improvements and economies of scale.

Plus I expect the J-20 to have a higher priority for procurement funds than any of the Navy projects, as it is key to providing air cover for Navy ships and also in projecting power in the Western Pacific eg. over Korea, Taiwan, Okinawa, SCS etc

 

[AndrewS]

If we look at a 12 year production run with 24 per year, that comes to around 300 aircraft.

I reckon it could be much higher, but that decision probably won't be made for another 3+ years yet.

 

[siegecrossbow]

From what I've heard the J-31 cost around 60% as much as the J-20. I think that China and most of the countries not named U.S.A. will primarily be fielding 4th or 4++ gen fighters in the near future.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Another Factor to consider is the Variety of J20's We have seen. Overall They share common features and an overall but It's likely that a good chunk of these machines are never intended to see the world beyond the testing ranges.

 

[Air Force Brat]

From what I've heard the J-31 cost around 60% as much as the J-20. I think that China and most of the countries not named U.S.A. will primarily be fielding 4th or 4++ gen fighters in the near future.

South Korea, Japan, and Australia will all be getting the F-35! possibly India??? but who knows, India is still "dreaming" of FGFA???, but China will no doubt move ahead on J-20 production, even though there is little doubt that the Carriers have priority at this particular juncture. Other Air Force Brats on here agree with the "big Brat", I believe the Navy in the PLA has the clout at present, and the idea of an aircraft carrier, and the "sand bar bases", which in effect will function as Satelite Carriers at anchor, will function as a "forward operating area", to project power into and through the SCS.

While J-20s could conceivably be based on these sandbars, they likely will not. More likely to be populated by the erasable Flanker, in significant numbers, with full fuel and weapons, 10,000 will be a "NO SWEAT", ops area. The J-20s will be used in pairs, and likely "rotate" through just as the US uses our relatively more scarce F-22s, but we shall see?? The Marines will have 6 F-35Bs cruising the Far East very soon, and the J-20's will likely fly out to meet them on their initial "operational combat air patrols"! write it down, you heard it here first!