J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

[AndrewS]

$120 million sounds plausible.

But the important thing is to improve production cost/speed with manufacturing improvements

 

[Deino]

... and maybe even production rate !

Not sure if CAC is not able to manufacture only so few J-10 per month but - similar to other Chinese factories - the monthly rate seems very low (IMO).

Deino

 

[Air Force Brat]

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J-20 (recently sighted in Yading airport) in flight!

... and maybe even production rate !

Not sure if CAC is not able to manufacture only so few J-10 per month but - similar to other Chinese factories - the monthly rate seems very low (IMO).

Deino

and in that vein, I would remind all that the initial F-22s are basically hand-built, and that panels from one aircraft, often would not fit another, they got better, and the F-35 has very, very high production tolerances, fifth gens of necessity require much finer production tolerances and are slow in development and building??

USAF now has 100 F-35As on the most sophisticated production line in the world, and NorthRupp builds all the center fuse/wing junctures on a robotic assembly line. All the welding is Robotic and precise, very demanding.

 

[Quickie]

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J-20 (recently sighted in Yading airport) in flight!

I don't mean to burst the bubble but any possibility it's just a RC model. Its overall shape and vertical stabilizers look different.

 

[FORBIN]

... and maybe even production rate !

Not sure if CAC is not able to manufacture only so few J-10 per month but - similar to other Chinese factories - the monthly rate seems very low (IMO).

Deino

Only a simple comparison for get an idea about an eventual rate of production,

One J-10A 28 millions $ in 2010 saying J-10B in 2016 around 30 millions $, for number about 45 build by year
And considering one J-20 to 120 millions $

I let's you calculate but definitely not big lots...

 

[siegecrossbow]

I don't mean to burst the bubble but any possibility it's just a RC model. Its overall shape and vertical stabilizers look different.

I don't think so. Since the photo is so blurry the overall shape and proportions might be subject to distortion.

 

[tidalwave]

what? a J20 with outdated engine already cost $120mil? If it later added brand new WS15 supercruising engine, then it would cost something like $150 mil?


No way..

 

[Blitzo]

$120 million sounds reasonable for initial LRIP planes, but I expect the price to drop once mass batch production occurs, as is standard for these sort of things.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Tidal The Cost of Military hardware is based around numbers built and R&D $120M is comparatively low for a cutting edge fighter with less then 2 dozen built. ( In fact I am betting that the actual cost would be far higher at this point with the 120m being more of a intended price once in production)
If They upgrade the engine They will increase the cost but If they go into mas production then the price per unit will drop as they build more and more.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Tidal The Cost of Military hardware is based around numbers built and R&D $120M is comparatively low for a cutting edge fighter with less then 2 dozen built. ( In fact I am betting that the actual cost would be far higher at this point with the 120m being more of a intended price once in production)
If They upgrade the engine They will increase the cost but If they go into mas production then the price per unit will drop as they build more and more.

Exactly so, wouldn't really surprise me if these initial birds are 200 million, although that would likely be an upper limit, and the Chinese do calculate these expenses a bit differently. and I would count production right at an even dozen, with 16 being a generous estimate of the top end, though I really don't know?