J-10 Thread IV

[sequ]

The J-10A was in serial production from 2003-2013. That means most J-10A air frames are only 10 to 20 years old. I'm having a hard time believing that they are already under consideration for retirement.

IIRC, I read somewhere, (could be here) that the earlier J-10's had relatively low service life which was gradually improved in the following batches.

 

[Deino]

the interesting thing is that the J-10 appears with the colors of North Korea, but even more interesting is that on August 23, 2017 a photo of Kim Jong Un was disclosed in front of a painting which, if looked at carefully, seems to show a J -10.
View attachment 123096

View attachment 123097

who knows if......

Yes for sure it is a J-10C in NK colors since it is a fan-made what if image … made as a joke just for fun!

 

[Totoro]

IIRC, I read somewhere, (could be here) that the earlier J-10's had relatively low service life which was gradually improved in the following batches.

Well, regular mig-21 aiframes were often flown from anywhere from 2400 to 3000 hours by various air forces. (After refurbishment) India claims its bisons flew to even 3400 hours.
It's not unlikely that Chengdu's j-7 were made to fly for at least that long. After all, back in 2020 there were still some j-7h units, which were then flying 30 year old airframes. Even at just 100 hours per pilot and 1.3 pilots per plane that's close to 4000 hours.
At least some j-7e are thought to still fly in plaaf. Production of those ended in 2001. So those are 22 year airframes , or older. But those surely flew more than j7h back in the day.

If j-10a aiframes flew 200 hours per year (155 per pilot, 1.3 pilots per plane) then yeah, there is a chance initial airframes might be ready to retire. Providing they were made good for 4000 hours. Which is a guess. But a higher figure than mig21 seems quite likely.

Question is, have j10 pilots flown for 150+ hours way back in 2003? In the last 5-10 years, sure they might have. But in 2000s and early 2010s? Not so sure.

 

[AndrewS]

I agree, as long as the PLAAF operates still a few J-7 and J-8 and the J-10A can be MLU-ed with new AESA to AG-stnadard maybe even including WS-10B engines it makes no sense at all to retire them.

I thought all the J-7 units have been retired already?

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The Chinese Air Force is moving to a power projection strategy operating offshore.

That suits larger heavyweight twin-engine fighter-sized airframes like the J-20, JH-7 and Flankers.

A smaller single-engine J-10 is shorter ranged, and is more suited to CAP and defensive counter air missions.

But if all the J-10A are MLU-ed with AESA to AG-standard, then there will be about 800 J-10 in total.

You would have at least 28 brigades of J-10, but if you were to look at the possible CAP and DCA missions/locations, this looks excessive.

So it would make sense to retire some, if not most of the J-10A. These just become part of the attrition reserve airframes.

Remember we're now looking at annual production of:

100-120? J-20
24-40? J-16

If the Chinese Air Force is going to be procuring 160 heavyweight fighters per year, then they're going to have to start forming entirely new brigades anyway, given how most of the existing fleet is mainly comprised of 4.5Gen fighters which are pretty new

So they might as well start replacing 4Gen J-10A brigades with the J-20.

 

[Deino]

I thought all the J-7 units have been retired already?

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The Chinese Air Force is moving to a power projection strategy operating offshore.

That suits larger heavyweight twin-engine fighter-sized airframes like the J-20, JH-7 and Flankers.

A smaller single-engine J-10 is shorter ranged, and is more suited to CAP and defensive counter air missions.

But if all the J-10A are MLU-ed with AESA to AG-standard, then there will be about 800 J-10 in total.

You would have at least 28 brigades of J-10, but if you were to look at the possible CAP and DCA missions/locations, this looks excessive.

So it would make sense to retire some, if not most of the J-10A. These just become part of the attrition reserve airframes.

Remember we're now looking at annual production of:

100-120? J-20
24-40? J-16

If the Chinese Air Force is going to be procuring 160 heavyweight fighters per year, then they're going to have to start forming entirely new brigades anyway, given how most of the existing fleet is mainly comprised of 4.5Gen fighters which are pretty new

So they might as well start replacing 4Gen J-10A brigades with the J-20.

First … I would be careful with these very high claimed numbers; we have credible rumours for about 80-100 J-20 pear year but not for 120. IMO it seems as if this is the planned production capacity, but nothing what they already build at the moment.

And yes, they are indeed replacing J-10 units with J-20 but that does not mean they are scrapped even more as long as there are J-7/8s in service.

 

[AndrewS]

First … I would be careful with these very high claimed numbers; we have credible rumours for about 80-100 J-20 pear year but not for 120. IMO it seems as if this is the planned production capacity, but nothing what they already build at the moment.

And yes, they are indeed replacing J-10 units with J-20 but that does not mean they are scrapped even more as long as there are J-7/8s in service.

Are there actually still J-7s in service?

NB. The more I look at it, the more convinced I am that Chinese plans are to match or outbuild the US military in every aspect.
We've already seen this happen across pretty much every Naval category and most Air Force categories.

 

[Totoro]

First … I would be careful with these very high claimed numbers; we have credible rumours for about 80-100 J-20 pear year but not for 120. IMO it seems as if this is the planned production capacity, but nothing what they already build at the moment.

And yes, they are indeed replacing J-10 units with J-20 but that does not mean they are scrapped even more as long as there are J-7/8s in service.

Indeed, it does seem that for some time now (5+ years) there's been more planes produced per year than there have been planes retired. So overall force seems to be growing. Though number of units/brigades doesn't seem to be growing as much. Does that suggest that units themselves are getting more planes? Say, some increasing from 24 to 30+ planes?

Still not sure on J-8 being around. Not the combat variants at any rate. As far as I can tell, only recon variants have remained in service.

 

[AndrewS]

Indeed, it does seem that for some time now (5+ years) there's been more planes produced per year than there have been planes retired. So overall force seems to be growing. Though number of units/brigades doesn't seem to be growing as much. Does that suggest that units themselves are getting more planes? Say, some increasing from 24 to 30+ planes?

Aren't the J-20 brigades only 20 aircraft versus 24 for J-10/Flanker units?

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If you have too many J-10A units AND you have a lot of new J-20 coming, THEN you might as well convert some J-10A brigades to the J-20.

With the spare J-10A, allocating them as attrition/spares to an existing Brigade is the logical first action.

You get lower operating costs and increased availability as a result, whilst making space for a new J-20 Brigade.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Aren't the J-20 brigades only 20 aircraft versus 24 for J-10/Flanker units?

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If you have too many J-10A units AND you have a lot of new J-20 coming, THEN you might as well convert some J-10A brigades to the J-20.

With the spare J-10A, allocating them as attrition/spares to an existing Brigade is the logical first action.

You get lower operating costs and increased availability as a result, whilst making space for a new J-20 Brigade.

A better place to send them would be the cadet training camp in Shijiazhuang.

 

[AndrewS]

A better place to send them would be the cadet training camp in Shijiazhuang.

We started hearing about J-10A being sent to training units previously.

This was last year?