J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)

[plawolf]

I think I agree with the hard substance of your analysis, but I disagree with the characterization of Japan's behavior. I don't think either side was sincere about using force, and both sides knew this. Both sides have incentive to posture and bluff over the islands, but neither have a real incentive for this to escalate into a firefight. Abe is following through with some campaign promises, and his movements are largely symbolic to consolidate his base of support on the nationalist flank (and also, I suspect, to consolidate support for increasing military spending for various reasons that deal with Japan's long term security). Meanwhile, I probably don't have to explain that China has incentive to follow through with its own posturing, given the number of parties it must deal with on territorial disputes. I do think that both sides recognize that this as a cat and mouse game necessary to sustain their credibility on different political fronts. So far nothing about this set of incidents deviate from other similar incidents that have occurred in the last decade or so.

Where did I say I thought the Japanese were seriously wanting to escalate the situation into an actual shooting war?

Both sides are mainly posturing, but when Japanese government officials go on record suggesting their pilots fire warning shots, it would be foolish and irresponsible for the PLAAF to dismiss that out of hand and not take precautions and countermeasures.

However, I think you are too easily dismissing just how dangerous the situation is, because it is very very different to anything that has happened before between China and Japan. The relative economic, political and military strengths of China and Japan has shifted massively compared to a decade ago. Then, the Japanese had undisputed military superiority and everyone knew it. But that is not the case any more and everyone is still adjusting to the new dynamic.

Both sides are also in uncharted waters with regards to the actual dispute, with Chinese ships and aircraft treating the Diaoyu Islands as Chinese territory and actual fighters from both sides facing off against each other, with neither side really knowing what the bottom line of the other is, and both sides constantly testing each other with new situations to see what their responses are.

It is this new and changing dynamic that holds the greatest potential for unintentional conflict, and that is before you take into account the deep mistrust and perhaps downright hostility the two militaries feel towards each other.

Neither side likely wants to war, but neither side can be absolutely sure that the other won't try to deliberately cause some sort of incident to gain an advantage, so there is real scope for misunderstanding and hostilities to break out because of it. And once the first spark has been struck, it's anyone's guess how big the conflagration will ultimately be.

 

[latenlazy]

Where did I say I thought the Japanese were seriously wanting to escalate the situation into an actual shooting war?

Both sides are mainly posturing, but when Japanese government officials go on record suggesting their pilots fire warning shots, it would be foolish and irresponsible for the PLAAF to dismiss that out of hand and not take precautions and countermeasures.

However, I think you are too easily dismissing just how dangerous the situation is, because it is very very different to anything that has happened before between China and Japan. The relative economic, political and military strengths of China and Japan has shifted massively compared to a decade ago. Then, the Japanese had undisputed military superiority and everyone knew it. But that is not the case any more and everyone is still adjusting to the new dynamic.

Both sides are also in uncharted waters with regards to the actual dispute, with Chinese ships and aircraft treating the Diaoyu Islands as Chinese territory and actual fighters from both sides facing off against each other, with neither side really knowing what the bottom line of the other is, and both sides constantly testing each other with new situations to see what their responses are.

It is this new and changing dynamic that holds the greatest potential for unintentional conflict, and that is before you take into account the deep mistrust and perhaps downright hostility the two militaries feel towards each other.

Neither side likely wants to war, but neither side can be absolutely sure that the other won't try to deliberately cause some sort of incident to gain an advantage, so there is real scope for misunderstanding and hostilities to break out because of it. And once the first spark has been struck, it's anyone's guess how big the conflagration will ultimately be.

Well, I didn't say that you were saying that, but I did get the impression that you were implying Japan's threats might be sincere. That said, I also mentioned that China has every reason to retaliate with its own posturing. The behavior is obligated by China's geopolitical landscape. Anyways, my main goal was to just flesh out the context a bit.

While the recent incidents have certainly been a departure from incidents earlier in the last decade, that has been less true for recent years, such as the entire ordeal with the arrested fisherman. I agree that on the long term the two countries relationships are teetering over some troubled waters, but I see no real risk of conflict with this current Japanese regime. Abe's political life depends on Japan's economic performance, which Japan's relationship to China will be an important (though perhaps not key) component of. I should probably caveat that this is only a take on the short term dynamics between the two countries. My analysis was focused on this narrow subset of events. It is not a description of what I think the future will look like.

I hope you don't take my explanation to be dismissive of the real risks these kinds of interactions have. I personally do not believe this specific event has a risk of spilling over into something more serious. That doesn't mean I don't think similar events in the future will necessary be like that.

As mentioned early, I agree that the potential for unintended conflict is only increasing. My hope is that increasing economic co-dependence will keep any potential exchange of fire brief and dampen any conflict from getting out of hand, but I think history has demonstrated that economic relationships are imperfect reins, and there's a good chance that any form of economic dependence will not be congruent or completely reciprocal.

 

[MiG-29]

Well, I didn't say that you were saying that, but I did get the impression that you were implying Japan's threats might be sincere. That said, I also mentioned that China has every reason to retaliate with its own posturing. The behavior is obligated by China's geopolitical landscape. Anyways, my main goal was to just flesh out the context a bit.

[video=youtube;Wc5hOvd-28g]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc5hOvd-28g[/video]
[video=youtube;SJvAQfcQqKE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJvAQfcQqKE[/video]
Japanese view of the event, translation not needed since they say J-10s sent as a result of F-15Js

 

[latenlazy]

[video=youtube;Wc5hOvd-28g]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc5hOvd-28g[/video]
[video=youtube;SJvAQfcQqKE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJvAQfcQqKE[/video]
Japanese view of the event, translation not needed since they say J-10s sent as a result of F-15Js

In this case, public opinion matters less than the calculus of the political leadership.

 

[franco-russe]

When did the 34th convert to J7Gs?

I do not know exactly, but J-7G was produced from 2004 to about 2008, and 34 Regt got newbuilt planes. It was incidentally formed at Wendeng from 92 Regt of 31 Div, which was disbanded in 1998.

The other J-7G regiments are 15 Div 44 Regt Bikeqi (ex 7 Div 20 Regt in 2012), which got the J-7GB of 8-1 Aerobatic Group in 2009 and 24 Div 72 Zhunhua, which got the J-7G from 37 Div 110 Regt when the latter converted to JH-7A in early 2012.

It has probably not escaped your attention that the acknowledged (though not perfect) source on Chinese military aviation order of battle is the Dutch Scramble

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.

If you have similar observations from Chinese military airfields like the one at Wendeng, I would be very pleased to hear about, as it was in fact, as I said, a valuable report.

 

[tphuang]

guys, let's get back to topic and J-10 and drop this Japan stuff.

 

[A.Man]

Nice Loaded J-10s to the sea

 

[asif iqbal]

Nice Loaded J-10s to the sea

[]

Stunning shot

 

[no_name]

Stunning shot

Not sure if the J-10 itself is shopped, but the three of them are of the same aircraft.

With that in mind the second pic could also be of one J-10 only.

 

[asif iqbal]

You maybe correct there the flames on the after burner look identical