J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)

[Lion]

The top brass has seen that J-10 kicks flankers in every major exercises since J-10 has joined service despite being much cheaper to produce. Flanker series has its roles and J-10 series has its role. Nothing in production right now can replace the role of J-10 for PLAAF.

No denying the superiority of J-10 but the shortcoming of J-10 with its smaller airframe and less legged. Plus some of the result outcome is more due to the user of flanker rather than the merit of J-10 airframe. For example, J-11B pilot are criticized for not using any ECM when its available onboard and get shot down by J-10. What happen if J-11B pilot are familiar with their EW stuff?

Why don't you answer the questions I put down? Shenyang has always cooperated with Chengdu on the major projects. That's how it works inside AVIC1 and PLAAF. The only argument you are making is that J-10 is not so important, so Shenyang can somehow defy the will of AVIC1 and PLAAF. Which is completely not true, since J-10 currently has an irreplaceable role with

Same as you who failed to address some of my issue. You talk about reliabilities of WS-10 which is refuted by the fact, this engine is chosen as forerunner engine for few high profile prototype initial flight test. I think we can put to rest of its reliability. Why can't it put into a single jet J-10 while SAC enjoy all the goodies of domestic engine for their J-series fighter? Given the PLAAF habit of preference all domestic component(in case of any embargo). J-10 continue using of AL-31FN might affect its number in service. Which is precisely SAC intention..

Shenyang can't openly defy PLAAF order and show its true intention of limiting rival's grow , right? It need so play along and while at the same time , play some trick to slow opponent.

Before AVIC combine all of them, SAC and Chengdu operate quite differently. SAC never see Chengdu as a threat even with F-7 until J-10 came along and even loses out 5th gen fighter competition. This is a massive blow to SAC and a wake up call.

Again, why does the major turbofan engine project for Y-20 get produced by Xi'an AE when they are designed by SAERI? According to your theory, shouldn't Shenyang Liming be able to bag those since they are both in Shenyang?
How does Shenyang Liming get the whole say in where FWS-10 goes when Xi'an AE does 1/3 of the production for it and they are both under AVIC1?
Why do you continue to assume that they are the same engine when FWS-10 and FWS-10A clearly have different requirements when it comes to thrust, reliability and gearbox location?

Seriously, you can't compare Xi' an with Chengdu, right? They are both quite a different company designing different products for PLAAF. But Chengdu is a different ball. Look at their project, its indirectly clashing against the powerful SAC.
SAC see Chengdu as the only threat.

As for WS-10 and WS-10A, I can say the only different thing I see between them is the different location of gearbox therefore suiting J-11B and other for J-10. Same as how AL-31F and AL-31FN serves both its destination for J-11A and J-10A. Unless you have some concrete proof of more differences. What you say , is just your personal assumption.

 

[tphuang]

No denying the superiority of J-10 but the shortcoming of J-10 with its smaller airframe and less legged. Plus some of the result outcome is more due to the user of flanker rather than the merit of J-10 airframe. For example, J-11B pilot are criticized for not using any ECM when its available onboard and get shot down by J-10. What happen if J-11B pilot are familiar with their EW stuff?

They got criticized because they lost badly to J-11A pilots. How long has J-11B being out for? By this point, J-10 was already dominating in air exercises. There has been no proof at this point that J-11B can match even J-10A's air combat capability let alone that of J-10B.

Same as you who failed to address some of my issue. You talk about reliabilities of WS-10 which is refuted by the fact, this engine is chosen as forerunner engine for few high profile prototype initial flight test. I think we can put to rest of its reliability. Why can't it put into a single jet J-10 while SAC enjoy all the goodies of domestic engine for their J-series fighter? Given the PLAAF habit of preference all domestic component(in case of any embargo). J-10 continue using of AL-31FN might affect its number in service. Which is precisely SAC intention..

This has been talked about numerously. There was no point in putting a new engine into J-10A when it was close to finishing production. As for reliability, has it ever occurred to you that reliability and thrust requirement for j-10A is greater than that of flankers? That's why they had to develop FWS-10A for J-10 with these greater reliability and thrust. Especially when you have a new jet like J-10B which is expected to carry more payload, you need an engine with greater thrust and reliability. As for PLAAF preferring all domestic components, that's true, but if FWS-10A hasn't reached desired reliability and thrust, then it's not going to accept that.

Oh and you conveniently forget that J-11B, J-15 and J-16 have to use FWS-10 engines, because the Russians have completely cut off AL-31F engines for the new Chinese built flankers. How many spare AL-31F do they have left at SAC for new Chinese flankers? Only some people at AVIC1 and PLAAF would know. If you ever read through discussions on Chinese forums, you would know this. They had no choice but to wait on FWS-10 engines and hope that they become reliable. J-11B aircraft were sitting outside SAC with no engine until second half of 2010. We have pictures to show this. Even now, they are still addressing problems found on J-11B. But that's okay, FWS-10 will only become more reliable with more flight time. And your example of J-16 only came out this year. What about before that? The first J-15s were definitely flying with AL-31F. So basically, FWS-10 have only become reliable enough in middle of 2012.

At the same time this was happening, J-10s were pumping off the line because they could fly with AL-31FN and did not have to wait for FWS-10A. Would you rather be CAC at that time or SAC? Why would J-10A wait for FWS-10 when it wasn't cleared to even be used by a twin-engine aircraft? So now for J-10B, the question is whether 1035 have shown FWS-10A to be reliable or not.

Shenyang can't openly defy PLAAF order and show its true intention of limiting rival's grow , right? It need so play along and while at the same time , play some trick to slow opponent.

This entire idea that Shenyang doesn't want to sell more engine does not even make economic sense. Those j-10s are going to get produced regardless of what SAC's desires are. Shenyang Liming has plenty of capacity to build engines for both J-10 and flankers. If Liming doesn't produce FWS-10As for J-10Bs, those orders will just go to the Russians. You think Shenyang Liming will intentionally reduce its business? What for? Give me the business plan where this makes sense.

Before AVIC combine all of them, SAC and Chengdu operate quite differently. SAC never see Chengdu as a threat even with F-7 until J-10 came along and even loses out 5th gen fighter competition. This is a massive blow to SAC and a wake up call.

Yet, SAC and CAC still cooperate on 5th gen project. What does that tell you?

Seriously, you can't compare Xi' an with Chengdu, right? They are both quite a different company designing different products for PLAAF. But Chengdu is a different ball. Look at their project, its indirectly clashing against the powerful SAC.
SAC see Chengdu as the only threat.

Same idea. Xi'an AE is Shenyang Liming's biggest competitor. Yet, engines designed by SAERI gets produced by Xi'an AE. Your entire theory is that Shenyang's companies all help each other. I've just given you an example where PLAAF orders told them to work for Xi'an AE and SAERI had to do it.

As for WS-10 and WS-10A, I can say the only different thing I see between them is the different location of gearbox therefore suiting J-11B and other for J-10. Same as how AL-31F and AL-31FN serves both its destination for J-11A and J-10A. Unless you have some concrete proof of more differences. What you say , is just your personal assumption.

You have no proof of anything except your imagination. Maya stated in the WS-10 thread that FWS-10A has higher thrust than FWS-10. And if you follow Chinese bbs online, you'd see how well respected he is.

But why don't you answer the fundamental question. Shenyang Liming has no problem producing engines for both J-10 and flankers. It's giving away sales to Russians if it refuses to supply J-10. Why would it refuse sales? J-10s are getting produced whether they like it or not.

 

[Lion]

They got criticized because they lost badly to J-11A pilots. How long has J-11B being out for? By this point, J-10 was already dominating in air exercises. There has been no proof at this point that J-11B can match even J-10A's air combat capability let alone that of J-10B.

This has been talked about numerously. There was no point in putting a new engine into J-10A when it was close to finishing production. As for reliability, has it ever occurred to you that reliability and thrust requirement for j-10A is greater than that of flankers? That's why they had to develop FWS-10A for J-10 with these greater reliability and thrust. Especially when you have a new jet like J-10B which is expected to carry more payload, you need an engine with greater thrust and reliability. As for PLAAF preferring all domestic components, that's true, but if FWS-10A hasn't reached desired reliability and thrust, then it's not going to accept that.

Oh and you conveniently forget that J-11B, J-15 and J-16 have to use FWS-10 engines, because the Russians have completely cut off AL-31F engines for the new Chinese built flankers. How many spare AL-31F do they have left at SAC for new Chinese flankers? Only some people at AVIC1 and PLAAF would know. If you ever read through discussions on Chinese forums, you would know this. They had no choice but to wait on FWS-10 engines and hope that they become reliable. J-11B aircraft were sitting outside SAC with no engine until second half of 2010. We have pictures to show this. Even now, they are still addressing problems found on J-11B. But that's okay, FWS-10 will only become more reliable with more flight time. And your example of J-16 only came out this year. What about before that? The first J-15s were definitely flying with AL-31F. So basically, FWS-10 have only become reliable enough in middle of 2012.

At the same time this was happening, J-10s were pumping off the line because they could fly with AL-31FN and did not have to wait for FWS-10A. Would you rather be CAC at that time or SAC? Why would J-10A wait for FWS-10 when it wasn't cleared to even be used by a twin-engine aircraft? So now for J-10B, the question is whether 1035 have shown FWS-10A to be reliable or not.

Fair enough but if J-10B production start coming off the line with AL-31FN then all yr theory will goes wrong.

This entire idea that Shenyang doesn't want to sell more engine does not even make economic sense. Those j-10s are going to get produced regardless of what SAC's desires are. Shenyang Liming has plenty of capacity to build engines for both J-10 and flankers. If Liming doesn't produce FWS-10As for J-10Bs, those orders will just go to the Russians. You think Shenyang Liming will intentionally reduce its business? What for? Give me the business plan where this makes sense.

making the entire plane is shenyang core business. Selling engine is secondary and the very fact SAC can't export flanker series jet makes domestic order even more important.

Yet, SAC and CAC still cooperate on 5th gen project. What does that tell you?

Cooperate doesn't mean they are friendly. Look at how SAC build a stealth pt J-31 so fast. I beg this cooperation is helping SAC to absorb chengdu extensive tech to improve their own.

Same idea. Xi'an AE is Shenyang Liming's biggest competitor. Yet, engines designed by SAERI gets produced by Xi'an AE. Your entire theory is that Shenyang's companies all help each other. I've just given you an example where PLAAF orders told them to work for Xi'an AE and SAERI had to do it.

As I say, engine making is not shenyang core business. Selling a whole plane is the real big money.

You have no proof of anything except your imagination. Maya stated in the WS-10 thread that FWS-10A has higher thrust than FWS-10. And if you follow Chinese bbs online, you'd see how well respected he is.

But why don't you answer the fundamental question. Shenyang Liming has no problem producing engines for both J-10 and flankers. It's giving away sales to Russians if it refuses to supply J-10. Why would it refuse sales? J-10s are getting produced whether they like it or not.

Aren't you equally guilty when I asks for facts and you can't produced anything? You say WS-10A has higher thrust but if J-10B production batch uses Al-31 FN. Then something is real wrong since it has a lower thrust and SAC plane can continue all the goodies of domestic engine while chengdu have dirt.

 

[A.Man]

I always believed that a J-10 production lot is consisted of 40 planes

 

[Totoro]

I believe it is more likely THIS lot has 40 planes, whereas early lots had less. Perhaps with each new lot the production got more efficient and more could be built. Had every single seater lot had 40 planes, combined with the known two-seater lots, that would amount to over 300 planes by now.

 

[delft]

@Lion
The engine is nearly always the most expensive part of the aircraft.
By providing engines for J-10's Shenyang Liming would enable that aircraft to be exported thus increasing its production volume. This means not only more income but also even more experience producing engines, pure advantage for Shenyang Liming. In your model the real quarrel would be between the two parts of the Shenyang company. How probable is that?

 

[Lion]

@Lion
The engine is nearly always the most expensive part of the aircraft.
By providing engines for J-10's Shenyang Liming would enable that aircraft to be exported thus increasing its production volume. This means not only more income but also even more experience producing engines, pure advantage for Shenyang Liming. In your model the real quarrel would be between the two parts of the Shenyang company. How probable is that?

Engine, the most expensive part? If there are 100 parts for an aircraft and engine is only one part, then engine stands only a small portion of the whole deal.

If shenyang can substitute a J-10 with J-11B instead of just supply an engine,how profitable will that be? Yr explanation is flaw.

 

[tphuang]

Fair enough but if J-10B production start coming off the line with AL-31FN then all yr theory will goes wrong.

that would just mean CAC prefers AL-31FN over domestic options.

making the entire plane is shenyang core business. Selling engine is secondary and the very fact SAC can't export flanker series jet makes domestic order even more important.

Cooperate doesn't mean they are friendly. Look at how SAC build a stealth pt J-31 so fast. I beg this cooperation is helping SAC to absorb chengdu extensive tech to improve their own.

As I say, engine making is not shenyang core business. Selling a whole plane is the real big money.

Both CAC SAC has been researching stealth technology since the early 90s. And maybe even earlier. They cooperate to help each other. They are all under AVIC1 and have been sharing technology for a long time.

Engine may not be worth as much as the rest of the aircraft cost, but it's a lot of money still. Each AL-31FN cost China $4 million. Each J-10 cost around $25 million. Each J-11B probably cost in the $35 to $40 million range. For J-11B, if you take out the cost of 2 engines and the radar and avionics which are not built in SAC, how much profit do you think SAC really make off each J-11B? How much profit do you think Shenyang Liming makes off each Taihang engine and all of the servicing and replacements afterward? remember now, one set of engines is not going to last the life time of the aircraft.

That's a lot of money SAC will be giving up. And for what reason? Just so that J-10 still get produced but with Russian aircraft? That kind of CEO should get fired on the spot.

Aren't you equally guilty when I asks for facts and you can't produced anything? You say WS-10A has higher thrust but if J-10B production batch uses Al-31 FN. Then something is real wrong since it has a lower thrust and SAC plane can continue all the goodies of domestic engine while chengdu have dirt.

Have you read anything I wrote? You are out of bullet and you know it. If FWS-10A is not considered mature enough with its higher reliability, service life and thrust requirements by PLAAF, it will not go on J-10B. It's as simple as that. We also don't know which version of FN China will be getting from the Russians. If one of the 99M series is available and has better performance than FWS-10A, PLAAF/CAC will really have to figure out what they want to. No straight answers.

 

[pflanker]

that would just mean CAC prefers AL-31FN over domestic options.
....
If one of the 99M series is available and has better performance than FWS-10A, PLAAF/CAC will really have to figure out what they want to. No straight answers.

We have to look at the project schedule to put things into perspective - I think 4Q 2013 is j-10b deliverable date? Air frame development appears to be ahead of schedule, but the same cannot be said about engine. Not too much should be concluded from the first few birds.
Other engine projects e.g. WS-15 design completion date is 1Q 2013(?). It seems like more options are available the longer CAC waits.

Russians learn that exporting stripped down technology will not cut it any more. It is working on improved thrust RD-33 and RD-93 (with China as potential market?). Strategies like western technology embargo and blocking have little effect on slowing China's progress. This lesson should be learned by everyone seeking prosperity.

 

[Deino]

um, isnt that a different plane?
....

Yes, You are correct, but now with stores ... ?!