J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)

[Totoro]

6-37? sixth batch of at least 37 planes? Maybe 38, for an even numer? Though, it is also very probable batches increased over time. Otherwise, with two j10s batches we would be looking at 270 j10 in service, which is clearly not the case. Maybe first batch was just 12 or so planes. then 18, then at some point another line opened and it grew to current production rates.

I am guessing we will see a smaller first j10b batch, perhaps just 12 planes, but then, if everything goes well, that might escalate to full 38 planes per batch within a year or two.

 

[franco-russe]

Is This Close To The End Of J-10A's Production?

Thanks for those pictures.

Very, very close to the end. The highest number seen in any Lot was J10A-0438 (30650), so I think lots are 38, so we are only missing 6-38. I think 6 x 38 = 228 is right (to which should be added some 62-64 J-10S and 6 preseries planes).

 

[tphuang]

6-37? sixth batch of at least 37 planes? Maybe 38, for an even numer? Though, it is also very probable batches increased over time. Otherwise, with two j10s batches we would be looking at 270 j10 in service, which is clearly not the case. Maybe first batch was just 12 or so planes. then 18, then at some point another line opened and it grew to current production rates.

I am guessing we will see a smaller first j10b batch, perhaps just 12 planes, but then, if everything goes well, that might escalate to full 38 planes per batch within a year or two.

5th batch also had at least 37 planes. my current J-10 calculations.

You have 24 J-10s with PLANAF
7 PLAAF regiments with at least 28 J-10s in each.
24 + 7 x 28 = 220

On top of that, you have at 12 with flight demonstration team and 16 to 20 with FTTC. That brings the total to around 250. I also think that the 24th division regiment has up to 36 J-10s based on the range of numbers we've seen. If you factor in a couple of replacements due to crashes, I can easily see 260 J-10s produced up to this point in the batches.

I do agree with the assessment that not every batch has the same number of planes. The earlier 3 batches probably had less planes and same with the first J-10S batch.

 

[asif iqbal]

so it looks like a Regiment of J10A stands up every year which means if they continue to make J10B then by 2020 we could see 6-7 Regiments of J10B which means further 200+ J10Bs

by then the J10A/B numbers will probably outnumber the Flanker numbers, obviously depends how many J11B and J16 they produce

 

[jackliu]

On average, how long does them to produce a batch from beginning to finish?

And I assume, they all use WS-10 now? Not AL-31

 

[Geographer]

Why does the PLAAF use Arabic numerals on their planes? Why not Chinese characters?

 

[franco-russe]

About 18 months to produce one batch of 38 (plus twin-seaters)

so it looks like a Regiment of J10A stands up every year which means if they continue to make J10B then by 2020 we could see 6-7 Regiments of J10B which means further 200+ J10Bs

by then the J10A/B numbers will probably outnumber the Flanker numbers, obviously depends how many J11B and J16 they produce

I doubt they will build that many J-10B. It presently looks as if they are building heaps of J-10S for J-10B regiments. With 2-37 they are close to having 16 for four J-10B regiments. They may build more, of course.

I guess they are forming a ninth J-10A regiment this year, possibly naval.

 

[no_name]

Why does the PLAAF use Arabic numerals on their planes? Why not Chinese characters?

Imagine if Italians use roman numerals.

 

[tphuang]

About 18 months to produce one batch of 38 (plus twin-seaters)



I doubt they will build that many J-10B. It presently looks as if they are building heaps of J-10S for J-10B regiments. With 2-37 they are close to having 16 for four J-10B regiments. They may build more, of course.

I guess they are forming a ninth J-10A regiment this year, possibly naval.

what's your count on the number of AL-31FN? I keep on thinking there was one batch between the one for 100 in 2005 and the one for 122 in 2011, but I can't find it.

 

[bladerunner]

Why does the PLAAF use Arabic numerals on their planes? Why not Chinese characters?

Because English is the default language of the air transport industry.