antiterror13
Brigadier
There is no urgency for PLAAF to have J-10B now, perhaps keep improving avionic and air frame while waiting for more powerful engine WS-10B become mature
J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)
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There is no urgency for PLAAF to have J-10B now, perhaps keep improving avionic and air frame while waiting for more powerful engine WS-10B become mature
It maybe waiting for a more powerfu engine or Shenyang Liming is screwing Chengdu aviation up.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
They are still conducting regular test flights at CAC, so the project is still very much alive and kicking, but I think both CAC and the PLAAF have their priorities on other projects now (not to mention the wall climbers), so the budget and available resources for the J10B is nowhere like what the J10A enjoyed.
Even saying that, the J10B has only been flying for a relatively short time, and there is nothing particularly protracted about its development thus far. The contrast with the J10A only appears big because we never got to learn about the J10A's first flight and other milestones in real time. What took many years for the J10A was shrouded in secrecy and only revealed years later, by which point new developments were also declassified, thus giving the superficial illusion of a rapid development cycle.
If the J10B is still not in production in a couple of years, it would be time to wonder about just what is going on, but I see no cause for concern at present.
Even saying that, the J10B has only been flying for a relatively short time, and there is nothing particularly protracted about its development thus far. The contrast with the J10A only appears big because we never got to learn about the J10A's first flight and other milestones in real time. What took many years for the J10A was shrouded in secrecy and only revealed years later, by which point new developments were also declassified, thus giving the superficial illusion of a rapid development cycle.
If the J10B is still not in production in a couple of years, it would be time to wonder about just what is going on, but I see no cause for concern at present.
It seems J-11B, J-11BS,J-15 and J-16 have a much faster pace of production and development than J-10B... The only solution Chengdu do is to pump out J-10A and J-10S. Isn't Chengdu suppose to be more capable than Shenyang?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Seems? We simply don't have enough accurate info to judge.
When did all of these programmes start? What level of complexity was involved in terms of how much of an improvement these planes are over their predecessors? What stage of testing and development are they at at this precise point in time?
The J11B is not anywhere close to as radical redesign of the J11A as the J10B is of the J10A, the J11BS is just a twin seat J11B as far as anyone can say, the J16 is a twin seat J11B with enhanced ground attack capabilities and probably many of the airframe enhancements found on the MKK. The J15 is very much based on the Su33 prototype SAC got from Ukraine.
Since the J11B is using pretty much the same airframe, and most of the changes with the exception of the engines are internal, it should have required far less test flying than a major airframe mod like the J10B. The J15 and J16 programmes also benefitted greatly from the Su33 and MKK whereas the J10B had no such help. Even if it took longer, that is perfectly within reason.
But as I said, do we even know when all the programmes started and ended to make the case that J11B, J11BS, J15 and J16 were developed faster than the J10B? All we have are observations, rumors and guesses, based on landmarks of first flight, test flights, more prototypes and finally serial and then full scale production, and with the exception of the J11B and maybe the J11BS, none of the others are in full scale production yet.
Of the J15 and J16, are we only seeing prototypes, pre-production birds, small scale production examples or full scale production versions? We don't know. Will they even go through all those different phases? Will the J10B?
Well, SAC is more capable than a lot of people gave it credit for. It's done a lot of good stuff recently. Still, it took them years to get J-11B and J-11BS locally produced and it's getting crushed in PLA exercises. J-16 finally has one prototype and it's copied off MKK and has a lot of work to be done still. J-15 has been under testing for almost the same amount time as J-10B, but still has a couple of years to go before mass production. I don't see why that makes it more capable than Chengdu's progress with J-10B, which is a larger change than J-11A to J-11B. Of course, we want it to move faster, but it's not like J-10B has slid 2 or 3 years off track.
I agree, both companies are also engaged in a number of advanced projects so it's hard to concentrate on a certain type of aircraft to get it going. CAC is working on J10A/S/B, FC1, J20, Xianglong UAV. SAC is working on J11B/BS, J15, J16, and J31. No other companies in the world is that busy at the moment so I think J10B's pace is perfectly reasonable, I'd rather they do a proper job than rush it through by cutting corners.
BTW I think the J15 low rate production has been going on for a year now so IMO there are at least a dozen J15s flying. Also there are rumors that J10B serial production will start within the year if not already, we'll see in a couple of months.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
It is a good point but Flanker is a Russian platform which is much matured more user friendly and as such can be built in my variants owing to its design and build
J10 is still a tough aircraft for China it took ages to develop and so much investment whereas Flanker variants come through the ranks like no tomorrow but yes also factory's schedule is also important as mentioned
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