J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)

[Baibar of Jalat]

That's not a valid point. Saying that China is willing to help Pakistan does not imply it will provide everything Pakistan asks for.

Any Pakistani elite who thinks they should play US and China against each other and not become dependent on China is not that bright. China today is not the China of 2000. I won't get too far into it, but Pakistan should depend on China.

Since this statement may ignite some fire. I will just say this. This is a J-10 thread, please create a thread elsewhere if you want to argue on the validity of my statement that Pakistan should rely on China. I can give better reasoning there.

OK, I forgot to mention there are limits to cooperation, naturally, you cant get everything. My intention is to say Latenlazy, China has passed material and help that altered the strategic balance, e.g missiles, why are things different now, and you have to consider US actively worked with Pak during cold war.

I am not saying Pak elites are playing both against each other rather working with both to furthur own interests. China despite being viewed with alarm by US still trades and talks with US. In conclusion Pak should not go down the Iran route. Edit: Remember various parties in Pak politics and have their own FP outlook.

Leave it at that, because making another thread on issues such as being "dependent" is gonna be purely speculation and no right or wrong response. Recipe for fustration.

 

[mean_bird]

A couple of things, there are 3 firms: 14th institute, 38th institute and 607 institute capable of making AESA radar on fighter jets. As you can see on J-10B, it's going to use AESA radar and China obviously would have a competition between these firms to see which one wins out. I'm putting my money on 14th institute, but we will see.

Also, I don't want it to sound like AESA radar is that important, because there are so much others to avionics. On J-10B, you see the IRST, the MAWs, holographic HUD, the built in ECM pod, the ECM package n top of the vertical stabilizer. And I've also read about the general upgrade in the situation awareness, avionics architecture of J-10B, but that we will not know until later.

Basically, my point is don't obsess over just the radar. Having said that, I think China will offer some form of AESA radar for export to Pakistan. Again, what it will allow export to different countries is different depending on the level of security clearance of those countries. You simply can't offer the exactly same radar to another air force, because that kind of stuff is pretty confidential to PLAAF. Again, the subsystems that China allow for export is determined on an individual basis.

If you look at the radar on F-8IIM, it's clearly not that advanced and inferior to what you would find on J-8F. If a country says that I'm interested in the plane, but I need some improvements on the radar. Would they do it? Probably, but the kind of radar offered would be dependent on the customer. That's what you saw in the Peru deal. They came back with improved subsystems that were permitted to be exported.

I am not arguing that China has to sell the same equipment that its forces uses. Every nation would like to protect what its forces use, CHina is no exception and I do not have a problem with it either.

But I have some doubts in their ability to turn out a competitive AESA radar in about 2 yrs time or less. All the institutions you have quoted do NOT CURRENTLY make an AESA radar for fighter jets. What are the chances they will be able to manufacture it, master the technology and get it right first time?

As I said, everything needs time, expertise, experience and testing.You need to turn out a radar, test it extensively, learn from the experience and better your product. I just cannot see how you can skip some of these essential steps and have a competitive product out of nowhere. In due time that is quite a possibility and most probably likely to happen but given the timeframe, I do not think a chinese radar, even if available, would be the first choice. Ofcouse other factors might however dictate what actually will happen.

Regarding the other things you mentioned, they are already on the J-11 so they have experience in them and probably keep on improving them by learning from experience. So I have no reason to doubt the ability in those area. Similar is the case of engines and I am sure there are some good institutes working on that too for quite some time but what are the results? I believe the WS-10 was tested aboard the J11B at first before it was withdraw after testing, wasnt it? In principle even then the engine was ready but after testing it was withdrawn.

 

[Munir]

China delivered and will continue to deliver a lot more then the eyes sees. Surely not latest it has but no one knows what that might be. Sofar it defended Pakistan thanks to J6/J7. It builds its airforce and industry with JF17 and probably J10. Though J10 has more potential (FC20) you gotta know that it inherrited parts/ideas of JF17. And if PAF gets J10B then it did profit of not getting J10A in the beginning.

It sounds dubious to me. One moment people say that China cannot produce as good as western producers (which can be bought by Pakistan like Erieye/Block52/Amraam/Brazilian Anti Radiation etc) but then we hear that it will not sell latest to Pakistan. Surely there are items but it is overhyped.

Pakistan got F22 to build its industry. It was all loans. It will move towards the best (54) and even to western options. Same with JF17 to build industry. Move towards FC20 and import more from western producers. Pakistan bought western UAV (Italian) and moves towards Burraq (comparable with Reaper/Predator).

You might see a weak Pakistan but it did achieve a lot more then its 5 times bigger neighbour in getting weapons and producing them. Sure it can not go for big items and huge quantities but it did never fail in setting up the best defence. Even when the neighbour showed its nuke card the answer was ready within days. How many nation can do that? It builds Anza's (surely help of China) and many more items like Bakthar Shikan. But did someone thought about Babur/Ra'ad?

 

[latenlazy]

Late&Lazy,

It is well known that Pakistani knowledge of French and US weapons contributed to Chinese designs. You can look at J6, J7P and PG and even JF17. Read some interviews of high ranked people. Pretty much thanks to the alterations on some planes (made by PAF) these products were more exported. Same is true on FC20 but we do not have to go into details. I do not have to share everything. Not that planes were swapped or rules were passed. Pakistani engineers and programmanagers did more then just sign papers. About having plane x and not allowing to spread info is usual contract and in case of Block 52 it is no different with J10B. And it is not Pakistan specific. India has large quatities of Russian weapons and is reveiving now lot of US deals... Malaysia is the same... And pretty sure there are more.

On the contrary, I understand perfectly which angle you're coming from. But just like your claim (substantiated or not) that China can deal a lot more than what is officially announced to Pakistan, there's also the claim that countries like the US can use Pakistan to compromise sensitive information on China's hardware whether officially allowed or not. We don't know if either claim is true, but both can be valid.

Nothing you've said has really refuted the point that China wouldn't be giving Pakistan it's best hardware. All it's done is point to the fact that China willingly cooperates with Pakistan, which was never disputed (at leasts by me). In fact, every example you've pointed out has been an instance where China already had something better domestically. If China can develop an inferior AESA, then I can see the FC-20 having an AESA, but it won't be the same one they'll be planning to put on the J-10B. This is simple security policy logic.

In all those other instances of some countries making arms deals with a number of other countries, none of the technology offered was the absolute best. A lot of us aren't saying that China won't deal to Pakistan at all because of its arms deals with other countries, but that it won't deal its absolute best to Pakistan because of that. Different points.

You guys run into conclusions without understanding a dimension and throw opinions on the web like it is a fact. Please. It is waste of time and energy.

If you think we're running into conclusions without understanding certain points you shouldn't hesitate to elaborate, rather than leave lines that don't have a point. The whole point of having a discussion is to share arguments based on what we do know so we're all the better for it. In any case, we've only thrown about as many opinions as you have.

Dont get in a argument you gonna lose, because I have read and continue to read China helping Pakistan in areas of missiles, nuclear, engineering etc

China usual allies such as Sudan, Iran, Venuzela etc are not reliable in a sense if government changes their stance could revert to being pro American esp inregards to Iran. Pakistan has had civilian and military governments both value relationship with China and ofcourse US. Pakistani elites are not as stupid as people make out, they know not to become to dependent on one nation. Chinese govt relise that Pakistan is dependent because whatever govts in power they will still need China.

And I never said China won't continue dealing arms to Pakistan. I said sensitive information, like say their first AESA radar, might not be. It's a point you seem to understand just as well in your reply to TPHuang. This is particularly valid I think because as you point out there are differing opinions to which country Pakistan should get close to most in both civilian and military life, and its apparent lack of political cohesion makes it particularly prone to information leaks.

In any case, I never made any point about Pakistan's dependence or independence to other countries, just that its arms deals with multiple countries makes it an unlikely to place to trade top of the line technology to even if you could get over the barrier of "no country selling its best."

Unless you guys want to start another topic, I think this will be my last post on the matter. I'd be happy to continue this discussion though.

 

[pla101prc]

But I have some doubts in their ability to turn out a competitive AESA radar in about 2 yrs time or less. All the institutions you have quoted do NOT CURRENTLY make an AESA radar for fighter jets. What are the chances they will be able to manufacture it, master the technology and get it right first time?

lmao i bet a week ago today you'd be saying that China cant intercept an incoming missile because you havent seen it. some of the older members like tphuang and crobato have provided some quite convincing arguments about China's AESA project i suggest you read up on those before jumping to conclusions.

 

[King_Comm]

But I have some doubts in their ability to turn out a competitive AESA radar in about 2 yrs time or less. All the institutions you have quoted do NOT CURRENTLY make an AESA radar for fighter jets. What are the chances they will be able to manufacture it, master the technology and get it right first time?

That is false, judging by official sources, 607 institue has already developed an electronically scanned fighter radar in 2008, judging by China's inability to produce the traveling wave tubes that are required for PESA radar, and the fact that article mentioned the radar was for the new generation fighter, the radar made by 607 institute is most likely to be an AESA radar.

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[mean_bird]

lmao i bet a week ago today you'd be saying that China cant intercept an incoming missile because you havent seen it. some of the older members like tphuang and crobato have provided some quite convincing arguments about China's AESA project i suggest you read up on those before jumping to conclusions.

What's so funny in it?

Firstly, China did demonstrate previously the ability to shoot down a satellite (OK not the same thing) and secondly its an experimentation. Or do you mean the system has matured to freeze R&D and start production and get it inducted? I don't think so -- rather its the first of probably a series of experiments they will carry out to validate their hypothesis, improve if necessary and give the final product. Just like the WS 10 engine I mentioned before. Sure they demonstrated they have an engine but is it matured?

I am saying the same with the radar. As I said in my previous posts, I am talking about matured products and in the given timeframe.

That is false, judging by official sources, 607 institue has already developed an electronically scanned fighter radar in 2008, judging by China's inability to produce the traveling wave tubes that are required for PESA radar, and the fact that article mentioned the radar was for the new generation fighter, the radar made by 607 institute is most likely to be an AESA radar.

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You will have to tell us the background since I do not understand Mandarin or whatever that language is. A simple babelfish translation makes it appear that it is some university/college board for alumnis. How "official" is that? Does the company that makes it have it listed as a product? is it installed on any of Chinese current fighter squadrons?

 

[King_Comm]

You will have to tell us the background since I do not understand Mandarin or whatever that language is. A simple babelfish translation makes it appear that it is some university/college board for alumnis. How "official" is that? Does the company that makes it have it listed as a product? is it installed on any of Chinese current fighter squadrons?

The webpages belongs to NUAA, of which the director of the 607 institute is an alumni, the article originally appeared on the magazine "Military industry culture" 《军工文化》, which is quite official.

The article claims that the radar was tested on an airborne test platform in 2008, with the deputy PLAAF commander proclaiming after the test that the radar problem for the new generation fighter has been solved.

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, as saying that it's crude and poorly constructed is a huge understatement, and has not been updated since 2004.

We do not know how many fighters are equipped with this radar at the moment, but to say that China won't have an AESA for export in two years time is a bit of a stretch.

 

[crobato]

The cant of the radome firewall of the J-10B points to an electronically scanning radar. As for whether its PESA or AESA, PESA does not confer any simplicity or "easier to master" technology compared to AESA, in fact, PESA presents its own problems. Furthermore, there are many industrial conditions prevailing in China and uniquely in China that favors AESA development over PESA, such as access to rare earth metals, and being a major global supplier of Gallium Arsenide. By logic, there's a good chance the radar on the J-10B is an AESA.

 

[challenge]

the first prototype AESA for rafale was made in 2002,but it was until 2012 that RBE-2 will officially equip the french air force.PLAAF may have to wait longer,probably around 2015~2017 for there own AESA.