Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
There is a great deal of political posturing on all sides, but I can't see much coming out of this. Russia is already engaged in Ukraine, China won't intervene, India is certainly not going to join the fight. That leaves Iran as the only great power who can potentially back Palestine.
It's not like Iran needs divisions worth of volunteer Russian/Chinese troops in order to fight. They have plenty of volunteers from the Muslim world.

But Russia will surely be helping guide Iranian fires, and Russia can easily leverage China into covering up what shortcomings Russians themselves don't have. And then there's the matter of unlimited drones/small arms/ammo for Iran.

At the most minimum contribution level, China would still do it's thing of selling dual use small equipment to anyone. They did this for AFU and RUA in Ukraine. They'll do it for both IDF and Iran. And imho like what we've seen in Ukraine, the boost is stronger for the side that has less airpower and conventional force.
Iran cannot win against the combined forces of Israel and the US. If they mobilize, it will give the US the perfect excuse to do what they have been wanting to do for decades - start a war with Iran with another country's army. Sorry to say it, but as dangerous and angry as the Middle East is going to get, in the end, they lack the strength to do much about their current situation.
Rationally, both Iran and Israel lack the clear cut strength to take on eachother, however, do they really have the rational behavior to understand that?

If they did, then a Hamas-Israel ceasefire would be the best plan. Hamas proved that they are Palestine's best fighting force and would surge in recruits. Israel gained blood vengeance for the dead and can try to purge all the incompetent in the government/military.

Hell, if the Likud is purged in the aftermath, it may even be a development that contributes positively to Israel's long term diplomatic prospects and lessens the chance of Israel being collateral damage in the cold war.

Everyone can get something positive out of the current situation if they think rationally.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
israel ground offensive delayed yet again. i still believe it will happen though. but as someone said earlier in this thread a protracted war will put a strain on israel financially. occupying gaza may be quite a complex operation, but if hezbollah does indeed join the battle (after israel commits to the ground invasion) then it will get exponentially worse. i imagine assad may also want to score some political points by applying additional pressure on israel militarily around golan heights.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
One of the key lessons of the Ukrainian war is that mathematical engagement models are faulty - not statistically, but in their final conclusions.
There are frequent leakers even in case of simple engagements due to a myriad of factors that can summed up as real life. Even simple targets often get through. This is not too important in a land war (there are just no single war targets which suddenly overturn the whole deck, and country represents tens and tens of thousands of such obscure targets, with their number growing exponentially during war), but it's hugely important in naval war, which is determined by a limited number of surface platforms.

Soviet calculations were exactly that - mathematical calculations against mathematical calculations(ideals), with a given redundancy and aimed at a guaranteed and definitive result in a "plain" scenario(pure, "ideal" all-out conventional or limited/unlimited nuclear war).

That's a very interesting choice of word,very interesting indeed.
Sounds like a typical deterrent blahblah tbh.
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
May it well not be, but seems to be things are going in one direction
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They are already preparing for post-test era

Should things really kick off, I'm expecting them to make an attempt to take down a carrier; not sure how they'll manage it. IF Iran have the capability, they won't reveal it until the very last moment.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
We got a volunteer?

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Whoever, within the United States, enlists or enters himself, or hires or retains another to enlist or enter himself, or to go beyond the jurisdiction of the United States with intent to be enlisted or entered in the service of any foreign prince, state, colony, district, or people as a soldier or as a marine or seaman on board any vessel of war, letter of marque, or privateer, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.
 
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