Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
Best case scenario now is Iran decides it finally has no other choice but to cross the nuclear threshold as a matter of survival & the Trump-bibi axis decides on all out war to stop them. I think it's reasonably likely to happen.
Why is an all out war a "best case scenario" ? Do you mean from China's perspective because US will get bogged down in another war ?
Everyone knew that the ceasefire was just Netanyahu waiting for Trump to come to office
Gaza is a goner
Israel doesn’t seem able to fully deal with Hamas and Gaza in time, especially with Hezbollah in the mix too. (Before the U.S. collapse. That was their goal from October 7th onward, to prepare for that kind of future.)
They haven’t been able to completely destroy Hamas’s architecture, retake Gaza, or organize mass deportations to the West (since they failed to coerce/convince Egypt to take them). Anyways now they can only either kill them all or covertly send them to the West.
I predicted a while back that they were waiting for Trump to take office again. The idea was that the U.S. would ease the pressure by launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah (the most they can get), freeing Israel to put all its resources into dealing with Hamas.
Hamas has kept up a steady stream of recruits, largely fueled by the excessive bloodshed caused by Israel, and they’ve also been resupplied thanks to Iran. Their tunnel network is still mostly intact, and they’ve managed to locally produce weapons with minimal resources with Iranian technical help.
Even so, I don’t see Israel or Trump going as far as launching an all-out attack on Iran. Even if Iran is a paper tiger, as many say, and its military is weak, it could still cause major economic chaos by targeting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That would trigger massive disruptions and drive U.S. inflation even higher.
The Houthis alone have shown they can disrupt things, so Iran’s potential is on a completely different level.
And let’s be honest, taking on Iran, Russia, and China all at once isn’t realistic. They’re not that reckless. The U.S. has bigger priorities, like dealing with China next, so a major attack or land invasion of Iran is off the table.
Even if Israel and the West tried to have a more limited strike against Iran first (like targeting their nuclear facilities), Iran could easily retaliate by targeting US stationary military bases around, which are also relatively wide open.
The real hope all along seems to have been that internal dissent and traitors within Iran’s regime would topple it from the inside. That’s about as far as they’re willing to go against Iran, aside from sanctions and maximum economic pressure.
I doubt that, even if they’re extremely arrogant or shortsighted, US policymakers don’t understand this. Iran’s decision to avoid acting overly aggressive also gives Israel less leverage to convince Trump to launch a direct attack at this time.
Anyway, even if Trump doesn’t go all-in against Iran and stops at Lebanon, it’s still draining them nicely, which works just fine for China. Keep in mind that material support for Israel will likely increase, so even if aid to UKR stagnates, this will keep the growth of US imperial overextension.
They haven’t been able to completely destroy Hamas’s architecture, retake Gaza, or organize mass deportations to the West (since they failed to coerce/convince Egypt to take them). Anyways now they can only either kill them all or covertly send them to the West.
I predicted a while back that they were waiting for Trump to take office again. The idea was that the U.S. would ease the pressure by launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah (the most they can get), freeing Israel to put all its resources into dealing with Hamas.
Hamas has kept up a steady stream of recruits, largely fueled by the excessive bloodshed caused by Israel, and they’ve also been resupplied thanks to Iran. Their tunnel network is still mostly intact, and they’ve managed to locally produce weapons with minimal resources with Iranian technical help.
Even so, I don’t see Israel or Trump going as far as launching an all-out attack on Iran. Even if Iran is a paper tiger, as many say, and its military is weak, it could still cause major economic chaos by targeting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That would trigger massive disruptions and drive U.S. inflation even higher.
The Houthis alone have shown they can disrupt things, so Iran’s potential is on a completely different level.
And let’s be honest, taking on Iran, Russia, and China all at once isn’t realistic. They’re not that reckless. The U.S. has bigger priorities, like dealing with China next, so a major attack or land invasion of Iran is off the table.
Even if Israel and the West tried to have a more limited strike against Iran first (like targeting their nuclear facilities), Iran could easily retaliate by targeting US stationary military bases around, which are also relatively wide open.
The real hope all along seems to have been that internal dissent and traitors within Iran’s regime would topple it from the inside. That’s about as far as they’re willing to go against Iran, aside from sanctions and maximum economic pressure.
I doubt that, even if they’re extremely arrogant or shortsighted, US policymakers don’t understand this. Iran’s decision to avoid acting overly aggressive also gives Israel less leverage to convince Trump to launch a direct attack at this time.
Anyway, even if Trump doesn’t go all-in against Iran and stops at Lebanon, it’s still draining them nicely, which works just fine for China. Keep in mind that material support for Israel will likely increase, so even if aid to UKR stagnates, this will keep the growth of US imperial overextension.
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Yes, problem?
Why are they on the vehicle top lol
Even if Israel is now more on the back foot than ever before, I don't think the war is over quite yet.
Especially China needs to analyse what went wrong for Israel, this outcome is truly surprising. When Israel started fumbling at the start of the war, I was sure the war would go like Chechnya due to the vast difference in not just arms but also numbers. But 1.5 years later, Israel has still not captured more than a few dozen square km. The war proved that a tiny nation could best a military giant - the question is how, why and what lessons does it hold?
Missing the part where Russian reconstructed Chechnya whole, named the son of one of the former rebels as ruler and gave them jobs. Israeli racism and genocidal hatred for palestinians won't allow for that, so no, not even remotely the same.
The only way Gaza is getting reconstructed by Israel is when all the Palestinians are either driven out or dead and they need beach condos for the settlers.