Depends on how Iran manages to adapt to be honest. Actually im worried for the Ayatollahs. I believe the most likely place where a future middle eastern uprising/revolution could come from is Iran. The country has a very youthful population who doesn't share the strict islamist religious ideology of their rulers nor their ideology at all. Plus the people are well educated, intelligent and open minded generally. So its normal that they believe their country should be performing farrrrrrrr better than they are today with the Ayatollahs in power. Many believe the regime has sacrificed their generation as many bright Iranian youths have to emigrate abroad for better life/opportunities to the U.S/Europe, Australia and even Gulf Arab states/Turkey to some extent etc. This is for a country that has everything to be among the most developed/advanced and highest living standards on the planet giving their vast human and even more huge natural resources( the have the world's 3rd largest oil holder and 2nd largest gas reserves holder) .
In short , the Ayatollahs regime and their ideology has failed the country and hold the country behind. There is no resson Turkey should have a bigger/better economy than Iran with zero natural resources compared to Iran. There has already be quite a few uprising/protests against the regime in Tehra but they were suppressed brutally. As i said before they wont be able to suppress it forever. So they better change and reform before its too late.
Khamenei isn't going to last another 10 years and with every passing year he has less authority. There will surely be major reform when he's gone. Iran's economy is less developed than it should have been because of the Iraqi invasion, something you can't really blame on the Islamic Republic. More recently, sanctions have become a bigger issue. But Iran is very similar to other post revolutionary societies like China or France. At first there's an attempt to export the revolution. After the first generation is dead, competent governance follows
How is Iran in anyway better after October 7th? You give reasons as to why Iran doesn't necessarily have to lose any sleep about Hezbollah being decimated and Assad being overthrown, but frankly it just sounds like cope. Iran spent untold sums of money on the Axis of Resistance and made it a pillar to their claim to being the world's chief Shia Islamic power. Even if they "lost interest in it" and decided to have a controlled demolition process, one would think it would be in exchange for better terms with the West or something that benefits them.
But there's none of that. Instead the geopolitical reality is that now Iran, or more specifically their nuclear sites, are completely at the mercy of the Israelis and the Americans. Does reality suggest otherwise? Israel no longer has to worry about Syria's air defenses and the Russian air force. Meanwhile, Iran itself time and time again has shown you can bomb their military sites and kill their generals, scientists, politicians, and the most they'll do is bomb some patches of dirt next to an Israeli or American military base. Iran went from seriously competing with Turkey for the mantle of Islamic power and threatening Israel, to now being completely on the defensive with only the Houthis to annoy the Americans and Iraq to shield their nation from a direct land attack from the West.
I will agree with you now that Iran doesn't have to manage the Axis of Resistance anymore, they can allocate that money elsewhere. With the nation ripe for Israel and America to pluck for their pleasure, they'll seriously need it to upgrade their defenses. Because lord knows the last thing China needs is for a major BRI partner to fall to an American friendly government.
The exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran demonstrated that Syria has zero benefit in protecting Iran. It also demonstrated that Israel can only do very limited damage to the Iranian military without American help while Iranian missiles could destroy Israeli semiconductor fabs in case of war
Before the war, Iran might have been perceived as threatening in Israel because of the hyping of Hezbollah. But with Hezbollah shown to be something Israel can handle and Syria fallen, Iran has much less influence and interests to protect in the region. So there's less reason to fight
And while Israel was busy bombing children and the world distracted, Iran's insurance strategy to protect against a bombing campaign has changed. Hezbollah's rockets are not needed when you can build nukes. Iran has increased it's reported stockpile of 60% enriched uranium by 50% in the last year and are openly discussing building bombs in case of western sanctions. In the past, Israeli terrorists would kill Iranian scientists with no consequences, now Iran has gained the confidence to retaliate
Afghanistan was also a loss for America but arguably a loss they are benefitting from. It is not too different for Iran in Syria. You can call it cope if you like, but the US has won by surrendering Afghanistan
