Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
What vast air defense network?

Syria has only had the S300s which are networked and operated by the Russians. I think all of those are intact, because the Russian bases haven't been touched.

Some other stuff actually operated by the SAA like ancient crotales and AAA guns are by definition not an air defense network, as they're not capable of network engagement.

Either way Syria had essentially nothing during Assad and will need to build up a new force from nothing now, losing some rotting AAA guns changes very little. It is essentially going from 0.1 to 0. Whatever gains in army morale they got from going Islamist and ability to attract back refugees so they can draft more people is an entirely more important offset.

The real problem is how the SNA will pay for restoring the Syrian army into a force capable of unification. Israel's opportunistic attack before they can get their bearings only slightly complicates the situation.
There were a bunch of systems delivered by Iran in the last few years that have been allegedly destroyed. Plus the Russian made Buk, Tor and Pantsir.
 

quim

Junior Member
Registered Member
This would backfire heavily on Israel. If this was a rational Israeli govt they would have just create a buffer zone with Syria. Focus solely on annexation of Gaza and the West Bank. Wait until Trump gets into office to apply the maximum pressure strategy on Iran. Striking Iran is basically jumping the shark and would start a war that would lead to Israel’s demise. This goes to show it’s nothing more than Netanyahu escalating so he doesn’t go to jail and solidify his legacy as the Israeli leader that stopped Iran.

Going to strike Iran’s nuclear program is a major escalation that would lead to all out war. Plus there is no guarantee it would even work. The US military even admits the only way to truly stop Irans nuclear program is a ground invasion. The US doesn’t have the manpower or willpower to fight a ground war in Iran. They take Iran’s reluctance for full scale regional war as weakness. It’s the same thing the west is doing with Russia regarding Ukraine. They see reluctance to escalate as weakness. Also Israel is opportunistic.

Trump has assembled an even more Zionist cabinet. It’s like he is trying to out Zionist Biden at this point. So Israel can easily convince Trump that Iran is on the back foot and they can strike the nuclear facilities. And when Iran retaliates harshly against Israel the US will then join in. I highly doubt the Trump administration will sit by and let Israel get battered. Plus I can see people telling Trump this is his chance to be the president that crushed the mullahs.

It will likely be an Israeli operation because the US doesn’t have enough assets to do a joint operation with Israel. For a sustained air campaign against Iran the US needs 5-6 aircraft carriers in the region. And to accumulate that amount of force would take months. And do we thing Iran will sit idly by like Saddam and let the US to build up its forces to bomb it? Not at all. Iran would launch a pre-emptive strike. With that it’s likely will be Israeli only with the US jets on the airbases in the region on standby to rebuff any potential Iranian retaliation.

From a Trump administration perspective I do not see any good that would come from this. A war with Iran will suck so much political capital. It will be catastrophic for the US economy. He ran in a platform to combat inflation. A combination of his tariffs against China,Mexico and Canada with a hot regional war in West Asia will increase to inflation to record heights. It would crush the US economy. I read somewhere that if Iran were to shit down the straits of Hormuz inflation in the US would be 18%. Plus US casualties would be very high. How would the American people respond to 10,000 dead US servicemen in two weeks of the war? Or a couple of sunken US ships? The economic and military cost would lead to an anti war movement bigger than the Vietnam anti war movement in the US. And do we think Russia and China will just standby and let Iran get pummeled by the US? They likely secretly supply Iran with weapons to bog down the US in a costly brutal war. He ran on a “peace” platform and combatting inflation. Letting Israel bomb Iran is a sure fire way to basically blow up both platforms.
Let's admit reality here. Coping time has passed.

If Iran has not escalated in the face of all the provocations from Israel and the US, it is because Iran cannot. There is no 4D chess here. If the Iranians show weakness it is because they are weak. It is superstition to expect them to have any trump card or magic.

The same thing that happened with Hezbollah.

Israel and the US will kill enemy leaders and will not lose even a single oil depot, much less casualties of important people and heads of the war, because no one has the courage to do anything against them.

What was the use of the missile stocks that Nasrallah's followers spoke so much about?

Even if there is a war with Iran, the US economy will likely continue to look good because China and even Russia will continue to buy and appreciate the dollar and thus expand US purchasing power.

Unfortunately, it's been 3 years, the US stole 300 billion from Russian reserves and has already given 20 billion of that stolen Russian money to Ukraine. And no alternative to the US system has emerged. They can do whatever they want and face no punishment, because there is still no country that dares to confront the West.

Yemen has courage, but alone it is a laughing stock for Westerners.
 
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Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Columns of Russian army and Rosgvardia units continue to converge on the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartus base in Syria. It is too early to talk about the future of Russian military bases in Syria; negotiations are currently underway with the new Syrian leadership. Earlier, the Syrian opposition gave their own security guarantees not only to Russian military bases, but also to all Russian diplomatic institutions in Syria. The second part of the video shows the operation of an airfield near the city of Qamishli, in northeastern Syria, where units of the 154th regiment of the Russian group of troops are stationed. The base is still operating, but judging by the flags, the military equipment is being prepared for movement. There are currently two key Russian bases in Syria — in Tartus and Khmeimim. Tartus is the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean.

 

Shams

New Member
Registered Member
Let's admit reality here. Coping time has passed.
I agree with you about admitting reality. However, we should be careful not to impose one's distorted version of reality here. Here is what i think. First I will admit that i might not be as educated as some other members here.
Now, i have a feeling that the big celebration about Bashar Al Assad's fall is all about assuring PR for countries who witnessed the embarrassing withdrawal for USA from Afghanistan.
Syrian rebels, who led this coup, is mainly turkish backed. They are not kurds. So i expect infighting.
Russia's pulling out from Syria is their own decision rather than any external factor. If they maintain their presence, or say will return next year, who will stop them?
Iran, the point on Iran is legit. But what happens or what will happen to them is their own doing. If i were them, i would have gone nuclear.
These all make entertaining cases for study. But what's their relevance to the bigger geo strategic calculation
Israel is too small to be considered. What they do is irrelevant.
In Ukraine, entire NATO backed down from fighting Russia. USA and NATO can also resort to supporting gorilla warfare. They tacitly admit they do not have capacity to fight any peer adversary, forget fighting two of them.
Assad's fall 10 years ago could have made things more interesting, because they could create pressure on Russia, even possibly influencing Russia- China ties.
Now what happens in West Asia bears minimum weight in braoder geo political calculation. Because Iran- Israel war, Hamas, Hezbollah they all make nice headlines. But that is not the real war. The real war is Russia , China v/s USA,West.
Ukraine , Afghanistan laid bare what's left of USA, NATO . No matter how you try to sugar coat it with Assad's fall and USA's mythical win, USA only has capacity to land bomb from aircrafts on caves, they have no real capacity to fight front war. I though Ukraine and Afghanistan has shown that to everyone.
As for Israel, they only exist as long as west supports them. I am not taking them into calculation.
 

votran

New Member
Registered Member
this enough reason for china to send military there or atleast warship carry land attack missile to bomb those MF ? how long china grovernment gonna keep the so called peaceful behavior ?
when fking western mainstream media today open calling and encorage for terrorist attack on china soil like this ?
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
this enough reason for china to send military there or atleast warship carry land attack missile to bomb those MF ? how long china grovernment gonna keep the so called peaceful behavior ?
when fking western mainstream media today open calling and encorage for terrorist attack on china soil like this ?

Or just wait and tighten security at Xinjiang and nearby country.

These people aren't gonna start insurrection without logistics, and bringing and sustaining things in central Asia there is not really easy thing to do, at least without sponsor.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
They kept denying it and denying it, insisting that "Greater Israel" is just hearsay, there is no such agenda to expand Israeli territory and that Israel only wishes to guarantee the safety of the Jewish people. But now what do you know, Sudetenland 2.0.

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It took Armenia 3 days to move out hundreds of thousands of people out Nagorno Karabakh when they lost the war and were afraid of living under Azerbaijani control for even one day. If Israel ever loses a war in any of occupied lands, setting up settler population will not allow them to make their hold stronger for even one day. Once they lose, they will leave the same day.

Sooner or later 400 million Muslims in the middle east, will have enough power and Israel's western backers will weaken enough that Israel will no longer be able to win in a war. That's when all lands Israel has captured and put settlers in will slow be given up. Israel lost this fight when Muslims converted/gave birth to 400 million people over the last 1500 years. Israel might be able to dominate temporariliy but its only that, temporary. Even the crusaders states in the Middle lasted for few centuries. But no sign of them ever being there exists.
 
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