Let's admit reality here. Coping time has passed.
I agree with you about admitting reality. However, we should be careful not to impose one's distorted version of reality here. Here is what i think. First I will admit that i might not be as educated as some other members here.
Now, i have a feeling that the big celebration about Bashar Al Assad's fall is all about assuring PR for countries who witnessed the embarrassing withdrawal for USA from Afghanistan.
Syrian rebels, who led this coup, is mainly turkish backed. They are not kurds. So i expect infighting.
Russia's pulling out from Syria is their own decision rather than any external factor. If they maintain their presence, or say will return next year, who will stop them?
Iran, the point on Iran is legit. But what happens or what will happen to them is their own doing. If i were them, i would have gone nuclear.
These all make entertaining cases for study. But what's their relevance to the bigger geo strategic calculation
Israel is too small to be considered. What they do is irrelevant.
In Ukraine, entire NATO backed down from fighting Russia. USA and NATO can also resort to supporting gorilla warfare. They tacitly admit they do not have capacity to fight any peer adversary, forget fighting two of them.
Assad's fall 10 years ago could have made things more interesting, because they could create pressure on Russia, even possibly influencing Russia- China ties.
Now what happens in West Asia bears minimum weight in braoder geo political calculation. Because Iran- Israel war, Hamas, Hezbollah they all make nice headlines. But that is not the real war. The real war is Russia , China v/s USA,West.
Ukraine , Afghanistan laid bare what's left of USA, NATO . No matter how you try to sugar coat it with Assad's fall and USA's mythical win, USA only has capacity to land bomb from aircrafts on caves, they have no real capacity to fight front war. I though Ukraine and Afghanistan has shown that to everyone.
As for Israel, they only exist as long as west supports them. I am not taking them into calculation.