Not sure is as high as $30b, imo around $15-20b. Dunno why he made this video though. Anyway, Netanyahu is taking a victory lap and taunts Iran
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
Israel has been winning a lot lately.
As much as I despise them, I must admit, by the way things are heading, they will possibly inflict worse humiliation on their adversaries than in 1967.
Reading a lot of stuff from Hebrew media and it seems there is growing consensus that Israel will strike Iranian nuclear sites. The collapse of Syria has given Israel confidence and they want to keep the momentum going. They are saying Israel could use Syrian air space as a springboard to bomb Iran. Basically fly over Syria,Iraq to hit Iran. They might do it before Trump takes office to saddle the war with Iran on him when he comes to office.
Getting a little too happy there. Still this is only the beginning and he may yet eat his words. Most of the west is literally celebrating but really isn’t this a little bit too soon for such a thing. It won’t take much for everything to go pear shaped very soon, the region is extremely unstable. Pride before the fall as it is in the olden times, a victory streak here or there doesn’t necessarily mean anything if things do not cool down
Syrian journalists have taken a panoramic video of the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria using a drone. As can be seen from the video, the aircraft are in hangars, but there are no protective nets on the hangars from drones. It is worth noting that there are presumably no anti-drone units at the base, since the drone is freely filming. Currently, the airbase is home to Russian Su-34NVO, Su-24M bombers and Su-35S fighters. Also visible in the frame are two Il-76 military transport aircraft of Russia and one Il-76 of the Syrian Air Force. According to Bloomberg, Russia is close to reaching an agreement with the new Syrian leadership on maintaining two military bases in Syria. If the agreement is concluded, the Port of Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase will remain in Syria.
The Trump transition team seems to be seriously considering a preemptive strike or fully backing an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. More than just noises now. Apart from additional sanctions and what not of course.
But someone in the transition team is also convinced Iran is trying to assassinate Trump. These cranks are up to no good, would be
hilarious if it wasn't so grim.
This would backfire heavily on Israel. If this was a rational Israeli govt they would have just create a buffer zone with Syria. Focus solely on annexation of Gaza and the West Bank. Wait until Trump gets into office to apply the maximum pressure strategy on Iran. Striking Iran is basically jumping the shark and would start a war that would lead to Israel’s demise. This goes to show it’s nothing more than Netanyahu escalating so he doesn’t go to jail and solidify his legacy as the Israeli leader that stopped Iran.
Going to strike Iran’s nuclear program is a major escalation that would lead to all out war. Plus there is no guarantee it would even work. The US military even admits the only way to truly stop Irans nuclear program is a ground invasion. The US doesn’t have the manpower or willpower to fight a ground war in Iran. They take Iran’s reluctance for full scale regional war as weakness. It’s the same thing the west is doing with Russia regarding Ukraine. They see reluctance to escalate as weakness. Also Israel is opportunistic.
Trump has assembled an even more Zionist cabinet. It’s like he is trying to out Zionist Biden at this point. So Israel can easily convince Trump that Iran is on the back foot and they can strike the nuclear facilities. And when Iran retaliates harshly against Israel the US will then join in. I highly doubt the Trump administration will sit by and let Israel get battered. Plus I can see people telling Trump this is his chance to be the president that crushed the mullahs.
It will likely be an Israeli operation because the US doesn’t have enough assets to do a joint operation with Israel. For a sustained air campaign against Iran the US needs 5-6 aircraft carriers in the region. And to accumulate that amount of force would take months. And do we thing Iran will sit idly by like Saddam and let the US to build up its forces to bomb it? Not at all. Iran would launch a pre-emptive strike. With that it’s likely will be Israeli only with the US jets on the airbases in the region on standby to rebuff any potential Iranian retaliation.
From a Trump administration perspective I do not see any good that would come from this. A war with Iran will suck so much political capital. It will be catastrophic for the US economy. He ran in a platform to combat inflation. A combination of his tariffs against China,Mexico and Canada with a hot regional war in West Asia will increase to inflation to record heights. It would crush the US economy. I read somewhere that if Iran were to shit down the straits of Hormuz inflation in the US would be 18%. Plus US casualties would be very high. How would the American people respond to 10,000 dead US servicemen in two weeks of the war? Or a couple of sunken US ships? The economic and military cost would lead to an anti war movement bigger than the Vietnam anti war movement in the US. And do we think Russia and China will just standby and let Iran get pummeled by the US? They likely secretly supply Iran with weapons to bog down the US in a costly brutal war. He ran on a “peace” platform and combatting inflation. Letting Israel bomb Iran is a sure fire way to basically blow up both platforms.
According to Financial Times, Israel has seized the opportunity to completely obliterate Syria’s air defense capability in the last week:
“
Israel has also seized on the chaos to destroy much of what’s left of the Syrian armed forces, carrying out hundreds of air strikes and destroying in about 10 days what took Syria decades to build.
In the past week hundreds of Israeli warplanes entered Syrian airspace to destroy billions of dollars’ worth of military assets, including Syria’s vast air defence network, at least five air force squadrons and a missile production facility, said the Israel Defense Forces.
It also destroyed 90 per cent of Syria’s “identified strategic surface-to-air missiles”, establishing uncontested superiority over Syrian airspace — which Israeli jets have had to navigate with care in assaults against Iran this year.”
Interesting that they phrased as opening the door wide open towards Iran.
“
Israel has also seized on the chaos to destroy much of what’s left of the Syrian armed forces, carrying out hundreds of air strikes and destroying in about 10 days what took Syria decades to build.
In the past week hundreds of Israeli warplanes entered Syrian airspace to destroy billions of dollars’ worth of military assets, including Syria’s vast air defence network, at least five air force squadrons and a missile production facility, said the Israel Defense Forces.
It also destroyed 90 per cent of Syria’s “identified strategic surface-to-air missiles”, establishing uncontested superiority over Syrian airspace — which Israeli jets have had to navigate with care in assaults against Iran this year.”
Interesting that they phrased as opening the door wide open towards Iran.
What vast air defense network?
Syria has only had the S300s which are networked and operated by the Russians. I think all of those are intact, because the Russian bases haven't been touched.
Some other stuff actually operated by the SAA like ancient crotales and AAA guns are by definition not an air defense network, as they're not capable of network engagement.
Either way Syria had essentially nothing during Assad and will need to build up a new force from nothing now, losing some rotting AAA guns changes very little. It is essentially going from 0.1 to 0. Whatever gains in army morale they got from going Islamist and ability to attract back refugees so they can draft more people is an entirely more important offset.
The real problem is how the SNA will pay for restoring the Syrian army into a force capable of unification. Israel's opportunistic attack before they can get their bearings only slightly complicates the situation.