Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
The Israel of the past could make such deals with a country that was a credible threat. But can the even more ideological society of today's Israel make a land for peace deal with a weak, disarmed neighbour? It's not in their nature. For the people of Syria that would be a huge win and they could receive aid from the west and rebuild and become another Jordan. But that's a fantasy
would be nice maybe for the people. But for those still want to march to Gaza.. there will be problems. I can see no real way Jolani can handle these group except repression and we will have "Egypt 2.0".
The whole populations despise Israel but nothing is done in state levels.
Sinai returned because of strong Egyptian military pressure and performance, and Israel cut their loss to focus down other existential threat in that war.
Today Israel face neither imminent threat nor could Jihadi Syria pose a threat worth considering.
The fall is Syria is a blow for Iran to arm and equip Hezbollah. But like you said Iran is in decent shape. Iraq is an ally. This gives Iran some breathing space. Plus the Iraqi Shia militias have capability to strike Israel as well. So expect more Iranian investment in that. Yemen is still undeterred. Iran is likely going to focus on getting modern equipment from Russia and prepare for the next war.
For Hezbollah they are still a formidable force however they must prepare for the scenario of a second Lebanese civil war. Lebanon’s economy has totally collapsed and there is anger and sectarian tensions. The Sunnis of Lebanon see Jolani as a hero and in the early days of the war there was attempts of Syrian jihadist to link up with Lebanese jihadist. The Lebanese army and Hezbollah fought side by side with each in Sidon and the border regions. Now that the militants have a free hand they will likely turn their eyes on Lebanon. Don’t be surprised if there is an another Lebanese civil war in the next 3-4 years. The Lebanese Christian’s may be forced to join Hezbollahs side. And let’s be real Israel May see this as an opportunity and start invading Lebanon forcing Hezbollah to fight a two front war. So things are grim for Hezbollah.
Israel has made short term gains. And they know demographically their support from the west is on borrowed time. The youth in the west despise Israel. Israel cannot expect this same level of support in 10-15 years. With Trump coming to office expect Israel to truly go for broke because this maybe their last chance. That means annexation of Gaza and the West Bank. Annexing more Syrian territory. Go for another bloody round with Hezbollah. Maybe make a serious move on Al Aqsa Mosque. And lastly get the US to fight a war with Iran on their behalf. Israel knows this is the best opportunity they’ll get to reach their goals. Israel isn’t led by rational leader like in the past. They are led by the most far right leaders in Israeli history. And the populace has been even more radicalized and wants to keep expanding no matter the consequences. Again like I said full annexation of the West Bank is going to led to unrest in Jordan which the militants in Syria will take advantage of. Israel doesn’t care. If Jordan collapse they might annex more land. Same with Egypt. The next couple of years are going to be very bloody in the region. Libya fell and look at the ramifications of that on the Sahel region in Africa. It empowered Boko Haram and AQIM. Same will happen in West Asia.
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Footage of underground tunnels of the former Syrian army has been published. The Syrian army previously used these tunnels to store military equipment and R-17 ballistic missiles of the 9K72 Elbrus complex, also known as Scud. The 9K72 Elbrus missile system was developed in the USSR in 1957. The Syrian army used Scud-B, Scud-S and Scud-D missiles, developed from 1964 to 1985.
Iran ain't got any breathing space. Trump comes at power in a month and he and his cronies are out for blood for Iran. His hawks are already making up scenarios for reenactment of maximum pressure against Iran (even more than the first time), and far more willing to back military action against it with Netanyahu's blessing ofc
There is no breathing space here, in fact imo Iran is getting into an extremely dangerous phase, probably the most dangerous in decades.
Will this be happening if the new Syria recognize Israel ?
As given the new leader's priority would be rebuilding, that means get off sanctions, getting off sanctions can easily be a way to force new Syria to recognize Israel, should this be happening then Those wants to march into Palestine may end up being massacared by Jolani.
You are actually right there are reports Israel is preparing attacks on Iran nuclear program. The collapse in Syria has given Israel some confidence. Although Trump has said he doesn’t want war with Iran, his cabinet is full of Zionist who want war with Iran. Iran is between a rock and a hard place. Their options are double and launch a devastating attack on Israel risking a total regional that collapses the global economy. Develop nuclear weapons but deal with heavy sanctions from the west for a very long time. Or be on the defensive empowering their Shia allies in Iraq for a possible showdown with the US and work with the Russians get the Su-35 to reinforce their Air Force and other modern Russian weaponry. Thing is I doubt Trump would want a major war with Iran as that will sap a lot of political capital. He is more interested in domestic issues like immigration and purging the government bureaucracy. But who knows what Israel has planned.
Does that include UNDOF zone that Israel captured after fall of Assad ? The area they annexed will never return, I agree with that for sure.
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