Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

There is no need to cope the loss of Syria. It is what it is. It might feel good to cope today, but you lose grasp of future. Best to accept it and plan future accordingly.

On topic of Israel, I am not expecting big Israel attack. What I expect is Israel grab some freebies, attack some bases, and stop. Their focus is elsewhere. It is time to focus down Lebanon and Gaza.

Syrian threat is completely nullified. The ruling faction is boiled down to infighting, and more or less share consensus of not fuck with Israel. With Syrians subdued, going after Lebanon and Gaza is easier.

Biscuits said:

Because the Syrian navy was able to do so much damage against Israel before, they have achieved a great victory in lifting the blockade of the mighty Syrian navy.

Only thing being achieved here is cementing that a future Syria-Israel conflict will take place.

How's that 2 week Gaza invasion going lmfao

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The point is the impunity with which Israel is able to conduct itself - attacking a country that hasn't even threatened it, much less actually attacked it.
And have we even heard any frustration, let alone threat of retaliation, from the HTS/Syrian rebels? They've been awfully quite, and in fact there are videos floating around where Al-Julani says that Syria is in no shape to confront Israel, and that Iran is Syria's biggest threat.

This reminds me of Germany, which stays quite when US attacks its critical infrastructure (NS pipeline), but goes ballistic against Russia, which never even threatened it. What explains this strange behavior? It's simple: countries lash out against weak opponents, but swallow their pride when slapped and humiliated by powerful ones.

TK3600 said:

On topic of Israel, I am not expecting big Israel attack. What I expect is Israel grab some freebies, attack some bases, and stop. Their focus is elsewhere. It is time to focus down Lebanon and Gaza.

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We have also seen Israel can't really hold ground anymore that they haven't captured already in the previous wars. Even in Gaza they have had to pull back on many areas as they spread to thin, let alone places like Lebanon; they pull back as soon as they face a stiff breeze of a pushback and then call in the Air Force to do collective punishment in the rear areas.

In the end it might depend on how much a collective of cucks the sunni's are.

gullible said:

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Footage shows Syrian rebels in Damascus vowing: ‘From here to Jerusalem. We’re coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza’​

is the news real?

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Is it surprising? From rebel to terrorist.. where have I seen that before?

Stealthflanker said:

Well regarding Mt Hermon tho.. Coverage wise.. if Israel do put Radar there and with some 40 m Pole. Like what Russians did on Kerch.

The coverage is kinda like this, this is for target altitude range from 10 m to 10000 m.

View attachment 140697


From this Shadow contour, it can be seen there would still be coverage gaps from the north. and notable smaller gaps to the east. However Damascus is covered.

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Israel flooded its northern peaks with small radars but could not stop Hezbollah rockets from literally less than 10km range which obliterated them. Countless videos on this thread of ATGM and drones wrecking Israeli equipment mounted on towers.

And the captured area of Mt Hermon is like a narrow pincer, maybe a few kilometers in width of rugged mountains surrounded on three sides by Syria and Lebanon. Not really defendable against attacks.

canonicalsadhu said:

This reminds me of Germany, which stays quite when US attacks its critical infrastructure (NS pipeline), but goes ballistic against Russia, which never even threatened it. What explains this strange behavior? It's simple: countries lash out against weak opponents, but swallow their pride when slapped and humiliated by powerful ones.

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There's a simpler explanation: vassal-liege interaction. Germany is not allowed to lash out against it's master, just as Japan isn't when it's master rapes teenage girls in Okinawa. So why would the "rebels" lash out against their master? Gazans and Yemenis didn't swallow their pride, despite being among the weakest on the planet.

Stealthflanker said:

I wonder who's still arming them to this day ? They did remarkable job and keep fighting although the situation is at the moment very dire.

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They likely have a supply lines into the Sinai Pennisula and the Egyptian likely looks the other way.

sheogorath said:

We have also seen Israel can't really hold ground anymore that they haven't captured already in the previous wars. Even in Gaza they have had to pull back on many areas as they spread to thin, let alone places like Lebanon; they pull back as soon as they face a stiff breeze of a pushback and then call in the Air Force to do collective punishment in the rear areas.

In the end it might depend on how much a collective of cucks the sunni's are.

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Israel won’t hold the territory it controls in Syria. Maybe an extended buffer zone of the Golan Heights. They are destroying Syrian military infrastructure. They do not want scuds in the hands of low iq wahhhabist. It’s likely a negotiating ploy for the future Syrian elected government. Basically “we will give you back the land if you stop being hostile to Israel and controls your head choppers from turning their eyes to us. Also prevent any re-armament of Hezbollah no matter arrangements your Turkish overlords have with Iran.”

The problem for Israel is that Syria is the lynchpin of the Middle East. Its instability is going to spread to neighboring nations. Also if Israel goes along with annexation of the West Bank that’s is going to destabilize Jordan as the rage is boiling. Millions of Palestinians rushing to the Jordanian border will enflame the anger towards the royal family. And guess who borders Jordan as well? Syria. If the Jordanian monarchy faces a real revolt I can see the Syrian jihadist turn their eyes to Jordan. And the Syrian Arab tribes have familial ties with the Jordan Arab tribes. Israel doesn’t realize how fragile the balance in west Asia is right now. And at the end of the day the Arab and Turkish street despises Israel. There is only so much bribing and repression of this anger can go far. Long term Israel is screwed as it becomes more unhinged,right wing and fascistic.

I think it is time to alter the thread rules. One of my post was deleted for mentioning Russia. But I think it is undeserved. Israeli invasion of Syria is very much on topic. Russian military base is relevant to topic because Russian neutrality consensus with Israel. Any subsequent Israeli/Russian operation will proceed in a way to avoid antagonising each other.

Meanwhile there is irrelevant posts talking about Germany(no influence in the region at all), while mentioning Russian base is strictly forbidden.

TK3600 said:

There is no need to cope the loss of Syria. It is what it is. It might feel good to cope today, but you lose grasp of future. Best to accept it and plan future accordingly.

On topic of Israel, I am not expecting big Israel attack. What I expect is Israel grab some freebies, attack some bases, and stop. Their focus is elsewhere. It is time to focus down Lebanon and Gaza.

Syrian threat is completely nullified. The ruling faction is boiled down to infighting, and more or less share consensus of not fuck with Israel. With Syrians subdued, going after Lebanon and Gaza is easier.

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The fall of Syria is a loss for the regional fight against Israel, yes. But Assad's Syria was so incompetent, it was just a drain of money for Russia and Iran and they might even have sabotaged Iranian commanders in Syria and with Hezbollah. How will the resources that used to go to Syria be used in the future? More missiles, Su35 imports, building up Iraqi militias etc. The US lost the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan, but the country benefited from the end of the war

The destruction of Syria's assets even makes it harder for the Sunni jihadis to go after the Shias in Lebanon

The more Israel gets involved in Syria, the better for the Palestinians and Lebanese, as it distracts Israeli attention from them and eventually the new Syrian government will have to respond

Minm said:

The fall of Syria is a loss for the regional fight against Israel, yes. But Assad's Syria was so incompetent, it was just a drain of money for Russia and Iran and they might even have sabotaged Iranian commanders in Syria and with Hezbollah. How will the resources that used to go to Syria be used in the future? More missiles, Su35 imports, building up Iraqi militias etc. The US lost the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan, but the country benefited from the end of the war

The destruction of Syria's assets even makes it harder for the Sunni jihadis to go after the Shias in Lebanon

The more Israel gets involved in Syria, the better for the Palestinians and Lebanese, as it distracts Israeli attention from them and eventually the new Syrian government will have to respond

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My hunch is Syrian story will continue in another direction. It will be less of a battleground for military but more of a diplomatic battleground. Its allegiance is not yet set in stone.

It seem to accept Russian presence.

It is reluctant to oppose Israel.

It has attention turned inward. It will stabilize. Once the internal conflict gets resolved one way or another, I think it will pick a firmer position. It could turn pro Israel for all we know, we cant predict it.

Israeli commitment in Syria is unlikely to distract from operation elsewhere. Because Syria is not contesting it.

Hi,
it looks like next in line to have proper diplomatic ties with Israel
will be Syria once a government will form with all the stake holders
and of cource after returning the disputed Golan areas with the USA
approval Donald trump probably will succeed again to formally making
Israel and Syria to shake hands and establish diplomatic ties
thank you