Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
- Your source is wrong and math illiterate, let it go.
- Ballistic missile accuracy is measured using CEP, tell me what C stand for in CEP
Just because the term is called Circular Error Probable doesn’t imply that the distribution will be circular in shape. It is well known that in the case of ballistic missiles the distribution is NOT circular. Therefore, all the probability figures you were throwing around are flat wrong and irrelevant.

The distribution instead can be approximated with a bivariate elliptical normal distribution, because downrange misses are more pronounced.
 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
While blaming all Jews is antisemitic and should be avoided, the notion that Zionists control Western governments by exploiting their guilt about Holocaust and Christian Fundamentalist's obsession with Rapture shouldn't be controversial.

If you blame "all Jews" you're not being antisemitic. Anti-semitism is one and only one very specific thing - anti-Jewish racism.

It comes from 18th and 19th century pseudoscientific theories on "race" which identified Jews as a "Semitic race". The very same pseudoscientific theories led to the creation of the notion of the "Aryan race".

The best example and the best practical definition of anti-semitism is in the Nuremberg Laws of Nazi Germany from 1935. The law defines categories of citizens based on their "racial" or "blood" heritage. Up to 1/8 of Jewish ancestry was considered "German blood". Between 3/8 and 1/2 Jewish ancestry was "mixed-blood" (Mischling). Anything more than that put the individual as "Jew" unconditionally. German-blood and mixed-blood individuals were eligible for German citizenship. "Jews" were not.

Note that it didn't matter what religion you professed or what cultural traditions you upheld. Your ancestry alone decides the outcome. An individual had no ability to choose for himself.

Nazi genocide of Jews wasn't caused by their "hatred of Jews" but by their belief in the racist pseudoscience which told them that Jewish culture was biological and couldn't be reformed. Jews were literal disease in the body of German nation that had to be contained and eliminated. Nazi belief was that the reason why Germany was weak e.g. lost the war was caused by Jewish influence. This was why despite widespread anti-Jewish prejudice in Russia millions of Jews lived there since 17th century until 1991 while Nazis began implementing their policies of racial cleansing within a year of coming to power.

You can easily contrast anti-semitism with anti-Judaism of Christians who were prejudiced against Jews on religious grounds as people who profess a religion. Christian anti-Judaism is therefore explicitly a prejudice against an action - a voluntary choice. If a Jew converted to Christianity and proved his faith he would not be treated as a Jew as it would be sinful to do so toward a brother in Christ. Whenever there was prejudice against converts it always was fueled by either false rumours, suspicions or incidents of these converts continuing their previous religious practices or customs or retaining close ties with their former community. Those incidents would then be extended to the entire population imposing guilt by association and leading to mass persecution.
  • Christian prejudice is: "these people had a choice and rejected it"
  • Anti-semitic prejudice is: "it doesn't matter what these people choose to do because their nature rules them".
A Christian who is loyal to Christian religious doctrine will be pressured to nevertheless "love thy enemy" even if he holds personal prejudice against Jews. On the other hand a Nazi who is loyal to Nazi doctrine will have to support racial cleansing even if they hold no personal prejudice against Jews. The difference couldn't be more explicit and history confirms it. And yet...

Many Jewish groups and almost all Zionists promote the distorted understanding of "anti-semitism" as any type of prejudice against Jews. It's a malicious lie that erases the knowledge of why a horrific event occurred and instills fear of the event becoming a possibility for one's perceived benefit.

It is an evil act and needs to be treated as such. Its propagators are people who consciously choose evil and need to be treated as such.

And just so that there is no misunderstanding - genuine anti-semites or people who think like them but express their views in the framework of a different ideology or religion - are also evil.

It's precisely because we have very good understanding of how human behaviour and core moral principles are formed and informed during life that to deny it is possibly the single most evil act because it is the blurring of lines dividing good from evil.


The second most influential group in US politics after the Jewish Zionists are the Evangelical Christian Zionist nutters. So, Israel is no longer just a military-political tool for the West, but also a religious necessity for American Evangelicals' interpretation of Christian eschatology.

The most influential group in US politics are billionaires. Being a Jewish Zionist or Christian Zionist is (1) a disguise and a distraction, (2) psychopathic confidence trick described above.

Rapture is a narcissistic power fantasy of being the "chosen one" not a genuinely spiritual belief in the nature of salvation. Rapture is rejected by all established Christian churches as it is inspired by mistranslation of the text. You give these people something else to feel chosen one about and they forget about Israel as quickly as they became obsessed by it.

There are two competing theories why the US backs Israel unconditionally.

1. Noam Chomsky's theory of "Israel as a US vassal"

2. John Mearsheimer's theory of the "Israel lobby"

Chomsky and Mearsheimer are correct at the same time. They represent the two perspectives in any bilateral relationship and do so with personal bias. Chomsky (Jew) wants to excuse Jews. Marsheimer (German-Irish Christian) wants to excuse Americans. In reality Israel is a US vassal (a political entity that owes its current political position to a different political entity) since US effectively prevented state collapse in 1980s. But since Israel is not happy about the asymmetric relationship with the US it established an extensive overt and covert influence network to "wag the dog" as much as possible.

However:

US does not support Israel unconditionally. The US does only what is necessary to maintain Israel's position as the tool of US foreign policy. US protects Israeli policy toward Palestine because if Israel was forced to revise it it would stop being useful to the US - as the only way to do so would be to transform Israel into a more democratic and less militarised state.

US doesn't need a democratic and peaceful Israel. It needs a rabid dog on a chain that it alone can constrain (but with great effort so you better do what the US politely asks of you or they may get tired holding the chain).

Israel is the tool of influencing Arab dictatorships by keeping the general population of the countries angry at Israel and thus putting the ruling class at a knife's edge because of their pragmatic and cynical attitude to Israel.

For example Saudi Arabia i.e. Arab state ruled by the house of Saud is a state that exists only through constant bribery of its population enabled by oil wealth. Saudis have an agreement with Pakistan that in case of anti-Saudi uprising Pakistan will intervene. They similarly have an agreement that if Iran develops nuclear weapons Pakistan will provide nuclear warheads for Saudi Strategic Missile Force which uses Chinese DF-3 and DF-21 delivery systems, sans warhead.

Every single Gulf monarchy is permanently on the brink of a revolution - especially a religious one against secular regimes.

How do you trigger one? You provide the excuse for the next Caliph leading the charge against the defilers of Al-Aqsa. So US loosens the leash a little and the Arab rulers begin to sweat.

This is incidentally why Saudi Arabia was involved in 9/11. They hate US imperial policy in the region just as Israel does - while at the same time trying to use that imperial potential to their own purposes.
 
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MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
Huge deal if true, haven't found any corroboration yet

Before this thread becomes flooded with compulsion-driven nervous or excited speculation:
  • accounts unable to differentiate between "reactor scale" and "Richter scale" as well as think Richter expresses magnitude in "%" should be ignored by default
  • Iran is one of the most active seismic regions, a mag 4 earthquake is far more likely than a nuclear test
  • Seismic magnitude scales are logarythmic so the values reflect orders of magnitude rather than gradual growth like linear scales - the difference between mag. 5 or mag. 6 earthquake and mag. 4 is tremendous.
  • earthquake generates seismic waves in patterns that are significantly different from an undeground nuclear explosion so it is possible to tell the two apart with high reliability
  • North Korean 2006 underground test had magnitude of 4.3
If it's plausible you will see reports in multiple credible outlets within the next few at maximum 2 to 4 hours. Wait until then. And this Twitter account belongs in trash. Throw it there at 4,6% of reactor speed.
 
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CaribouTruth

New Member
Registered Member
Before this thread becomes flooded with compulsion-driven speculation;
  • accounts unable to differentiate between "reactor scale" and "Richter scale" as well as think Richter expresses magnitude in "%" should be ignored by default
  • Iran is one of the most active seismic regions, a mag 4 earthquake is more likely than a nuclear test
  • earthquake generates seismic waves in patterns that are significantly different from an undeground nuclear explosion so it is possible to tell the two apart with high reliability
  • North Korean 2006 underground test had magnitude of 4.3
If it's plausible you will see reports in multiple credible outlets within the next few at maximum 2 to 4 hours. Wait until then. And this Twitter account belongs in trash.
The earthquake happened more than 12 hours ago, any amateur with the seismic data could've figured out the lack of tectonic P/S wave pattern by now.
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Before this thread becomes flooded with compulsion-driven nervous or excited speculation:
  • accounts unable to differentiate between "reactor scale" and "Richter scale" as well as think Richter expresses magnitude in "%" should be ignored by default
  • Iran is one of the most active seismic regions, a mag 4 earthquake is far more likely than a nuclear test
  • Seismic magnitude scales are logarythmic so the values reflect orders of magnitude rather than gradual growth like linear scales - the difference between mag. 5 or mag. 6 earthquake and mag. 4 is tremendous.
  • earthquake generates seismic waves in patterns that are significantly different from an undeground nuclear explosion so it is possible to tell the two apart with high reliability
  • North Korean 2006 underground test had magnitude of 4.3
If it's plausible you will see reports in multiple credible outlets within the next few at maximum 2 to 4 hours. Wait until then. And this Twitter account belongs in trash. Throw it there at 4,6% of reactor speed.

Which is why the first thing I do is look for corroboration, but thanks for those tidbits of common knowledge anyway
 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
Which is why the first thing I do is look for corroboration, but thanks for those tidbits of common knowledge anyway

That's a lie.

"Huge deal if true, haven't found any corroboration yet " - is an attempt to add credibility to an blatantly sensationalist and incompetently phrased rumour from a retard-quality political troll account. You're not signalling potentially misleading or false ature of the information but attempting to present it as a potentially true but unverified yet. That's what you did.

What I did was list the most obvious reasons why this tweet should have never been posted in the first place on any self-respecting discussion forum as it not only adds fuel to pointless and harmful speculation but also legitimises toxic social media accounts and narratives.

And since these were such "common knowledge anyway" why didn't you choose to help and stem the flood of unhealthy sensationalism and harmful disinformation but instead sought to legitimise it???

This was a simple choice between a socially beneficial act and a socially harmful act.

You're part of the problem and you're throwing an idiotic hissy fit because you got caught.
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
That's a lie.

"Huge deal if true, haven't found any corroboration yet " - is an attempt to add credibility to an blatantly sensationalist and incompetently phrased rumour from a retard-quality political troll account. You're not signalling potentially misleading or false ature of the information but attempting to present it as a potentially true but unverified yet. That's what you did.

What I did was list the most obvious reasons why this tweet should have never been posted in the first place on any self-respecting discussion forum as it not only adds fuel to pointless and harmful speculation but also legitimises toxic social media accounts and narratives.

And since these were such "common knowledge anyway" why didn't you choose to help and stem the flood of unhealthy sensationalism and harmful disinformation but instead sought to legitimise it???

This was a simple choice between a socially beneficial act and a socially harmful act.

You're part of the problem and you're throwing an idiotic hissy fit because you got caught.

Calm down, I don't know how clear I can be when I stated "if true" and "no corroboration". I don't know what's your deal but You're just projecting all that crazy intention over a simple comment, drink some tea or touch some grass or whatever, lay off the coffee yeah? Over analyzing every simple words is gonna be bad for your health
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
In rational strategy - nowhere. Nuclear weapons are last resort for when no other option is available. Israel has options.
Israel has 7 million Jews. The state and economy will shut down within weeks if more than 20% of population is committed to defense and between the occupied territories, security at home (vs terror attacks) and defending the country against half a million militants that's the number of people that would be required.



US has never replaced stealth fighters for Israel. When Israel last needed US aircraft replacements it was 1973 and the aircraft were F-4s and A-4s which were in use by USAF with no modifications.

F-35I is not F-35A. The primary difference being hardware modifications for Israeli nuclear deployment but other reasons exist as well. But even if Israel accepted the baseline variant in a crisis the reserve at LM is a back-log of deliveries not meeting specific technical criteria and LM does not have any free resources as the are still behind schedule. They are meeting formal conditions for "delivery" to receive payment but not for the aircraft to be put into service. This means that these are not "service ready" aircraft that are awaiting TR3 but at any time could be put into action because if that was the case then LM would be selling F-35s at different rate than it does currently. The waiting time is 6-7 years at minimum. Poland was able to order its F-35s in 2020 with delivery in 2026 because they were Turkish F-35s and that number is mostly up - Finland taking a lot with their 64.

F-35 is as different from F-4 in terms of combat readiness as F-4 is from 4F4.

Using those retained F-35s LM could plausibly prepare a replacement for Israel in under a year but "under a year" is not fast enough in the scenario that I was considering.

And focusing on stealth fighters is a mistaken notion. In most air operations it is the fast-turnaround workhorse that does the heavy lifting. For Israel that is the F-16. Any air counter to ground operations will not be decided by F-35s or F-15Is but by the numerous reliable F-16s. Exactly as it was done in 1991 in the Gulf.

You are starting to lose me here … Israel should be concerned of a hypothetical paramilitary armed and equipped by Iran coming from Egypt and Pakistan !?

Israel is going all out again Hezbollah and bombing the daylights out of them. Hezbolllah is fighting back as hard as they can, but unfortunately for them it is falling far short of even the most pessimistic expectations.

The way I see it, the size and capability of IDF ground forces is a function of the immediate threat Israel faces along its borders. That threat is far lower today than it was in the 20th century. If the threat was more significant, it would’ve been reflected in IDF force structure.

We don’t really know if Iran has the capability to destroy the Israeli air force on the ground. Their first attack with their mainstay liquid fuel ballistic missiles completely failed at inflicting any meaningful damage on Israeli airbases.

The second attack with their newest solid fuel hypersonic missiles fared much better, but required a huge expenditure of missiles to hit 2 hangars. It’s unclear if the one that hit the hardened F-35 shelter did any internal damage. Those are not cheap missiles and I suspect Iran does not have them in numbers needed to suppress and potentially destroy Israel’s air force on the ground.
 
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