So Israel would replace combat effective F-35s with basically glorified trainer aircraft. Neat.
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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
The combat readiness is indeed unclear. The interim TR-3 baseline is cleared for training, but likely could be used in combat should push come to shove.If Israel loses its fleet of F-35, You can’t expect them to be replaced so quickly, those aircraft are expensive and take a long time to build and refit. If the USAF is refusing to accept them, then it simply means that it isn’t combat ready. If they were to lose its current supply of aircraft, it would be a massive blow to Israel that isn’t going to be able to recover from very fast
There’s about a 100 F-35s parked at LM facilities waiting to be delivered.
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With the shortfall on engine, most of them are parked and empty, they got some production gap in parts an engine and non flying aircrafts have been source of replacements.The combat readiness is indeed unclear. The interim TR-3 baseline is cleared for training, but likely could be used in combat should push come to shove.
There’s about a 100 F-35s parked at LM facilities waiting to be delivered.
And US is not ready yet to make a move on Iran. Or on Taiwan.You still haven’t told me who this peer competitor is that Israel should be worried about? Last time I checked, Israel and Iran don’t share a land border.
Obviously, the US will provide logistical and ISR support. The US is already deeply involved and orchestrating the entire affair while maintaining plausible deniability.
Even if Israel should lose it’s stealth fighter fleet on the ground, the US will replace it, like they did before. LM built up a huge reserve of F-35s that the USAF is refusing to accept until they’ve been upgraded to TR-3.
It’s not clear if Iran has enough of the new generation solid fuel missiles. The salvo they fired in April had horrible accuracy and are useless against military targets.
China will not attempt to make a move on Taiwan. They are not ready yet.
But present conditions might force US to commit forces into a fight they can't sustain, and that in turn creates the conditions for the forces otherwise pinning most of US to start exploiting the gaps.
- Your source is wrong and math illiterate, let it go.It wasn’t an argument. I was citing a source. You’ve yet to demonstrate what exactly is wrong there, other than making a lot of noise.
When ballistic missiles are concerned the distribution is not circular.
Does China manufacture Iran’s MRBM? I didn’t think so. Whatever it costs in China is irrelevant.
- Ballistic missile accuracy is measured using CEP, tell me what C stand for in CEP
- Does China build the guidance system and chips in Iran's MRBMs? Nah it must be Iran's own electronic and chip industry. China only builds KZ1 one at a time though, Iran builds missiles in batches of hundreds.
It's very dangerous for US, China and even Russia alike if lower tier powers suddenly are justified in randomly using nukes just when they're at disadvantage.
It will give small countries an unacceptable level of strength at the negotiating table. Imagine who will be next to acquire and then use nukes against their political enemies. Iran? Some African dictator? Everyone will be rushing to make nukes, and those who can't make nukes will make dirty bombs.
Hell, North Korea today has a more developed nuclear program than Israel, and they can take the peninsula in a week if they spammed nukes. They can nuke a supposedly more powerful nation like Japan, and there's precisely nothing Japan can do about it.
All this is going to break the monopoly of large scale violence that the big 3 currently have. Without nukes, no one can credibly invade without huge military, intelligence and supply chain assets. With nukes, even a weak country that can't take a Chechnya sized area like Israel can credibly threaten regional powers. Or NK destroy SK despite SK being more developed.
If US has any modicum of self preservation, it's keeping those Israeli nukes under lock and key, only for the eventuality of extreme indiscriminate state/ethnic group threatening violence against Tel Aviv. The same way China has mostly kept Pyongyang's warheads.
Honestly this is the most worrying aspect of the situation, given Israel's past behavior I think it is very possible Israel may resort to nukes if they find themselves on the losing end of the escalation ladder and I doubt US has a leash on Israel.
Iran's biggest mistake is pussyfooting about nukes, detonate one already and they'll find all the noise went away as it become fait accompli, kind of like how NK drop out of the news once they detonated
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The combat readiness is indeed unclear. The interim TR-3 baseline is cleared for training, but likely could be used in combat should push come to shove.
There’s about a 100 F-35s parked at LM facilities waiting to be delivered.
lol, papa US will give us this Papa US will give us that. 100 F-35 is a whole year of US production, at this rate Israel will defeat the US air force and US navy before China even fire a shot
- Its not US providing Israel with ISR support you need to worry about, it's the ones providing Iran with ISR support. Iran is used to planning around Israel having ISR, Israel is not used to planing against Iran having ISR.You still haven’t told me who this peer competitor is that Israel should be worried about? Last time I checked, Israel and Iran don’t share a land border.
Obviously, the US will provide logistical and ISR support. The US is already deeply involved and orchestrating the entire affair while maintaining plausible deniability.
Even if Israel should lose it’s stealth fighter fleet on the ground, the US will replace it, like they did before. LM built up a huge reserve of F-35s that the USAF is refusing to accept until they’ve been upgraded to TR-3.
It’s not clear if Iran has enough of the new generation solid fuel missiles. The salvo they fired in April had horrible accuracy and are useless against military targets.
China will not attempt to make a move on Taiwan. They are not ready yet.
- If Israel loses it's stealth fighter fleet on the ground, US will just send their active service F-35s, not TR3s, and then Israel will lose those also.
- It wasn't clear Iran can hit Israel with 200 missiles a week ago, now it's clear. Maybe this should be a hint to how many things you're not clear about.
- China doesn't need to move on Taiwan, if you think US is fighting proxy wars with plausible deniability, wait til you find out China has unlimited partnership with Iran's arms supplier.
I don't think it's necessarily Iran's fault. It's hard/impossible to make nukes on your own. And Iran is most likely not only receiving no support, but actually negative support in this matter. Because China and Russia would rather use Iran as a battering ram on US, like NATO used Afghanistan on USSR.Honestly this is the most worrying aspect of the situation, given Israel's past behavior I think it is very likely Israel may resort to nukes if they find themselves on the losing end of the escalation ladder and I doubt US has a leash on Israel.
Iran's biggest mistake is pussyfooting about nukes, detonate one already and they'll find all the noise went away as it become fait accompli, kind of like how NK drop out of the news once they detonated
Ever wondered why Israel could assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists? But not Iranian missile or drone scientists?
Everything that supports Iran's conventional porcupine strategy is all very safe. Nobody messed with the guys that brought down the RQ-170. Or with the massive Geran and ballistic missile supply chain.
A likely explanation is that sectors that foreigners care about have foreign intelligence security detail. Mossad might be better than IRGC but they are worse than MSS or even FSB. Particularly so in Iran which is the enemy's home court.
That Iran's nuclear program does not enjoy such protection should tell you a lot. I will go short of accusing foreign intelligence of directly sabotaging Iranian nukes, but the omission of protection itself could be seen as a form of sabotage.
I don't think it's necessarily Iran's fault. It's hard/impossible to make nukes on your own. And Iran is most likely not only receiving no support, but actually negative support in this matter. Because China and Russia would rather use Iran as a battering ram on US, like NATO used Afghanistan on USSR.
Ever wondered why Israel could assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists? But not Iranian missile or drone scientists?
Everything that supports Iran's conventional porcupine strategy is all very safe. Nobody messed with the guys that brought down the RQ-170. Or with the massive Geran and ballistic missile supply chain.
A likely explanation is that sectors that foreigners care about have foreign intelligence security detail. Mossad might be better than IRGC but they are worse than MSS or even FSB. Particularly so in Iran which is the enemy's home court.
That Iran's nuclear program does not enjoy such protection should tell you a lot. I will go short of accusing foreign intelligence of directly sabotaging Iranian nukes, but the omission of protection itself could be seen as a form of sabotage.
Everything you said is true, but still I suspect Iran had a lot of internal debate that is slowing down their nuclear program. Now that they've reached over 90% concentration it is really the final stretch, if they're smart they should go about assembling already