Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

iewgnem said:

That's not how CEP works, a CEP of say 50 meters with uniform distribution for simplicity would result in only 1 in 2500 chance of hitting a 1 meter target with the other 249 landing near but not centered on the target, clearly there are no other craters near the hanger which means only 1 missile aimed at the hanger and it hit. If you throw darts at the board and if one lands dead center while the rest are not on the board, it means you aimed for other targets, you didn't miss the board.

Tactically you're likely looking at Iran mixing old missiles with new using old as decoys, there are missiles that are there to saturate air defences, and there are missiles that are intended to hit, and the target intended to hit were hit. Strategically it's common sense for Iran to save their newer missiles for actual war.

Also $3 million is how much a small orbital rocket cost, you're grossly over-estimating how much Iranian missiles cost, which I'm guessing you just made up on the spot.

Oh last thing I'm old enough to remember back in 2020 Trump stating on air all Iranian missiles missed their target, a few hours before high res photos of the US base came out and holes were dead centre on almost all buildings.

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Zichan said:

This is what I observed. The important part is that you claimed ”pinpoint accuracy” but the evidence refutes you. I added an additional impact point, that I suspect was patched up. We could argue whether the hits on the taxiways were intentional or not.

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iBBz said:

Could one argue that the missiles would have been loaded up with cluster munitions if the Iranians wanted to do even more damage, but chose not to intentionally?

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tankphobia said:

Idk why you guys are expecting American companies to provide high res image of Israeli airbases post strike to perform BDA. The presence or lack of them doesn't necessarily prove anything.

It's like expecting Russia to post pictures of their ammunition storage after a Ukranian UAV strike. Why would they do that? To stroke egos? The people that need to know will know, why would they willingly give out information about military facilities.

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Zichan said:

We weren’t talking about CEP until you just brought it into discussion. Unless we know what the target was for each missile, it’s difficult to say much about their CEP.

There is a crater very close to the hangar that was hit, a close miss. Take a better look. There is a 45m long 4 engine tanker in the photo for reference.

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iBBz said:

Could one argue that the missiles would have been loaded up with cluster munitions if the Iranians wanted to do even more damage, but chose not to intentionally?

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iewgnem said:

Do you know the probability of impacting down the centre of taxi-ways with CEP any larger than 5m?
There are actually more photos out including another destroyed building, a hole in one of the F-35 shelter roof and two craters right outside F-35 shelters at distance of around 5m.
Accuracy is clearly not an issue, if there are issues it's small warhead size, which would be a tactical / cost decision where larger numbers of smaller warheads make it harder to intercept for the same cost.

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