Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

enroger said:

We did not see 32 impact sites at all, that photo is so low-resed I don't even know how anyone can spot any hits or craters. The only high-resed photo we saw was that one hanger hit

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You called that hit “pinpoint accuracy”. Yet in the same photo, we saw an impact strike that missed a hangar. 50% hit rate is not “pinpoint accuracy”.

Actually, that same source showed another 2 impacts that hit nothing of value, so it was more like 25% hit rate just based on visually verifiable data that covered a small fraction of the airbase. Is that considered good?

Zichan said:

You called that hit “pinpoint accuracy”. Yet in the same photo, we saw an impact strike that missed a hangar. 50% hit rate is not “pinpoint accuracy”.

Actually, that same source showed another 2 impacts that hit nothing of value, so it was more like 25% hit rate just based on visually verifiable data that covered a small fraction of the airbase. Is that considered good?

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You're trying to prove Iranian missiles are not accurate using extremely selective evidence provided by the west and Israel.
It's not that complicated, in 2020 high res photo of the entire US base was released and people can count for themselves. They can simply release the same here, but they're not, which is a data point in itself.
More importantly direct hit on hangers mathematically proved accuracy is meter grade, you can argue not all missiles have the same accuracy but the fact is there are missiles with that accuracy.

iewgnem said:

More importantly direct hit on hangers mathematically proved accuracy is meter grade, you can argue not all missiles have the same accuracy but the fact is there are missiles with that accuracy.

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No it doesn’t. There is no reason to assume anything special about the one that hit the hangar. Mathematically, you take the number of hits and divide by the number of impact sites on target. That’s your first order hit rate.

I’m just working with what is available and will adjust my conclusions as additional data comes in. 1 or 2 hits out of 32 for $3 million per missile is not particularly effective against that military target.

But as I said before, they could inflict serious damage if aimed at a large industrial target.

Zichan said:

You called that hit “pinpoint accuracy”. Yet in the same photo, we saw an impact strike that missed a hangar. 50% hit rate is not “pinpoint accuracy”.

Actually, that same source showed another 2 impacts that hit nothing of value, so it was more like 25% hit rate just based on visually verifiable data that covered a small fraction of the airbase. Is that considered good?

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I only spotted two impacts in that high res photo we saw, one on the hanger, one on the tarmac, the one landed on the tarmac I don't know if they're targeting the tarmac or were they aiming for something else and missed.

And our discussion is getting pointless already, what's the matter if the hit rate is what 50% or 25%? The fact is they destroyed what they wanted to destroy, that they need to spend 2 times or 3 times the number of munitions to accomplish it is just pure academic.

You can argue lower accuracy means lower strike efficiency sure, but you cannot argue it is ineffective can you? You still don't realize your position is entirely untenable

Zichan said:

No it doesn’t. There is no reason to assume anything special about the one that hit the hangar. Mathematically, you take the number of hits and divide by the number of impact sites on target. That’s your first order hit rate.

I’m just working with what is available and will adjust my conclusions as additional data comes in. 1 or 2 hits out of 32 for $3 million per missile is not particularly effective against that military target.

But as I said before, they could inflict serious damage if aimed at a large industrial target.

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That's not how CEP works, a CEP of say 50 meters with uniform distribution for simplicity would result in only 1 in 2500 chance of hitting a 1 meter target with the other 249 landing near but not centered on the target, clearly there are no other craters near the hanger which means only 1 missile aimed at the hanger and it hit. If you throw darts at the board and if one lands dead center while the rest are not on the board, it means you aimed for other targets, you didn't miss the board.

Tactically you're likely looking at Iran mixing old missiles with new using old as decoys, there are missiles that are there to saturate air defences, and there are missiles that are intended to hit, and the target intended to hit were hit. Strategically it's common sense for Iran to save their newer missiles for actual war.

Also $3 million is how much a small orbital rocket cost, you're grossly over-estimating how much Iranian missiles cost, which I'm guessing you just made up on the spot.

Oh last thing I'm old enough to remember back in 2020 Trump stating on air all Iranian missiles missed their target, a few hours before high res photos of the US base came out and holes were dead centre on almost all buildings.

CrazyHorse said:

Gotta love a 23 year old captain

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He bought a levelled up account.

iewgnem said:

That's not how CEP works, a CEP of say 50 meters with uniform distribution for simplicity would result in only 1 in 2500 chance of hitting a 1 meter target with the other 249 landing near but not centered on the target, clearly there are no other craters near the hanger which means only 1 missile aimed at the hanger and it hit. If you throw darts at the board and if one lands dead center while the rest are not on the board, it means you aimed for other targets, you didn't miss the board.

Tactically you're likely looking at Iran mixing old missiles with new using old as decoys, there are missiles that are there to saturate air defences, and there are missiles that are intended to hit, and the target intended to hit were hit. Strategically it's common sense for Iran to save their newer missiles for actual war.

Also $3 million is how much a small orbital rocket cost, you're grossly over-estimating how much Iranian missiles cost, which I'm guessing you just made up on the spot.

Oh last thing I'm old enough to remember back in 2020 Trump stating on air all Iranian missiles missed their target, a few hours before high res photos of the US base came out and holes were dead centre on almost all buildings.

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I think it's a bit cheaper than 3 million $ but not by much. Maybe 1-2 million $.

3 million is about DF17 cost. But consider that Iran has to import some of its components and doesn't have the same economy of scale as China. It makes sense than an Iranian DF16 equivalent would be more expensive than the actual Df16.

IDF is now blowing up houses in Lebanon, just like they do in Gaza and the West Bank.


Israel dropped 73 tons of explosives on a Hezbollah intelligence headquarters in a Beirut suburb where Nasrallah's successor could be located, Ynet reports.


Ayatollah Khamenei, leader of the Islamic Revolution:
- What we did was the minimum punishment for the Zionists; we will respond harshly to any aggression.
- We must not rush; any situation must be carefully studied before reacting.
- The Al-Aqsa storm is a legitimate reaction of the Palestinians, every rocket fired at the Zionist regime is a service to the entire region, the martyr Nasrallah was at the forefront of the just struggle.
- The dreams of the Zionists and Americans are nothing more than empty illusions, this harmful tree will be uprooted from our region.
- To Hamas and Hezbollah: continue the fight and do not despair.
- The jihad of the Palestinians and Lebanese has set the Zionist regime back 70 years.
- The countries of the region strive for peace and tranquility, the only problem is foreign intervention.


Imam Khamenei addressing the Friday prayers in Tehran today: The enemy of the Iranian nation is the same as the enemy of the Iraqi nation, the same as the enemy of the Lebanese nation, the same as the enemy of the Egyptian nation; the enemy of all of us is one.


Weapons captured by Israeli Forces in Lebanon.


Despite the Israeli ban, a short time ago an Iranian government plane landed at the airport in Beirut with the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Arakji, as well as "Iranian medical aid" on board.


More bombings on civilian areas in Beirut.

enroger said:

I only spotted two impacts in that high res photo we saw, one on the hanger, one on the tarmac, the one landed on the tarmac I don't know if they're targeting the tarmac or were they aiming for something else and missed.

And our discussion is getting pointless already, what's the matter if the hit rate is what 50% or 25%? The fact is they destroyed what they wanted to destroy, that they need to spend 2 times or 3 times the number of munitions to accomplish it is just pure academic.

You can argue lower accuracy means lower strike efficiency sure, but you cannot argue it is ineffective can you? You still don't realize your position is entirely untenable

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This is what I observed. The important part is that you claimed ”pinpoint accuracy” but the evidence refutes you. I added an additional impact point, that I suspect was patched up. We could argue whether the hits on the taxiways were intentional or not.

An IRGC official confirms if Israel strikes Iran that they’ll retaliate by destroying Israel’s critical energy infrastructure. This includes refineries, powerplants and gas fields. The good news they won’t strike the energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf this collapsing the global economy. They probably will go to collapse already Israel’s declining economy.