#8 is not a heavy (400-500) kg warhead. We know what 500 kg warheads look like when somewhere got Kalibrated.
Note the walls at the back of the room that are unscathed. Typical length of a class/conference room is ~10 m.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
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Note the walls at the back of the room that are unscathed. Typical length of a class/conference room is ~10 m.
Has Iran actually succeeded in establishing deterrence with this sort of attack?
The first time it did an orchestrated response was for the assassination of Soleimani.
The second time was in response to the bombing of its embassy in Syria, killing two of its generals.
The third time, this time, was in response to the assassination of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.
From an outsider’s perspective, it doesn’t look like Iran’s actually deterring anything. Rather, it looks like it’s a show for domestic and regional consumption.
Maybe this time will be different, but we already have Israel swearing revenge, so I doubt it.
The first time it did an orchestrated response was for the assassination of Soleimani.
The second time was in response to the bombing of its embassy in Syria, killing two of its generals.
The third time, this time, was in response to the assassination of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.
From an outsider’s perspective, it doesn’t look like Iran’s actually deterring anything. Rather, it looks like it’s a show for domestic and regional consumption.
Maybe this time will be different, but we already have Israel swearing revenge, so I doubt it.
There are no reasons for having this conclusion, particularly when it seems that there is a high chance of a series of mutual attacks happening.
Former Prime Minister. He is in glee right now
That is my conclusion. Iran’s rhetoric signals a position of deterrence and escalate-to-deescalate. But it doesn’t look like that’s actually deterring, so there’s a reasonable chance of escalation with more attacks.
If Iran wanted deterrence, it seems it needed to inflict a higher cost, or credibly signal a willingness to do so.
On the other hand if it’s locked into a chain of escalation, then Iran have been better off going all-in at the outset, like Israel has on Hezbollah.
US officials quietly backed Israel’s military push against Hezbollah
The officials urged caution and stressed the need for diplomacy. But the timing was right for such a military shift, they concluded.
US presidents: Pivot to Asia
Neocons: Hold my beer
TBH, Netanyahu is the most worthy person to be anointed saint by Cnet. He made sure the US forces stay locked in the Middle east for over a quarter of a century.
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So after few hours since iran used BM against Israel what did I learn... Ballistic Missiles suck when it comes to hitting target and doing damage. They tried going after Mossad HQ and it is still standing. You know what is extremely more effective in getting results... aircraft carrying 1000, 2000, 3000 or 5000lbs JDAM or bunker buster. They went after airbases and they weren't even knocked out of operations now it is Israel's turn and we're going to see the difference.
Conventional BM don't cut it.
Conventional BM don't cut it.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
It could be that this attack was intentionally designed to hit low-value targets and use older missiles to minimize casualties whilst simultaneously giving the perception of a massive, well-coordinated attack on the homeland of the perceived enemy. It would be an opportunity for both sides to de-escalate without either side losing face. I wouldn't be surprised if the Iranian, Israeli, and US governments had jointly discussed and greenlighted this operation through their backchannels prior to its execution.
A more extravagant repeat of January 2020 and April 2024, if you will.
A more extravagant repeat of January 2020 and April 2024, if you will.
Iran and US both want to deescalate, not Israel.