Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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So after few hours since iran used BM against Israel what did I learn... Ballistic Missiles suck when it comes to hitting target and doing damage. They tried going after Mossad HQ and it is still standing. You know what is extremely more effective in getting results... aircraft carrying 1000, 2000, 3000 or 5000lbs JDAM or bunker buster. They went after airbases and they weren't even knocked out of operations now it is Israel's turn and we're going to see the difference.

Conventional BM don't cut it.

That sort of generalization is simplistic and flawed.

The effectiveness of any sort of strike system whether it's ballistic missiles or manned strike aircraft entirely depends on the advancement of your munitions, your supporting ISR, EW, BDA, and the advancement and scale of defenses that the adversary can put up.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Iran and US both want to deescalate, not Israel.

Even if their inherent desire is to capitalize on the opportunity to cut the head off the snake, per se, their leadership must've realized by now that the economic and societal implications of an all-out war with Iran + Hezbollah + Hamas might not justify the ends.

We will see how Israel responds.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
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So after few hours since iran used BM against Israel what did I learn... Ballistic Missiles suck when it comes to hitting target and doing damage. They tried going after Mossad HQ and it is still standing. You know what is extremely more effective in getting results... aircraft carrying 1000, 2000, 3000 or 5000lbs JDAM or bunker buster. They went after airbases and they weren't even knocked out of operations now it is Israel's turn and we're going to see the difference.

Conventional BM don't cut it.

The difference is having powerful Air defense. If you have good air defense, then Planes with JDAM will be shot down before they even get to strike. If Hezbollah had Air defense then Israel wouldn't be able to do air strikes with impunity. This is the key difference between powerful countries versus insurgency groups. Houthis, Hamas or Hezbollah none of them have air defense network. Iran on the other hand does have air defense, although its kinda weak and not as good as whatever Russia, China or even Israel has.

Against powerful Air defense, missiles are the only safe and effective option.
 

Kejora

Junior Member
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That sort of generalization is simplistic and flawed.

The effectiveness of any sort of strike system whether it's ballistic missiles or manned strike aircraft entirely depends on the advancement of your munitions, your supporting ISR, EW, BDA, and the advancement and scale of defenses that the adversary can put up.
This shows that Iran still lack the ISR capability of Russia and China. In Ukraine, Russia has managed to strike individual buildings and vehicles and even trains with Iskander and Kinzhal.
 

Blitzo

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This shows that Iran still lack the ISR capability of Russia and China. In Ukraine, Russia has managed to strike individual buildings and vehicles and even trains with Iskander and Kinzhal.

That's also a simplification.

IMO there is a whole list of differences that are all worthy of their own effortpost:
- advancement of munitions (including geometry, guidance, maneuverability)
- ISR/BDA capability
- supporting EW/SEAD/DEAD
- fixed wing aircraft support
- Israeli defenses and sophistication
- US/allied defenses and sophisticaiton
 

Michael90

Junior Member
Registered Member
Apparently Israel finds out that doing battle with Iran is a whole different ball game as compare to fighting Gazans with IEDs and small arms and bottle rockets.
Of course any state to state or country to country warfare is different from fighting an unconventional warfare. In fact for most countries they will rather fight a conventional warfare with another country, since its more of a direct conflict with clear adversaries and even rules of war. Meanwhile fighting an unconventional or guerrila war/militias who often blend in with civilian population and don't fight openly against their adversary is even more complex/time consuming and draining and you get to often even kill far more civilians and those not part of the fighting than you do with the real fighters. Look at the US against the Saddam Hussein military which was a conventional warfare and open, compared to what they faced fighting the many shia militias and terror groups that later popped up in Iraq after the Iraqi army was defeated. The US got bogged down so much since this enemies were fighting an unconventional war and hiding among the populace using hit and run tactics, suicide bombings, IEDs, and disappearing into the population after attacks. So makes such a war much more difficult and complex especially if you are trying to observe some sort of rules of war which foesnt work with such an opponent. The best way to deal with such an unconventional enemy is to do what Russia did in Syria and Chechenya I.e wipe out any area or place this militants/enemies might be hiding irregardless of civilians casualties. "Better to kill a hundred innocent people than let one truly guilty person go free," as the saying goes.
This type.of war is more.messy than a conventional one.

So I think Israel will actually prefer a country to country one like the ones they have fought with Arab countries in the past.
 
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enroger

Junior Member
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Of course any state to state or country to country warfare is different from fighting an unconventional warfare. In fact for most countries they will rather fight a conventional warfare with another country, since its more of a direct conflict with clear adversaries and even rules of war. Meanwhile fighting an unconventional or guerrila war/militias who often blend in with civilian population and don't fight openly against their adversary is even more complex/time consuming and draining and you get to often even kill far more civilians and those not part of the fighting than you do with the real fighters.
So I think Israel will actually prefer a country to country one like the ones they have fought with Arab countries in the past.

Well then, perhaps Israel should let Palestine form a government and let them have an army so they can fight a conventional war with Israel because bombing hospitals and refugee camps is so so tiring eh?
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Not really. That's how it should be normally if this region or conflict was like others I.e a normal one. Lol Bit it's everything except that.
So even if Iranian missiles hasn't killed any Israeli whatsoever it will still be seen or used by Iran for good optics to show they retaliated at least which is something they absolutely needed to reassure their proxies in the region and maintain some sort of legitimacy as the leader and God Father of the resistance acts forces in the region. Just like the earlier strike where Iran had to show they did something(even though it was later revealed they warned their adversary days before they launched the missiles ) . It still created some form of win for Iran in the eyes of her supporters. Casualties or damage is secondary or even irrelevant what they want is to show they are not powerless .
For Israel it would actually be a good thing if Iran can somehow launch an even bigger assault against Israel, since this will justify Israel using full force and fight Iran thereby silence all the critics of this conflict been merely a strong Israel bullying a weak defenceless Palestine and be more of a real country to country warfare and thereby be less controversial and thereby draw the US into the war to support Israel. This is actually what Israel wants I.e A full Iranian direct involvement against Israel. Not through proxies only which is more difficult and complex to fight since Iran has plausible deniability when using her many proxies in the region.
Not really what? I really didn't mean look good to Iranians because Iranians or those groups fighting Israel now because they have an extremely low threshold for calling something a success. Iran's supreme leader called Hezbollah the winner for getting its entire leadership whacked. So for them, yeah, if missiles were launched and any hit the ground in Israel, they'll all cheer like a bunch of monkeys but to those who are watching afar, Iran's missile strike would be an expensive nothing burger if it didn't 1. kill important Israeli officials and/or 2. destroy very expensive equipment like F-35. So far, I'm not hearing any reports of casualties from Israel and no reliable rumors even of F-35 being destroyed. It might look good to those whom are so very accustimed to total defeat by Israel but so me, I'm not seeing anything worth a shit in this missile strike yet.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
So after few hours since iran used BM against Israel what did I learn... Ballistic Missiles suck when it comes to hitting target and doing damage. They tried going after Mossad HQ and it is still standing. You know what is extremely more effective in getting results... aircraft carrying 1000, 2000, 3000 or 5000lbs JDAM or bunker buster. They went after airbases and they weren't even knocked out of operations now it is Israel's turn and we're going to see the difference.

Conventional BM don't cut it.

Well Iranian BM is suck, the accuracy is way way off. Would be totally different if it was Chinese or American
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well Iranian BM is suck, the accuracy is way way off. Would be totally different if it was Chinese or American

Well, their retaliation strike against US base back in 2020 had decent accuracy I remember. Not sure if they used GPS or inertial guidance, GPS is untrustworthy, Beidou and Glonnass can be jammed which leaves inertial guidance that may or may not suck.

But yeah missing that Mossad base is a huge L, if they intentionally missed it then they are pussies, if they unintentionally missed it then their missile sucked
 
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