Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Zichan

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Closer look from elevated angle at Nevatim airbase as it got pounded
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Different upclose angle (3rd video)
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More angles
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Saturation launch from Iran!!
First time I've seen such a thing
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Gas installation, Ashkelon
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I saw a handful interceptions max, not 24, 36 or 48.

It is not possible to predict the trajectory of a ballistic missile that can alter its flight path, a tech Iranis have possessed since the 1990s. American and Israeli BMD were built for non-maneuvrable Scud-type rockets that fly in straight, predictable arcs at low speeds. We know what Israel's defence looks like when Hezbollah or Palestine fires - interceptor rockets taking off enmasse - that was totally missing here and in the previous Irani strike.
You do realize that Arrow missiles will make intercepts outside the atmosphere? Those are unlikely to have been caught on camera, especially given that Arrow 3 has a range of over 2000km.

What we see on the videos are likely David Sling intercepts. If you pay close attention, you can observe that a good number of the missiles are falling apart as they are descending, having been hit before the camera panned to them.

Iran gave official warning to the foreign government(s); it's up to the latter how they wish to relay it domestically. But we know atleast it was presented in the media prior to the attack. If civilian airline operators choose to continue operations in the zone, despite warnings, it is entirely their own fault should they win the Darwin Award by chance. It's not a testament to technology but rather to Irani warnings which airliners heeded and cleared the way which is SOP around the world everywhere.
 
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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Because many of the videos show different angles of the same attack on Nevatim airbase that received around 20 hits. I’m not saying there couldn’t be more, but that’s what I saw.

I didn’t see evidence of cluster warheads. Can you provide an example?
There is no evidence that these are different angles. You said you only saw 30 hits but in only one video there were more than 25 hits, the rest like in Tel Aviv there were clearly more than 10. Either you didn't see them or you don't want to accept reality. Besides, that's not even the real issue here, because most of the videos we saw were of the fragmentation warheads that each ballistic missile launched can carry, only a few videos were of single warhead missile hits. The other thing is that we saw many, many more hits than interceptions.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
You do realize that Arrow missiles will make intercepts outside the atmosphere? Those are unlikely to have been caught on camera, especially given that Arrow 3 has a range of over 2000km.

What we see on the videos are likely David Sling intercepts. If you pay close attention, you can observe that a good number of the missiles are falling apart as they are descending, having been hit before the camera panned to them.
Arrow 2 is an endoatmospheric interceptor.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is no evidence that these are different angles. You said you only saw 30 hits but in only one video there were more than 25 hits, the rest like in Tel Aviv there were clearly more than 10. Either you didn't see them or you don't want to accept reality. Besides, that's not even the real issue here, because most of the videos we saw were of the fragmentation warheads that each ballistic missile launched can carry, only a few videos were of single warhead missile hits. The other thing is that we saw many, many more hits than interceptions.
Aren’t you arguing against yourself by claiming those were not unitary warheads? By that logic we can divide the number of hits to arrive at a much lower number of missiles that got through.
 

gpt

Junior Member
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It is not possible to predict the trajectory of a ballistic missile that can alter its flight path
US provides a lot of the kill chain for Israeli BMD. SBIRS detects the launch of a missile and determine its type and likely destination. That info cues a ground based radar (Green Pine, AN-TPY2) that tracks it, a missile defense interceptor is then launched to kill it.
This system is quite effective (China's HQ-19 and DN-3 uses similar principles). it's just the interceptors are probably 10x the cost of the missiles. You'd be surprised at the ballistic missile production of countries like DPRK and Iran. They sent Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles and have enough to do this.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Aren’t you arguing against yourself by claiming those were not unitary warheads? By that logic we can divide the number of hits to arrive at a much lower number of missiles that got through.
Exactly. That's the point. But contrary to what Israel claims, the IRGC said it only fired 100 missiles. Who are you going to trust? How does that number make your interception assessment? Furthermore, the lack of evidence of many interceptions (which could have occurred) also does not mean that most or all of the missiles penetrated Israel, so the opposite is true.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
You do realize that Arrow missiles will make intercepts outside the atmosphere? Those are unlikely to have been caught on camera, especially given that Arrow 3 has a range of over 2000km.
In other words, no proof of intercepts.

What we see on the videos are likely David Sling intercepts. If you pay close attention, you can observe that a good number of the missiles are falling apart as they are descending, having been hit before the camera panned to them.
I cannot see a good number falling apart. Instead, I see a good number hitting the ground after a fiery re-entry into the atmosphere.

The guy that filmed the video claimed they were flying to Dubai:
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Amsterdam to Dubai, filmed over Iran, the standard route. And whose fault is that? Carriers are taking the alternate route over KSA-Egypt-Med. I guess the American-Israeli tech isn't THAT reliable to fly through a warzone.
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US provides a lot of the kill chain for Israeli BMD. SBIRS detects the launch of a missile and determine its type and likely destination. That info cues a ground based radar (Green Pine, AN-TPY2) that tracks it, a missile defense interceptor is then launched to kill it.
This system is quite effective (China's HQ-19 and DN-3 uses similar principles). it's just the interceptors are probably 10x the cost of the missiles. You'd be surprised at the ballistic missile production of countries like DPRK and Iran. They sent Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles and have enough to do this.
How is the target being tracked? It has negligible emissions of it's own including the heat signature, the source of which is on the aft end (not facing the tracker and blocked by the body).

TPY-2 and THAAD are deployed at Nevatim AB since 2019.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Got caught off guard or ineffective...? Either way they're going to lie because the fact is a whole lot of missiles got through. You can read a lot of things. If the US was there to help intercept, how come so many got through? Before, other countries helped intercept. Where were they? Maybe because they weren't a bunch of drones this time. Or maybe they saw Israel crossed the line and didn't get involved this time. If the Arrow was involved, did it work or they didn't have enough? All it says is Iran needs more of these missiles.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
In other words, no proof of intercepts.


I cannot see a good number falling apart. Instead, I see a good number hitting the ground after a fiery re-entry into the atmosphere.


Amsterdam to Dubai, filmed over Iran, the standard route. And whose fault is that? Carriers are taking the alternate route over KSA-Egypt-Med. I guess the American-Israeli tech isn't THAT reliable to fly through a warzone.
View attachment 136770
The fact that I counted no more than 30 impacts tells me that the intercept rate was not too shabby.
How is the target being tracked? It has negligible emissions of it's own including the heat signature, the source of which is on the aft end (not facing the tracker and blocked by the body).

TPY-2 and THAAD are deployed at Nevatim AB since 2019.
It leaves a huge heat plume behind it.

AN/TPY-2 can track the missiles from 2000km away. AEGIS BMD radars likewise.
 
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