Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Michael90 said:

Dude this was a very successful military and intelligence operation. If any country did this then we will still recognise such a feat.

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Not really, no. It is the kind of trick you can only pull once and has far ranging ramifications outside of the war including people side eyeing anything coming from or through the west, for limited strategic gains.

Then there is reputational hit for a country already quite disliked for the mass murder of civilians as it was.

Michael90 said:

As much as we might hate Israel and their policies, we have to admit they have one of the best intelligence/secret service/militaries im the world

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Considering how they failed to spot Oct 7 and how they have relied on badly made up evidence and claims, thats debatable. They are good at having and training deathsquads, but thats about it at this point.

Even their reputation as an Army is questionable, seeing how they fight no differently than the Saudis or any other badly trained Arab army, relying on air power and nothing else.

Israel wants a regional war because the current war of attrition is too much for them. They believe that in a regional war the US can save them and defeat Iran. The axis of resistance said right from jump that they are waging a war of attrition to exhaust Israel militarily,economically and politically. Yeah Israel can kill as much Hezbollah commanders as they want but it’s a failing strategy. Hezbollah already has a hierarchical structure in place to replace those that were lost. Israel for example has killed Hamas leaders for years but did that prevent the humiliation of October 7th? No it did not. All it does is kill older moderate leaders that get replaced by more younger radical and militant leaders.

They also have a force of 100k men. They have militant allies like the Amal movement,Hamas and PIJ branches in Lebanon. And not to mention the rest of the axis of resistance groups are gathering forces in Syria. And I would imagine just like Hamas,Hezbollah has had a large increase of new recruits. Hezbollah has been playing this smart that the majority of Lebanese society with the exception of the Zionist Maronites. So Israel’s only hope is a Great War in the Mideast. Because at the current trajectory they face internal collapse. The military is overstretched,exhausted and dealing with low morale. Manpower shortages as men are refusing to be re drafted out of fear of entering the Gaza morass. Munitions and spare parts are in low supply. Their economy is in an unprecedented crisis. Their society is under stress with internal strife. They are reviled worldwide. Only thing that’s keeping them going is unyielding support from Western governments. That’s not a sustainable long term solution.

sheogorath said:

Even their reputation as an Army is questionable, seeing how they fight no differently than the Saudis or any other badly trained Arab army, relying on air power and nothing else.

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Middle East is sorta a region with major military power vacuum. You have absolute jokers like Saudi running around where a couple of laser CIWS sales can tip the balance of their air defense war. And then Syria, Egypt and Iraq that are all running 0 air defense builds.

Iran and Israel are the absolute god tiers of the region because they make a minimum of local equipment and have some fancy imported toys.

The much hyped Iranian intelligence service is literally just taking random Muslims who already hate the west and then organizing them to zerg rush Israel/western bases. They're also not guarding the interiors of Iran or finding US spies.

Meanwhile Israel intelligence service is basically Al qaida but instead of attacking the west, it's attacking Muslims. Showing shocked pikachu face after they find out that killing Muslim civilians did in fact NOT result in the Islamic world surrendering to their political demands, just like it didn't work the other 34 times they've tried it. Just like their Iranian brothers, they're also allergic to guarding their interior.

In such an environment, what could be a great play is inserting an adult into the room who can slowly mediate away the disputes between all partners, using their stronger intelligence/military/economic power to cow individual factions. Imho Russia is being pitted for this role in the west levant, while China is already trying to unravel some of the clownery between Saudi and Iran.