Israel wants a regional war because the current war of attrition is too much for them. They believe that in a regional war the US can save them and defeat Iran.
The war and possible expansion of the conflict from local to regional scale is caused
exclusively by Israel's internal politics, and more specificially by the impending conviction of Netanyahu. Netanyahu banks on a large war as it allows him to redefine political alliances and narratives. That's why Iran is so reluctant to get involved. Every Iranian proxy and ally in this conflict did the wrong thing by becoming involved because it gave Netanyahu half a victory already.
Pay attention to numbers:
The Israeli political crisis begins in early 2019 when an early Knesset election is called brought about by formal corruption charges against Netanyahu and a bill forcing national service for ultra-orthodox Jews, which threatened crucial Shas and UTJ votes. Centrist liberal party (aflluent middle-class voters) Yesh Atid joins Benny Gantz's party as a Blue and White coalition (centrist, left-leaning). In the
first election in April 2019 Likud and Blue&White both gain 35 seats which leads to a stalemate and a
second election in September 2019 where Blue&White win 33 seats to Likud's 32. This allows Gantz to form a government but he is unable to do so due to the share of far-right and religious parties. Likud manages to form a broad coalition and Netanyahu remains in power but with a very volatile support. This naturally leads to a
third election in March 2020 which is won by Likud with 36 votes to B&W 33. Again a stable coalition is impossible but Likud as the winner retains the privilege for government forming and this enables Likud to enter into coalition with Blue&White. That is also unstable and a f
ourth election in March 2021 brings a temporary change of pace. Likud wins with 30 seats but this is their lowest result yet and refusal to form a coalition from other parties causes Likud to fail. The government is then formed by very unlikely allies in liberal centrists Yesh Atid (Lapid) and radical right Yamina (Bennet). They alternate as prime minister but their political positions are too far apart and the coalition fails leading to a
fifth election in November 2022.
Five inconclusive elections in four years is one more than Germany during Hitler's rise to power (1930-33).
Israeli politics mirrors American pathology of two centrist parties vying for radical support to stay in power although the difference between Israel and US is that in the US that destructive dynamic is imposed on a centrist society by a broken political system while Israeli political system is fairly representative but the society is broken beyond repair.
Historical context in my post from 12 Oct 2023 on Israel's political history.
Hope not... the US would go full yolo. That conflict is sad enough like it is. But parking all these carrier fleet there is just asking for that. Hamas gone yolo because of circumstances. USA has anything to loose if a Nimitz aka US territory get attacked by a non state. This is so meta lol
www.sinodefenceforum.com
Note the number of seats and the relatively weak position of the "coalition builder" winner party.
| govt. threshold =61 | Apr 2019 election | Sept 2019 election | Mar 2020 election | Mar 2021 election | Nov 2022 election | Sept 2022 poll |
| Likud | 35 | 32 | 36 | 30 | 32 | 25-31 (avg 28) |
| main opponent | 35 | 33 | 33 | 17 | 24 | 28-31 (avg 29,5) |
Haredi parties Shas (Sephardi) and UTJ (Ashkenazi) maintain a stable 16 seats from 2019 to 2022 and gain 2 more to 18 in 2022. The Zionist (secular) far right begins at low 5-6 seats due to many parties not crossing the 3,25% threshold. Then it improves to 18 between three parties in 2021 and 14 in 2022. Haredi/ far right and green/soc-dem/Arab are mutually exclusive meaning that of the two centrist blocs only Likud maintains coalition ability due to their willingness to enter into agreements with Haredi and far right parties as - paradoxically - the
moderating factor. Contrary to popular perception Likud is not a radical party, they are simply so corrupt as to need to stay in power to avoid prosecution at all cost.
Now note how in the context of the previous four years and five elections the polling numbers of Likud reflect their vulnerability to another collapse of coalition government.
When the decision to allow an attack is likely made in summer of 2023 Likud polling takes them below 30 seats while National Unity (Benny Gantz) is on a growing trend toward 30. With National Unity gaining 28 seats and Yesh Atid gaining 17 they need only 16 votes to form a relatively stable coalition with support of moderate leftist parties and Beiteinu (Lieberman) that would be brought together by their mutual
strategic goals of purging Netanyahu and weakening political gains by radical zionist right. While the coalition would be marginal it would not be volatile because literally everyone who isn't in Netanyahu's clique wants to get rid of Netanyahu. The problem has been entirely the inability of the Israeli political system to put Likud out of power for sufficiently long so as to commit to necessary legal action.
And that's why Netanyahu allowed the attack to happen. He simply had no other option to gain sufficient support to not be blackmailed by insane right of Smotrich and Ben Gvir. And pay attention that his gamble paid off - after Gantz discredited himself by participation in Netanyahu's deliberately incompetent (so as to blame failures on coalition partners to tank their numbers) war cabinet National Unity fell in the polls below Likud which guarantees that Likud has first go at forming of government.
Now Netanyahu is pushing for a broader conflict because he is trying to partly address the inevitable fallout of the year of poorly managed war and partly to force a shift in perception in the US which will benefit Netanyahu's allies and benefactors - US Republicans. It is difficult to argue which is more important to Likud. I would argue that the latter because the last time Democrats held the trifecta (2008-2010) they were seen as generally favourable to Likud and Netanyahu, which is no longer the case after Donald Trump's presidency.
Netanyahu is desperate and cornered but he is an extremely skillfull, ruthless and utterly shameless political operative which is why he is winning the battle so far.
And this is why Iran is waiting this one out. Why help your enemy? Winning wars is about winning wars, not battles.
So Israel’s only hope is a Great War in the Mideast. Because at the current trajectory they face internal collapse. [...]
Israel has endured much worse in the past and they are in a significantly better position than in 1960s or 70s.
Israel could invade Lebanon, reoccupy territory south of Litani river, and decisively cripple Hezbollah for the next 5-10 years if Hezbollah reacted incorrectly to the latest provocations i.e. attacked Israel openly. Hezbollah prepared for defensive warfare, they won't be able to recapture lost territory. IDF can defend well so they need to quickly capture territory and establish forward defenses for prolonged conflict. It's not easy but it
can be done.
And here we arrive at the controversial means with which Israel has attacked Hezbollah - they weren't smart, they were reckless and deliberatively provocative because the intention is to force Hezbollah into making the first move so as to not be viewed in US as the aggressor.
The operation wasn't intended to cripple Hebollah. It was an operation prepared for precisely this type of contingency where Israel needs an excuse to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon on its own terms.
Most importantly
if IDF captures water sources they gain the upper hand in the war of attrition. ME is extremely water-stressed. If you control water you dictate terms including ceasefire or peace terms.
If Iran is on the verge of nuclear deterrence they won't care about losing much of Hezbollah either because Hezbollah has always been the less preferable deterrence option. Hezbollah being a Shia organisation has literally nowhere else to turn for support. Iran can use them as expendable pawns at will and has done so on numerous occasions. The current president of Iran (Pezeshkian) will provide a convenient scapegoat for any failures while moderating popular uproar.
Ideology is for people who need to be told what to think. Choices of those people are the object of politics. The subject of politics are the choices of people who can think for themselves. Most people have it backwards which is precisely why they have to be told what to think.
