Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

obj 705A said:

I hear analysts all the time talking about how Hezbolah is much more capable than Hamas yet what we have seen in the past few days contradicts that.

Hezbolah supposedly has 60k militants in addition to ATGMs & a large stockpile of long range missiles while Hamas has 30k militants and a far much smaller stockpile of primitive rockets and depends mainly on primitive homemade explosives that have to be put manualy by Hamas militants on IDF tanks.

yet within a few days Hezbolah suffered thousands of casualties including a significant number who lost their eyesight and Israel has been constantly taking out senior Hezbolah leaderships.

Hamas has demonstarted that they are far much more professional than Hezbolah. actually Hezbolah look like a bunch of amateurs when compared to Hamas. Hezbolah is basicaly in a state of war with Israel yet these senior leaderhips were all gathering in one building for a meating as if they are going to a tea party? are you serious? Hezbolah does have tunnels. all meatings should be in the tunnels.

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Hamas couldn't defend their territory. Hezbollah actually managed to stop the invasion of militant Jews in 2006. Of course they're going to take damage from airstrikes and other attacks. But if they try to invade Lebanon again, then we can assess the strength of Hezbollah.

Right now, the Jewish state looks like a terrorist state to everyone in the global south and everyone will agree that they're the aggressor. That makes direct American involvement less likely and gives Hezbollah and its supporters the moral high ground. Some losses today don't really matter, if they're achieved using crimes against humanity. It will only lead to more volunteers from Syria and Iraq arriving. It's quite remarkable that the Lebanese government is actually condemning the attacks, they might even help Hezbollah defend their country

These attacks are comparable to the small attacks Russia/DPR/LPR did just before the Ukraine war started. Ukraine didn't invade Russia or attack its cities in response, they didn't take the bait but waited for Russia to go in. This must be the Lebanese approach too

FriedButter said:

Israel wants a wider war but the other side is asking themselves if and why they should give them what they want. They committed a big war crime provocation but hasn't done anything big since. 4 days later and Lebanon hasn’t been invaded. Any communication chaos caused by now would be closed or rapidly closing. So it points to a question of why did they reveal a capability for no apparent gain.

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They have to convince the domestic population that everything is under control (which it's not). Those Israelis who evacuated the north will be straining local governments elsewhere in the country. Israel has to "appear" safe and secure - this is doable on the media where the audience is pretty dumb, but hard to convince the folk on the receiving end in reality (hence the large scale protesting inside Israel).

quim said:

Today Israel is just killing with impunity. Israeli infrastructure is intact, with weapons and oil depots full. Their economy has always been supported by the west. They have more jets and missiles and bombs than ever before and they are getting more and more from the US and Europe. Meanwhile, Gaza is worse than the Warsaw ghetto, Lebanon's economy is a disaster and Hezbollah suffers countless casualties with impunity.

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Where are you getting this info from?
Considering how much military aid to Ukraine had to be suspended and diverted to Israel by USA indicates anything but "full" depots. And how about the actual soldiers? Many months ago, Israel was contracting foreign mercenaries as well as trying to lift the exemption on Haredim for conscription. Doesn't sound very full. Rather it sounds the exact opposite - deficient. Not to forget political turmoil shortly before the war in which tens of thousands of soldiers refuse to show up on duty in protests which are still raging in Israel.

solarz said:

This operation really just smacks of desperation, much like the Castro assassination plots.

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Dude this was a very successful military and intelligence operation. If any country did this then we will still recognise such a feat. As much as we might hate Israel and their policies, we have to admit they have one of the best intelligence/secret service/militaries im the world. No denying that. Hopefully their adversaries are learning from them as well.

Minm said:

Hamas couldn't defend their territory. Hezbollah actually managed to stop the invasion of militant Jews in 2006. Of course they're going to take damage from airstrikes and other attacks. But if they try to invade Lebanon again, then we can assess the strength of Hezbollah.

Right now, the Jewish state looks like a terrorist state to everyone in the global south and everyone will agree that they're the aggressor. That makes direct American involvement less likely and gives Hezbollah and its supporters the moral high ground. Some losses today don't really matter, if they're achieved using crimes against humanity. It will only lead to more volunteers from Syria and Iraq arriving. It's quite remarkable that the Lebanese government is actually condemning the attacks, they might even help Hezbollah defend their country

These attacks are comparable to the small attacks Russia/DPR/LPR did just before the Ukraine war started. Ukraine didn't invade Russia or attack its cities in response, they didn't take the bait but waited for Russia to go in. This must be the Lebanese approach too

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Agree that we can't compare Hamas and Hezbollah per se . For one Hamas is a ragtag militia group and the best they can do is use civilian areas for cover to fight Israel. They are not in a position to fight Israel face to face as a genuine military and they know that..hence their strategy. So it's normal from that perspective.
By contrast Hezbollah has grown more into almost a full fledge standing military and as such their war strategy differs from Hamas since Hezbollah is a quasi state actor today with a conventional military(though they are not officially one on paper). So Hezbollah jas much more responsibilities towards Lebanon than a ragtag militias group like Hamas. So I don't think we can compare the 2. It's like comparing ISIS or other Syrian militias groups to the Syrian army. Conventional warfare is different from fighting militias groups/non state actors. In fact the latter is much more complex since you are not directly facing the enemy and sometimes you can't ecen see the enemy since they hide and blend with the civilian population and they retaliate using unconventional means.
It's like Russia's brutal unconventional war in chechenya against Chechen rebels to the conventional one in Ukraine today.

Michael90 said:

Dude this was a very successful military and intelligence operation. If any country did this then we will still recognise such a feat.

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No, for almost all countries, making toxic your whole civilian industry just for a 1 off indiscriminate attack that puts maybe at best 100 enemies out of action is a colossal failure.

Michael90 said:

As much as we might hate Israel and their policies, we have to admit they have one of the best intelligence/secret service/militaries im the world. No denying that. Hopefully their adversaries are learning from them as well.

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A country with actual strong intelligence/secret service/militaries would do this:

1. Track the whereabout of phones of the enemy command, cross reference with real time satellite intel

2. Send targeted airstrikes

As an example, the Poltava strike last month. Hundreds dead, nearly all enemy combatants, enemy leadership and industry experts killed. No loss of credibility. No major rallying around the flag effect, because civilians were not impacted.

And the top tiers of nations in military/intelligence power can pull these types of attacks over and over again, incurring high 100 000s of casualties on even well defended objectives, or even more against non-defended ones. Barracks, depots, command and control etc. Israel is far from that level, so cannot be considered even approaching the best.

When a country is forced to break from conventional tactics and resort to asymmetric terror, it is a sign of worsening state integrity. We do not recognize the planning of Rwandans to slaughter 100 000s tutsis in a few hours, nor Al Qaida's stroke of killing 2000 Americans in a single strike as a brilliant military/intelligence feat for a reason.

gullible said:

guys, israel is going to prevail in the hamas-hezbollah tribal wars...that is heaven's mandate

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Israel is not even truly fighting Hamas nor Hezbollah. Conflict boils down to Israel vs Iran, with America and Russia each acting as their weapons/training/personnel sponsor. And behind Russia, China employing them as their first echelon into the fray against America.

It's a race of endurance to see which side gets worn out first.

Michael90 said:

For one Hamas is a ragtag militia group and the best they can do is use civilian areas for cover to fight Israel. They are not in a position to fight Israel face to face as a genuine military and they know that..hence their strategy.

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while it's true that Hezbolah grew to be more like a regular military than a militia yet in regards to Hamas...

Hamas militants damage or take out Israeli tanks by literally running towards the tank and then placing the explosives by hand on the tank. you can't possible get more "face to face" than that. or do you expect of Hamas militants to run towards IDF soldiers and then grab them by their skulls and kiss them on their lips for it to be considered "face to face"!

Hamas militants are not one of the most but instead they are the most professional warriors that we have seen in recent times. they were able to slap the Golani brigade on the 7th of october using the simplest home made weaponry even though the border with Gaza was supposed to be the most secured border. you cannot find a professional warrior like that anywhere else.

Gaza is a very small strip of land packed with 2 million people, every area of it is civilian area. but Hamas uses tunnels, not civilians as cover. however since the IDF as a whole are far much less professional warriors than Hamas the IDF resorts to targeting civilians because that is the only thing they can retaliate against in hopes that killing children would force Hamas to surrender, exactly like how a thug would act & not how an actual soldier would act.

from a purely military point of view, comparing Hamas to ISIS or other NATO sponsered Syrian groups is like comparing heaven to earth. these "Syrian" groups were recieving a constant flow of NATO trained militants from all over the world who were being smuggled from two fronts (Jordan & Turkey) while being armed with modern weaponry & armored personnel carriers mainly from Turkey. yet these groups still performed horribly against a worn out Syrian military (for example the opposition lost Aleppo in 10 months after the SAA began an offensive in April 2016) thanks to a limited Russian air campaign of an average of 60 airstrikes per day spread out over the entire country and not just one area.

if we compare ISIS to Hamas ideologicaly then it is more accurate to compare ISIS to the IDF. afterall both ISIS and the IDF systemicaly target civilians of a different religion in hopes that they could kill them or drive them out for the sake of achieving some religious profecy based on a 1000yo, 2000yo book.

while Hamas on the other hand is quite pragmatic in their goals. Sinwar himself said in a speach one or two years before Al Aqsa flood that Hamas will have peace with Israel if a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders was established with east Jeruselem as it's capital. by the way the 1967 borders represent about 22% of the landmass of Palestine.
I couldn't find the video of Sinwar's speech again but I will look for it few later on in the day.

Michael90 said:

Dude this was a very successful military and intelligence operation. If any country did this then we will still recognise such a feat. As much as we might hate Israel and their policies, we have to admit they have one of the best intelligence/secret service/militaries im the world. No denying that. Hopefully their adversaries are learning from them as well.

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No, there's nothing sophisticated about smuggling explosives into a country to conduct a mass terror attack. You might as well compare this attack to 9/11: it might be a successful terror attack, but it certainly doesn't qualify as a military operation.

Michael90 said:

Dude this was a very successful military and intelligence operation. If any country did this then we will still recognise such a feat.

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Not really, no. It is the kind of trick you can only pull once and has far ranging ramifications outside of the war including people side eyeing anything coming from or through the west, for limited strategic gains.

Then there is reputational hit for a country already quite disliked for the mass murder of civilians as it was.

Michael90 said:

As much as we might hate Israel and their policies, we have to admit they have one of the best intelligence/secret service/militaries im the world

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Considering how they failed to spot Oct 7 and how they have relied on badly made up evidence and claims, thats debatable. They are good at having and training deathsquads, but thats about it at this point.

Even their reputation as an Army is questionable, seeing how they fight no differently than the Saudis or any other badly trained Arab army, relying on air power and nothing else.

Israel wants a regional war because the current war of attrition is too much for them. They believe that in a regional war the US can save them and defeat Iran. The axis of resistance said right from jump that they are waging a war of attrition to exhaust Israel militarily,economically and politically. Yeah Israel can kill as much Hezbollah commanders as they want but it’s a failing strategy. Hezbollah already has a hierarchical structure in place to replace those that were lost. Israel for example has killed Hamas leaders for years but did that prevent the humiliation of October 7th? No it did not. All it does is kill older moderate leaders that get replaced by more younger radical and militant leaders.

They also have a force of 100k men. They have militant allies like the Amal movement,Hamas and PIJ branches in Lebanon. And not to mention the rest of the axis of resistance groups are gathering forces in Syria. And I would imagine just like Hamas,Hezbollah has had a large increase of new recruits. Hezbollah has been playing this smart that the majority of Lebanese society with the exception of the Zionist Maronites. So Israel’s only hope is a Great War in the Mideast. Because at the current trajectory they face internal collapse. The military is overstretched,exhausted and dealing with low morale. Manpower shortages as men are refusing to be re drafted out of fear of entering the Gaza morass. Munitions and spare parts are in low supply. Their economy is in an unprecedented crisis. Their society is under stress with internal strife. They are reviled worldwide. Only thing that’s keeping them going is unyielding support from Western governments. That’s not a sustainable long term solution.