Interesting Evaluation ....
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
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There were 331 missiles and drones. 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles. Israel claimed 100% interception of drones and cruise missiles and 93% interception of ballistic missiles. If you look at the images of impacts you will see that the number of arrivals is much higher than the possible 7-8 of the missiles that passed through the air defense unharmed, the real number that only I saw was 15-16 ballistic missiles and it could be more with the missiles that have not been registered.
You are taking Israel at its word. I'm sorry but that's naive.
Furthermore, the attack package did not even have the most modern missiles in waves launched to cause the greatest possible destruction. Most of the strike package was slow, highly interceptable Shaheds drones with older BMs, yet Israel claimed 93% intercept rate on these missiles, from the videos, if you consider that 93% of 110 missiles means Israel would have to having intercepted 102 missiles with only 7 records of impacts, Israel is lying, there are more than 15 direct impacts of ballistic missiles in videos, apart from the missiles that have not yet been recorded.
This in addition to:
Israel also had direct military support from other countries on land (Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the USA), in the air (Jordan, USA and UK), at sea (USA) and in space (USA).
Israel still had three days' notice to prepare for this attack, including civilians.
The attack was limited to considering that Iran does not want to escalate the situation further. If it had used its real capabilities, it would have launched waves of ballistic missiles and drones in a row to overwhelm the entire air defense of Israel and its allies and still destroy a large part of Israel.
The largest air defense apparatus in the region was not even enough to contain a country's limited attack in retaliation for a previous event. If it were a war, Israel would still be targeted by Iranian missiles and drones.
This attack proved what Israel has always done in its wars that it did not fight: It eliminated the enemy's ability to attack before it launched against Israel. The best defense remains the attack and will continue to be so. This attack only reinforced that.
Yesterday's scenario proved that the greatest saturation attack wins over the best air defense.
That's understandable because attacking is forbidden in Ramadan. Iran attacked on the first day, after Ramadan + 3 days of Eid had ended, exactly 2 weeks after the embassy attack.
I can tell you with a straight face that a very large chunk of those munitions traversed +1200km and into Israeli airspace. That's +1000km over airspace occupied by US/UK/France/Jordan. That's the obvious failure. Tabriz, for example, is less than 200km away from Iraq's border where USAF and RCAF have complete dominance as well multiple bases .. but somehow the missiles ended up over Israel? 1000km of failure? A resounding success would be missiles and drones intercepted over Iraq or even Jordan, far away from Israel, not hitting targets at deep inside Israeli territory at Israel's nuclear sites, in Haifa, Hebron and Tel Aviv.
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There's 3 videos of the actual impact and two of them looks like the same strike from different angle. Israel do not have a iron grip on their social media, I personally do not believe that there's much more than the 7 reported.
It is a performance, both sides knew the stakes well in advance. But a ballistic missile is still a ballistic missile and substantial infrastructure is required, were it to be a real war then Iranian launch sites will also be under counter battery fire, they would not be able to maintain this tempo for long.
Drones and cruise missiles without air superiority is completely impotent as shown in this attack. CAP is perfectly capable of defeating a majority of the strike package without air escort. The only real danger here are the ballistic missiles. The US and friends is happy to do this AD work for Israel, just not sold on actual attack on Iranian soil.
This have 2019 vibe again when the claimed that was "minimal", "was only a few runways", "Iranian missiles have bad accuracy", "only few belongings"
Only to be revealed that the damage was pretty hefty and if wasn't for the early warnings the death toll would have been unacceptable.
Only to be revealed that the damage was pretty hefty and if wasn't for the early warnings the death toll would have been unacceptable.
Problem is this performance demonstrate what happens when 100% of Israel + US AD capabilities works against a small fraction of Iranian strike capability, the defense is strained and missiles got through. Obviously you can't extrapolate this result to what happens when 100% of Israel + US AD against 100% Iranian strike, I hope I don't have to explain why.
In a real war Iran won't launch things in piecemeal, they'll fire everything at once for maximum saturation.
This is the lesson Iran wish to impart on Israeli regime, whether they got the message remains to be seen. If there is a next round, Iran won't be so nice to intentionally miss those hangers. This is not to say Iran won't suffer grave consequence but I think Iranian's leader is clearly aware of it hence the restraint.
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This is a off ramp for everyone involved, both sides can spin it as a propaganda victory. I highly doubt Israel will take the hint, but neither can they actually sustain operations against Iran without US anyhow. They'll likely bomb some Iranian proxies and call it a day.
At the end of the day, open warfare between two "non-nuclear armed" states is bad for everyone.
Reality is that the paradigm has shifted. The barrier of the fear of attacking Israeli territory directly by a nation has been broken.
There's no options, lol. They can't strike inside Iran. It's as simple as that. They lack logistical capability.
Uncle Sam so far has refused to strike Iran on their behalf.
So they have to accept the new equation imposed by Iran. Iran established deterrence for itself.
Israel is now trying to finesse America taxpayers to replace all those missile batteries and fund them. Israel has took over $100 billion of American tax payer money in 7 months to commit it's genocide in Gaza. And it will request even more.
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I'd say this is exactly what Iran is trying to achieve, Israel (Bibi) wants to escalate to the point of inviting US involvement, if Iran manages to prevent it from happening then it is an Iran victory, simple as that. Lets see what Bibi tries next
And to be somewhat Machiavelli about it, if Iran fails to prevent it then it is a Chinese victory......
I saw more than 15 clearly recognized arrivals and impacts. The issue with the social network is not a question of censorship, but of not proving all interceptions, after all, the one who has to prove the 93% effectiveness is Israel and not Iran. As I said, if you believe Israel's word the It's not my problem, but I don't believe even 1% of what they say, this is a matter of national security and they would never give a real interception number that would put the country in a disadvantageous position compared to a country extremely hostile to Israel.
To do this, Israel would have to count on the full support of its allies, Israel does not have this expeditionary capacity to suppress different launch sites throughout the country like Iran, this is a capacity that simply does not exist in Israel, they would never be able to carry out this mission, the logistics of support is even greater and 10 times greater than an Israeli air raid into Iran.
As I said, Israel did not contain the ballistic missile attack despite having the largest air defense capacity in the region with ample advance warning, support in all domains from allies and with the opponent using everything that is no longer modern in terms of saturation. After all, the only one tested here is Israel's air defense system and it did not pass the test.