Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

fatzergling said:

There is a nonzero chance of this conflict spiraling out of control much like the Marco Polo Bridge Incident turned from an isolated incident to a war engulfing all of China. It really depends whether or not Israel takes the bait and escalates the conflict. While Israel can easily force a return to the status quo, the provocations might be enough for such an escalation. The government stating their intention to raze Gaza doesn't help either.

Click to expand...

I agree on the potential for escalation but not on its scope. What states can realistically enter the conflict? Jordan is a US puppet. Saudi has their own quagmire to worry about. Syria and Iraq are busy trying to hold their own countries together. That leaves Hezbollah, Egypt, and Iran. It's possible Egypt gets involved but I strongly doubt it since they are highly dependent on US arms. So Iran and Hezbollah, the latter of which has already gotten engaged.

Iran almost certainly does not have the logistical capability to sustain an invasion attempt of Israel, and even if they did that would invite US intervention so they would not try it. That leaves their conventional ballistic capability and weapons supplies. I don't feel confident making claims about the former, I can say that they will definitely be doing their best to supply Hezbollah. However, with all trade with Gaza cut off, Hamas will be left with what stocks of supplies they have without possibility for outside sustainment. That is why I doubt their capability to conduct a successful guerilla campaign longer term. Vietcong, mujahedeen won because of consistent overland supply from outside powers. Without that Hamas is likely to simply run out of ammunition and food after sufficient time has passed. Moreover they have very little space to hide, unlike the others who had vast rainforests and mountain ranges full of caves.

The funny things about debating an "American" is, they are going to tell you what they have,what you have, what they are going to do, what you are going to do, and then how they are gonna go home successfully defending earth from Aliens, aint that cute?

fatzergling said:

nearly 24 hours and already another faction joins the conflict. Descalation seems more and more unlikely.

Click to expand...

Well they didnt declare it yet, i wish they do. Until they physically enter,its just some distraction.
What Hamas & Hezbollah needs to do is to make sure the body counts on the other side remains higher. That will do for now.

Boltzmann said:

And why don't they want to

Click to expand...

Because of moral and religious reasons. Ayatollah Khamenei issued a Fatwa against the acquisition, development and use of nuclear weapons nearly 30 years ago. His predecessor had the same stance towards WMDs as evidenced by Iran never retaliating in kind to Saddam's chemical attacks.

Boltzmann said:

And why don't they want to

Click to expand...

They're staying a threshold state because it grants them maximum room to maneuver while keeping the bargaining chip. Not because they're cowering against US and Israeli retaliation.

Misunderstanding why things are as they are is exactly why Israel is in this position right now.

There's also the fact once they get a bomb, the Saudis will get one too.
There's a bunch of context missing here......

Stierlitz said:

Because of moral and religious reasons. Ayatollah Khamenei issued a Fatwa against the acquisition, development and use of nuclear weapons nearly 30 years ago. His predecessor had the same stance towards WMDs.

Click to expand...

Can we have a new rule where members have to be atheists please? The party already does it. This flare up in a religiously charged conflict has revealed depth of the problem here.

— // Second day of the war, morning of October 8th, status update:

– One radar station and two IDF outposts targeted with mortars and ATGMs by Hezbollah from Lebanon

– 27 IDF killed in operational activities to clear settlements from Palestinian infiltrators

– At least dozens, possibly hundreds of Palestinian fighters still inside Israeli settlements near Gaza

– Approximately 100 Israeli hostages, most of them active IDF soldiers, still in captivity of Hamas

– Israeli Defense Forces unsucessful in entering the main combat phase and entering Gaza so far

– Hamas sending reinforcements to captured settlements, especially Be'eri, Sderot and Ofakim

@Middle_East_Spectator

Boltzmann said:

Can we have a new rule where members have to be atheists please? The party already does it. This flare up in a religiously charged conflict has revealed depth of the problem here.

Click to expand...

Religion is relevant when discussing a war fueled by religion. You don't see us discuss religion with China vs Taiwan.

TK3600 said:

Religion is relevant when discussing a war fueled by religion. You don't see us discuss religion with China vs Taiwan.

Click to expand...

How is a person supposed to dispassionately analyze a religious conflict if they are an adherent to one of the religions? This is a unique problem not comparable to civil wars.

Boltzmann said:

How is a person supposed to dispassionately analyze a religious conflict if they are an adherent to one of the religions? This is a unique problem not comparable to civil wars.

Click to expand...

For someone dispassionate as me it is helpful for me to understand what passion drives a party, then I can make an dispassionate analysis.

While I highly doubt any sovereign state is going to get involved, we've seen thousands of Muslims from all over the world enter Syria a few years ago. They lost the fight to build an Islamic state. But there's still a chance to fight for Islam in Palestine. Of course these people can't enter Gaza, so they would need that northern front so they can fly into Lebanon or Turkey and then go to war