I legit fear that the Israel military would do something unthinkable and the resulting outcry would destroy any hope of Arab-Israeli reconciliation. Maybe not declaring war against Israel, but any chance for negotiation or recognition would be gone within my lifetime. Hamas isn't a conventional army, and the line between civilian and combatant can become so blurred that Israel will create a bloodbath in their quest to destroy Hamas.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
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Don't forget Israeli Arabs, as in Israeli citizens of Arab descent not Palestinians. Stating the obvious being a full blown apartheid state, Israel Arabs have been on the receiving end of some pretty nasty racism and that's why it was such a big shock during the last Israeli Palestinian conflict when they sided with the Gazans and rioted through Israeli streets, taking their frustrations out on the Israeli jews who spat on them daily.
Its already a given that Israel has the best conventional force in the Middle-East and any talk about transtate actors fighting them toe to toe was always playing into their hands. The internal stability of Israel itself and its unity was always the best places to strike. Much speculation came in that the IDF was in such a sorry state of combat readiness due to low morale caused by intrigues in the Netanyahu government. I don't know if Hamas exactly knew that, but they sure as hell capitalized on it for maximum effect. Chinese people of all should know a weak central government beset by infighting usually precludes disaster from within and without, and Israel for all its might has been gradually getting to that moment.
Gaza is an urban jungle, one of the most complex terrains in the world with probably 2x-3x the nominal surface area in habitable space. It is not an easy battlefield. Urban jungle is just as hard to fight in as tree jungle.
this is fucking wild. Gaza is rapidly turning into the first, but almost certainly not the last, true 21st century war:
1. fought in the 21st century environment of a concrete urban dystopia
2. dominated by extreme speed, drones, blurred lines between civilians and combatants, etc.
3. nobody knows what will happen next.
Ukraine and Russia will be watching this as they see their own tactics recycled into an even more brutal environment. All the 'urban combat' of Bakhmut and Mariupol does not compare to Gaza, as they were mostly medium density Soviet style cities which were planned much like Western European ones with tons of open space and well organized streets.
Gaza is just buildings on top of buildings, concrete on top of concrete.
In connection with this forum, I am 100% sure that the PLA is watching as well and redirecting surveillance assets as possible. Gaza is an urban jungle. So is most of the west coast of Taiwan.
If the ROCA really wants to fight to the death, it will be an urban fight in the streets of Taipei and Hsinchu. It would sadly be one of the dirtiest, most brutal combat in history. Gaza will be the 'light' version. Taipei is even more complex. Unlike Gaza, there's nowhere for refugees to flee. Will they do so? Nobody knows but there is the possibility, and that possibility must be prepared for.
The PLA needs to learn from both the offensive and defensive side here. Even more than Mariupol. Even more than Bakhmut. Learn in all respects.
If the ROCA really wants to fight to the death, it will be an urban fight in the streets of Taipei and Hsinchu. It would sadly be one of the dirtiest, most brutal combat in history. Gaza will be the 'light' version. Taipei is even more complex. Unlike Gaza, there's nowhere for refugees to flee. Will they do so? Nobody knows but there is the possibility, and that possibility must be prepared for.
The PLA needs to learn from both the offensive and defensive side here. Even more than Mariupol. Even more than Bakhmut. Learn in all respects.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Wonder how many DJIs the collective Middle East is ordering on AliExpress right now.
Gaza is an open air prison that can be bottled up and bombed from afar with impunity by the Israelis. A northern front with unlimited outside supply will be a completely different game.
Gaza is an open air prison that can be bottled up and bombed from afar with impunity by the Israelis. A northern front with unlimited outside supply will be a completely different game.
On the flip side, we may also see how western doctrine of precision fires stack up against Russian grid removal in urban combat. Much valuable lessons to be learnt here.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
There won’t be much ‘precision’ about Israel’s razing of Gaza. If there is going to be any worthy lessons from the upcoming calamity, it will be a perfect example of what NOT to do.
All the death and destruction from the last 24h are minor and ultimately insignificant on the grand scheme of things, but the truly devastating and lasting damage Hamas and Gaza has, and will deal to Israel is in firstly shattering their hard won and carefully maintained aura of invincibility; and secondly in their humiliation, rage, grief and desperation to restore their reputation, the Israelis will go way too far in Gaza and alienate the western world while enraging the Arabs and Muslims.
That will likely result in a long and bloody asymmetrical war that Israel will not be able to win decisively.