I have a feeling we'll soon have to fold/rename this thread into Middle-East 2023 conflict thread.
There are reports of multiple US bases in Iraq and Syria under attack and also one oil field explosion.
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Despite all the recent diplomatic showmanship, what blows this whole thing up is a concentrated Iranian missile bombardment of the Saudi oil-production and export facilities in the north-western Gulf region and Ras Tanura. Regardless of all the, “but, that will hurt my daddy” criticisms, it’s the best move, strategically, for Iran and Russia!
Just as the U. S., suddenly, found neutral-ground with Venezuela (to buy oil) after the Ukrainian issue limited access to Russian sources of energy, the world will find neutral-ground with Iran and Russia (to buy energy) should access to Saudi energy resources be limited by this conflict.
I could be incorrect; however, I doubt, highly, that the first response of the developed-world’s elites, after learning that Saudi energy-production and export had been taken offline, would be a reflex-reaction to take even more energy-resources offline. My expectation is that their first response would be to try to ensure and secure access to as many available energy-resources as possible.