Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Petrolicious88 said:
You say the aim is Iran, but the end game is China or Russia. So by that logic, why would Russia and China sit by and let this happen.
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That was what was written in the Project For New American Century document. Invade Iraq and North Korea, then use Iraq as a springboard to invade Iran. And then take on China. Back in the late 1990s Russia was considered as a spent force and basically aligned with US interests so it wasn't in the plans. But I kind of doubt that would be feasible. Iran is less weak militarily than a lot of people think. Just the terrain alone is a nightmare. It is mountainous like heck. This is why the US thus far has gone for a strategy to try to finance an internal revolt inside Iran instead.

1698196194625.jpeg

You can see here why Saddam basically invaded that tiny flat bit on the south near the Iranian border and then his armored offensive stalled against those mountains.
 
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james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
Petrolicious88 said:
You say the aim is Iran, but the end game is China or Russia. So by that logic, why would Russia and China sit by and let this happen.
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I don’t trust anything about Russia; they’ve been Europe-struck forever!
If they think they can double-cross China and get a European deal, they’ll take it in a heartbeat!
I’ve not noticed any inclination by the Chinese to commit to any extra-Chinese geo-strategic ‘adventures’.
As far as I’m ‘m concerned, China should’ve jumped all-in on the Iranian question, years-ago.
If they don’t intend to sit-by, then I’d expect that they’d deploy DF-26s to western China in preparation to sink some USN carriers in the eastern Mediterranean and the Red, and or Arabian Seas!
 
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RottenPanzer

RottenPanzer

Junior Member
Registered Member
james smith esq said:
I don’t trust anything about Russia; they’ve been Europe-struck forever!
If they think they can double-cross China and get a European deal, they’ll take it in a heartbeat!
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I don't think so
For these past few years, Russia has been trying to create a new form of identity completely authentic and original, completely detached from Eurocentrism
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
That was what was written in the Project For New American Century document. Invade Iraq and North Korea, then use Iraq as a springboard to invade Iran. And then take on China. Back in the late 1990s Russia was considered as a spent force and basically aligned with US interests so it wasn't in the plans. But I kind of doubt that would be feasible. Iran is less weak militarily than a lot of people think. Just the terrain alone is a nightmare. It is mountainous like heck. This is why the US thus far has gone for a strategy to try to finance an internal revolt inside Iran instead.

View attachment 120554

You can see here why Saddam basically invaded that tiny flat bit on the south near the Iranian border and then his armored offensive stalled against those mountains.
Click to expand...
That’s, also, where the Iranian oil-fields are and their access to the Shat-al-Arab! He didn’t plan to go any-farther; just wanted to take and hold that area.
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
RottenPanzer said:
I don't think so
For these past few years, Russia has been trying to create a new form of identity completely authentic and original, completely detached from Eurocentrism
Click to expand...
When I see more Asian-Russians represented in Russian leadership and media, I might begin to believe that!

I once read, “there is no more use in trying to be traditional than there is in trying to be original”!
That’s always stuck with me; it’s very Wu Wei!
 
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M

muddie

Junior Member
gelgoog said:
View attachment 120554

You can see here why Saddam basically invaded that tiny flat bit on the south near the Iranian border and then his armored offensive stalled against those mountains.
Click to expand...
The ideal time to invade Iran was post the Iraq war where U.S./NATO had substantial manpower and equipment in both Iraq and Afghanistan. It was also in the early 2000s where U.S. hegemony was unchallenged and China/Russia had limited power. This is not to mention Bush and his war hawks were still in power and had the political will to actually launch an invasion. I read somewhere invading Iran was seriously thought out during that time period.

If the U.S. chose not to fight Iran then, there is nil chance they choose to fight Iran now when the power dynamics have shifted greatly. Maybe eliminating Hezbollah is on the agenda cause it gets rid of a major threat to Israel. But IMO, any action taken against Hezbollah will draw in Iran anyways.
 
M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
The problem for the Israelis with attacking Iran has always been that they don't have the capability to do enough damage and Iran would be almost certain to complete their nuclear weapon after such an attack. So they really need the US to do a major bombing campaign. And I don't think they're willing to do that either. It would distract from Ukraine, Hamas and preparations for Taiwan. And it's only likely to cause more attacks on Israel rather than make it safer
 
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