Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Petrolicious88 said:

You say the aim is Iran, but the end game is China or Russia. So by that logic, why would Russia and China sit by and let this happen.

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It is also a main objective for China, draw US in and bleed them dry.

I think there's a reason both US or Israel are cautious about taking on Hezbollah. Consider just for a second how weak the response has been so far: IDF has lost more than a dozen tanks and nearly a 100 soldiers to Hezbollah cross border strikes. Imagine if Russian units fired at polish troops and killed dozens. Or ROC soldiers launched atgm at Fujian bases and destroyed over 10 tanks. Wouldn't it be a laughably weak response for the recipient to not immediately declare war?

US still has a working strategic planning apparatus and they're trying not to fall into the pit. But it will be increasingly difficult the more they get provoked.

gelgoog said:

That was what was written in the Project For New American Century document. Invade Iraq and North Korea, then use Iraq as a springboard to invade Iran. And then take on China. Back in the late 1990s Russia was considered as a spent force and basically aligned with US interests so it wasn't in the plans. But I kind of doubt that would be feasible. Iran is less weak militarily than a lot of people think. Just the terrain alone is a nightmare. It is mountainous like heck. This is why the US thus far has gone for a strategy to try to finance an internal revolt inside Iran instead.

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Is funny as hell that these stooges forgot the little tiny detail that the Iraqi population is mostly Shia and more sympathetic to Iran.

Biscuits said:

It is also a main objective for China, draw US in and bleed them dry.

I think there's a reason both US or Israel are cautious about taking on Hezbollah. Consider just for a second how weak the response has been so far: IDF has lost more than a dozen tanks and nearly a 100 soldiers to Hezbollah cross border strikes. Imagine if Russian units fired at polish troops and killed dozens. Or ROC soldiers launched atgm at Fujian bases and destroyed over 10 tanks. Wouldn't it be a laughably weak response for the recipient to not immediately declare war?

US still has a working strategic planning apparatus and they're trying not to fall into the pit. But it will be increasingly difficult the more they get provoked.

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it seems like israel has fallen into the same trap as in 2006. basically a kneejerk reaction to some event, but without planning or preparation. so now they are just doing air raids. eventually they will run out of target/ammo, and their only remaining option will be ground offensive. in 2006 their forces just went in unprepared and got a whooping, lets see if the lessons were learned this time.

tokenanalyst said:

Is funny as hell that these stooges forgot the little tiny detail that the Iraqi population is mostly Shia and more sympathetic to Iran.

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Not really. In fact familiarity breeds contempt and animosity most often funny enough. Many Iraqis(especially the nationalistic ones) despise Iran for getting involved in their country's internal affair , having proxies in the military and government and using them for their own strategic interests. Similar to the way Afghans have no lost love for Pakistan doing the sane in their opinion.
Iraq is a proud nation and they were once the most powerful country in the region militarily until Saddam bit more than he could chew and got decimated by the US military machine. . So it's an affront to some of them now that they have become almost under Iran's orbit and many of them even used as mere proxies. I think its normal that many of them feel such resentment judging from where they came from and their history.

drowingfish said:

it seems like israel has fallen into the same trap as in 2006. basically a kneejerk reaction to some event, but without planning or preparation. so now they are just doing air raids. eventually they will run out of target/ammo, and their only remaining option will be ground offensive. in 2006 their forces just went in unprepared and got a whooping, lets see if the lessons were learned this time.

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This. There is no elaborate plan to bring America in to fight Hezbollah and Iran. You have Israeli politicians who all grew up in an age of Israeli military dominance not having bothered to keep up with reality and making knee-jerk decisions thinking they are a military superpower and are now raging impotently when reality is starting to finally dawn on them that their mouthes have written cheques the vaunted Israeli military cannot cash.

Calling up all those reservists proved two things. One, the politicians in charge don’t know shit about what really wins wars - logistics.

The risk of escalation is far higher with Israel than Ukraine. Far higher than what most people might think.

MOD EDIT - deleted rants and off topic speculations involving China

plawolf said:

No one in the region wanted to fight the IDF of legend. But if it turns out the IDF has allowed itself to turn into a paper tiger,

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Thing is, most of the heavy lifting was done by the Air Force in both the 6 Day War and the Yom Kippur War, the latter of which they almost lost anyway. But air power generally means fuck all against an insurgency, as the US has been adept at demonstrating for decades.

The "mythical IDF" is mostly the IAF.

Michael90 said:

Not really. In fact familiarity breeds contempt and animosity most often funny enough. Many Iraqis(especially the nationalistic ones) despise Iran for getting involved in their country's internal affair , having proxies in the military and government and using them for their own strategic interests. Similar to the way Afghans have no lost love for Pakistan doing the sane in their opinion.
Iraq is a proud nation and they were once the most powerful country in the region militarily until Saddam bit more than he could chew and got decimated by the US military machine. . So it's an affront to some of them now that they have become almost under Iran's orbit and many of them even used as mere proxies. I think its normal that many of them feel such resentment judging from where they came from and their history.

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Yes, in the contemporary context, nationalism has proven to be more powerful than religionism, economicism, and politicism.
The only things that, consistently, trump nationalism are clanism and tribalism!

sheogorath said:

Thing is, most of the heavy lifting was done by the Air Force in both the 6 Day War and the Yom Kippur War, the latter of which they almost lost anyway. But air power generally means fuck all against an insurgency, as the US has been adept at demonstrating for decades.

The "mythical IDF" is mostly the IAF.

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Air power means nothing against insurgencies with reliable overland resupply from outside powers and/or nearly unlimited room to retreat. There really is not any historical precedent for a COIN operation of this scale being done in an area so small and blocked off as Gaza. I would strongly recommend against making comparisons to things like Vietnam or Afghanistan until at least a few weeks after the operation has started.

Many people accuse the Israel leadership of hot headed decision making, which I think has some basis. However, I do not understand how many of these same people then chastise the IDF for not having already rushed in within days of the attack. Is it bad to rush in like Lebanon, or is it bad to wait and set up sustainment infrastructure and a viable plan before going in? It can't be both.

Dolcevita said:

CNN choose to narrate a more sensational angle. CNN need to flame and justify more slaughter.

‘I went through hell:’ Released Hamas hostage describes being kidnapped and taken into tunnel system​

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This reminds me this Egyptian woman shouting at CNN reporter during a protest near GAZA.

She eventually accepted an interview by CNN, probably from the CNN reporter she shout at, on the promise that the recording of the interview MUST not be edited by CNN when released. Well, how much one can trust that promise or if the interview will ever be published is another question.

Anyway, this demonstrates that CNN is a wellknown habitual lier to all people who has sufferred from western media. It is the "soft power" biting back. It takes only once or twice to destroy one's credibility, but takes much longer time if not forever to recover credibility.