Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Overbom

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Invasion has been approved. Probably just waiting for Sunak to get out before they make a move.
400k soldiers (mostly reserves..), of which a portion will be deployed in the front lines, attacking in a heavily fortified and messy urban environment, defended by 50k religious and die-hards Palestinians ready to sacrifice their life to just damage the opponent.

I think that Israel is going to have a disaster at its hands ala US with its adventure in Afghanistan
 
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coolgod

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Rockets, drones hit Iraqi base housing U.S. forces -security sources​

ANBAR, Iraq, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Drones and rockets targeted on Thursday evening the Ain al-Asad air base, which hosts U.S. and other international forces in western Iraq, and multiple blasts were heard inside the base, two security sources said.

The Iraqi military said it closed the area around the base and started a search operation. It was not clear yet whether the attacks caused casualties or damages, said the sources.

Thursday's attack is the third in less than 24 hours against airbases which house U.S. troops in Iraq.
I think it's starting.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

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"In exchange they'll lose at minimum 1-2k soldiers KIA, 10k WIA and the opportunity cost of 100k soldiers doing work of lower value than they did in civilian life"- this includes the Hezbollah front?
No, just the urban warfare in Gaza.
400k soldiers (mostly reserves..), of which a portion will be deployed in the front lines, attacking in a heavily fortified and messy urban environment, defended by 50k religious and die-hards Palestinians ready to sacrifice their life to just damage the opponent.

I think that Israel is going to have a disaster at its hands ala US with its adventure in AfAfghanistan

Even the Nazi Germans took 2-17k KIA during the Warsaw Uprising.

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This is going to look like the Middle Eastern version of Warsaw or Stalingrad. And it is going to be streamed in 4k video. Who can stomach that?
 

FriedButter

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US to divert shells for Ukraine to Israel – Axios​

The US will give Israel tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells that were originally set aside for Ukraine, Axios reported on Thursday. The Israeli military reportedly told the Pentagon that it needed the shells to prepare for a ground invasion of Gaza.

The US maintains a stockpile of ammunition at a facility in Israel, which only US forces have access to. Earlier this year, the US began taking shells from this facility and another stockpile in South Korea in order to meet Ukraine’s massive demand for ammo.

Israeli officials told the news site that the US will now be refilling this stockpile with ammunition from its own stocks that had been earmarked for Ukraine, at the direct request of the Israeli government. The officials said that the shells will arrive in Israel in the coming weeks.

The report comes a day after US President Joe Biden visited Israel. After Biden met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, the latter said that the US president had promised him a “massive, unprecedented” package of military aid.
Israeli officials told the news site that the US will now be refilling this stockpile with ammunition from its own stocks that had been earmarked for Ukraine at the direct request of the Israeli government.

Insert the come join us meme for Zelensky.

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This is going to look like the Middle Eastern version of Warsaw or Stalingrad. And it is going to be streamed in 4k video. Who can stomach that?

Maybe Berlin is more comparable due to the size? Stalingrad still had supplies and reinforcements flowing into the city from the Volgograd river during the course of the siege.
 

tamsen_ikard

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400k soldiers (mostly reserves..), of which a portion will be deployed in the front lines, attacking in a heavily fortified and messy urban environment, defended by 50k religious and die-hards Palestinians ready to sacrifice their life to just damage the opponent.

I think that Israel is going to have a disaster at its hands ala US with its adventure in Afghanistan
They will still be utterly defeated and Gaza depopulated unless Hezbollah joins in. Due to blockade Hamas always had a limited set of weapon stockpiles. Only Hezbollah and Iranian proxies has the freedom and money to gain whatever weapons they need.

So, now the key question in this fight is what Iran and hezbollah does.
 
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Overbom

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They will still be utterly defeated and Gaza depopulated unless Hezbollah joins in. Due to blockade Hamas always had a limited set of weapon stockpiles. Only Hezbollah and Iranian proxies has the freedom and money to gain whatever weapons they need.

So, now the key question in this fight is what Iran and hezbollah does.
Its probably tempting to stay out and watch the drama, but Hezbollah has to go in otherwise its strategic environment will rapidly deteriorate when the Gaza front is eliminated allowing Israel to marshal all its forces to focus on Hezbollah
 

TK3600

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They will still be utterly defeated and Gaza depopulated unless Hezbollah joins in. Due to blockade Hamas always had a limited set of weapon stockpiles. Only Hezbollah and Iranian proxies has the freedom and money to gain whatever weapons they need.

So, now the key question in this fight is what Iran and hezbollah does.
I agree. I am super optimistic about Palestinians, but I still think Gaza is done. Israel will lose like 10k~ soldiers in Gaza. Most of the damage will come from outside military cost in Gaza. There will be severe diplomatic set backs, economic damage, depopulation, and of course a much larger war from north. This will also cost America a lot, from giving up Ukraine and from helping a collapsing economy. Nevertheless, I am not delusional enough to think Gaza can resist Israeli occupation if Israel insists.

One of my previous post was deleted, but Gaza will likely be sacrificed, but bring greater goods for Palestinians and global south in the long terms.

No, just the urban warfare in Gaza.


Even the Nazi Germans took 2-17k KIA during the Warsaw Uprising.

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This is going to look like the Middle Eastern version of Warsaw or Stalingrad. And it is going to be streamed in 4k video. Who can stomach that?
Warsaw had proper economy and aids from Allies.
 
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drowingfish

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They will still be utterly defeated and Gaza depopulated unless Hezbollah joins in. Due to blockade Hamas always had a limited set of weapon stockpiles. Only Hezbollah and Iranian proxies has the freedom and money to gain whatever weapons they need.

So, now the key question in this fight is what Iran and hezbollah does.
there are a few reasons why hezbollah has to join, if israel attempts to occupy gaza

1. the US has already said that hezbolla joining the fight may not trigger their intervention.
2. as others have said, once hamas is gone, hezbollah is next.
3. hezbollah will never find israel in such a terrible position again, caught off guard, criticized around the world, and short on ammo. their biggest ally the US is also governed by democrats, which may not be the case in two years. the US is also very distracted by ukraine.
4. this one is not talked about enough. iran wants to be seen as a leader of the muslim world, but iran cannot intervene due to distance. iran would absolutely want hezbollah to intervene, because everyone sees hezbolla as an extension of iran. so if hezbollah joins, the muslim world will give some of that credit to iran.
 
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