Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Stierlitz said:

Maj. Gen. (res.) Gadi Shamni, a former commander of the IDF’s Gaza Division and former military attaché in the United States, tells Channel 12 in the wake of US President Joe Biden’s visit that “the United States is expecting us to destroy Hamas.”

What’s more, says Shamni, even if there weren’t an American green light, Israel must not end this war until “Hamas is utterly beaten… and Gaza demilitarized.” By the end, all the hostages must be returned, and Israel must determine the conditions for Gaza’s reconstruction, possibly with a return of Palestinian Authority rule there, he says.

He says Hamas recognizes that Israel has a leadership problem, without effective “hands on the wheel,” and castigates Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for having “nurtured” Hamas, including by “inviting billions” in funding to flow into the Strip.

Shamni says the military task is “complex” but the IDF can do it — “it has the fighters, the weaponry, the fighting spirit and the determination.”

The mission will last 6-8 months, he predicts. “Conquering Gaza, taking control of Gaza… will take a few weeks.” Then Israel will have to kill and capture Hamas’s armed forces. “Thousands will have to be jailed in the Negev to serve as bargaining chips” for the over 200 captives Hamas holds hostage.

“If Israel were to free [Palestinian security prisoners] as Hamas wants, that would be defeat for Israel. It would merely invite further attacks.”

“So there is no choice. People who talk of other options, to do it all from the air” are mistaken, he says. Airstrikes are important, but ultimately the ground forces have to go in.

He says Hamas “can absorb a lot” of punishing military strikes, and that the terror groups feel “like they have a bonanza” with so many hostages. “They think that they can bend us to their will.” The IDF should be careful in areas where it thinks hostages are being held, but overall, “the IDF must move forward with full force.”

Shamni says the IDF is capable of acting simultaneously on the northern front against Hezbollah if needed, and controlling the West Bank. Ultimately, he adds, Hezbollah must be pushed back from its positions at the northern border. “That too we will have to solve by force,” he says, since diplomacy won’t push Hezbollah back.

“The reality there is worse” than it was before the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, he says, and “people won’t go back to live” in the northern border area near Lebanon unless or until Hezbollah is pushed back.

@Times of Israel

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Spokesman for the Israeli Prime Minister told Sky News Arabia: If Hezbollah launches an attack, every Lebanese will know the consequences

@DDgeopolitics

Astounding how casually Israel can make these genocidal threats without anyone in the West batting an eyelid.

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phrozenflame said:

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Another piece of analysis that shreds Israeli claims.


Also, some here said Pentagon did it's investigation, guess what...Pentagon basically took what Israel and their trolls gave them and agreed to it, because why the hell won't they, lmao.

See here:

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It's really appalling some well respected members having seen this trick play out multiple times in the past in various parts of the world, fell for it this time. Please be more vigilant and careful!

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phrozenflame said:

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Another piece of analysis that shreds Israeli claims.


Also, some here said Pentagon did it's investigation, guess what...Pentagon basically took what Israel and their trolls gave them and agreed to it, because why the hell won't they, lmao.

See here:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It's really appalling some well respected members having seen this trick play out multiple times in the past in various parts of the world, fell for it this time. Please be more vigilant and careful!

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Michael90 said:

Which rest of the world are you talking about bro? Lol no country will go to war with Israel as I told you before, not even Iran. The only country that I can see going to war with Israel like recently before is Lebanon and that's because of militias group like Hezbollah not because of the Lebanese government or military or people. Shia militia group Hezbollah is the one that defacto controls Lebanon and decides if they wil drag Levanon to war or not. The Lebanese government/state/military are powerless towards Hezbollah. In short Hezbollah has kinda taken the country hostage if we want to put it in another way.
So yeah Hezbollah is the only party who can drag her country to war, and that's also because they are a militias group not a conventional army of a country. So they can avoid some rules of war and avoid fighting conventional like a regular army/military and they don't have much responsibilities to follow the rules of war as a non state actor..so this complicates things for their adversaries, since they also have plausible deniability in this regard. Something a country's regular army doesn't have. So yeah I can see Lebanon getting involved duebto Hezbollah but that's it. Nobody else is getting involved here in fighting Israel. Since the others are state actors who have much more to consider and alot to lose.
As I said every country is after their own national interests. Why will they jeopardise their interests and country's stability/finances to fight a destructive war with Israel over a foriegn country(Palestinians)? So this won't happen..back in the day the Arabs did so because they believed they could easily triumph over Israel which was a newly formed state and not stable as of yet and Arab countries were riding the new wave of pan Arab nationalism with populist revolutionary governments like Abdel Nasser or Anwal Saddat of Egypt and Amin Hafez of Syria etc So they took the gamble . Today that's all change and they are much more rational and aware of Israels military power to strike back as well..so nobody will take that chance. Thinking otherwise is wishful thinking. So Palestinians only credible way is to negotiate with Israel for some form of recognition and mutual concessions. Else Israel is the stronger side and there's nothing we can do about it.. so they should negotiate and of course some concessions will be made. But so is life.

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kwaigonegin said:

Cold hard truth that some find it difficult to either recognize or accept. At the end of the day with geopolitics and self interests the way it is today, the status quo will remain.
NO Arab country will engage in a full scale war with Israel over Gaza. NONE. Conversely Israel will definitely not go to war with any sovereign states either.
Like it or not, Gaza will forever be that lone forgotten pawn on the geopolitical chessboard that nobody really wants to waste a precious move on so there it stays.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

Doesn't matter. As you say, Israel isn't going to go to war with any other sovereign nation thus this war with Gaza will be a net loss no matter what.

There's no more productive land for them to annex. They've already conscripted 5% of their entire population yet are doing nothing and won't get anything useful. Their image of invincibility and even competence has been shattered.

Let's say they invade Gaza and win. Then what? They get a bombed out ruin in a small strip of land that was already under 99% of their control as they controlled food, water and electricity. In exchange they'll lose at minimum 1-2k soldiers KIA, 10k WIA and the opportunity cost of 100k soldiers doing work of lower value than they did in civilian life, in a punitive expedition that won't gain them any new land, loot or leverage.

Their diplomatic image in third party countries is ruined. Certainly has been in China. Even US officials are resigning over this. So what do they gain?

In the end there's no upside to this for Israel. Doesn't matter what happens to Gaza. What, they're gonna displace or purge the entire population there? If not then they'll be back for round N soon. If yes then this is the worst time to do it when all eyes are on them.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

Doesn't matter. As you say, Israel isn't going to go to war with any other sovereign nation thus this war with Gaza will be a net loss no matter what.

There's no more productive land for them to annex. They've already conscripted 5% of their entire population yet are doing nothing and won't get anything useful. Their image of invincibility and even competence has been shattered.

Let's say they invade Gaza and win. Then what? They get a bombed out ruin in a small strip of land that was already under 99% of their control as they controlled food, water and electricity. In exchange they'll lose at minimum 1-2k soldiers KIA, 10k WIA and the opportunity cost of 100k soldiers doing work of lower value than they did in civilian life, in a punitive expedition that won't gain them any new land, loot or leverage.

Their diplomatic image in third party countries is ruined. Certainly has been in China. Even US officials are resigning over this. So what do they gain?

In the end there's no upside to this for Israel. Doesn't matter what happens to Gaza. What, they're gonna displace or purge the entire population there? If not then they'll be back for round N soon. If yes then this is the worst time to do it when all eyes are on them.

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kwaigonegin said:

There's no upside. My post was merely in response to those who think there is going to be some knight in shining armor swooping down to save the Gazans and wage some righteous war with Israel.
Hamas's incursion was a Phyrric victory for them just as IDF's likely ground invasion will be as well. A bunch of folks will get killed, some accords will be signed, few dog and pony shows will follow and then most of the world will celebrate Christmas and Chinese New Year a couple months later and the world will move on to the next tragic news either man made or natural or both.

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Avi Dichter, a member of the Israeli security cabinet, tells ABC News that Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Gaza have a combined 50,000 fighters and that the Israeli military, which has mobilized more than 400,000 soldiers, has the "green light" to move into Gaza and begin its mission of "destroying Hamas."

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One of the officials said the missiles were fired by Iranian-backed Houthi militants, who are engaged in an ongoing conflict in Yemen. Approximately 2-3 missiles were intercepted, according to the second official.

The officials said it was unclear what the missiles were targeting. It’s possible the missiles were fired at the USS Carney or launched towards another target.

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SlothmanAllen said:

CNN is reporting that the USS Carney (DDG-64) US intercepted multiple missiles fired at it while it was near Yemen.

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