Israel attacks Gaza Strip

Finn McCool said:

This sucks for the US. Iraq is tying our hands. If Iran or Syria decides to intervene (although I don't know if Iran could do much other than fire ballistic missles at Israel, which may be an overreaction and would not pay) the US could do little because both of those countries could make Iraq even more of a hell for us. Plus, if we militarily aid Israel, Muslims everywhere, including Iraqis, would get really angry, increasing attacks on the US troops. The US would also lose the support it has from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. But I don't think US intervention is likely unless Iran really gets involved.

This is escalating out of control. I think that Israel could defuse this situation by negotiating for the soldiers. But that is unlikely. What is the latest word on Israeli reservist mobilizations? That is the most dangerous news I've heard during this whole thing. If Israel is really mobilizing its reservists en masse, it is going to do a massive operation, possibly invading Lebanon and deploying troops to the Golan Heights to threaten Damascus.

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If troops are deployed to threated Damascus, Syria and Iran are not going to sit back. Both countries hold the US hostage in Iraq. Both can really start to heat things up there if they wanted to...

If the Israelis start towards Damascus, Syria is not going to hesitate using it's WMD's...moving towards any country's capital is a full blown act of war and any country would be justified in doing whatever action to defend itself...just imagine if Arab armies were moving rapidly towards Tel Aviv...the Israelis would no doubt use nukes.

utelore said:

There is no doubt that the palestinians have better weapons than just a year ago. I have seen news clips of fighters armed with PG-7VR RPG round. I would bet money that the Kornet is in operation however I would not over state the capability of the Kornet it is just a ATGW that has had some limited success on the battlefield practically any ATGW worth their salt could punch through 3ft of concrete but punching through advanced composite armour is a little different.....

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Concrete is brittle. Even a simple artillery projectile can punch thru concrete easily. Modern ATGMs with Shaped-charge warhead create a jet of superheated copper slug that actually melts its way thru steel armour. The Kornet can also be used against helicopters.

Ok this is the way I see it.

1. Syria will in no way use ground forces against the Israeli army

2. It will supply Lebanese militia's with ATGM and SAM's

3. For the first time the Sunni muslim militia groups will join up
with the Shia muslim militia groups to take on Israel. They have a reserve
pool of at least 700 million people of military age.

3. It will allow the majority Sunni population of Syria as well as the hundreds
of millions of other Sunni's to cross into Lebanon.

4. They will soon be joined by the battle hardened Sunni insurgents from
Iraq and vice versa

5. The various kings and presidents for life of the Sunni majority states
will soon discover that their population now support shi'ite Iran and
Syria...something unheard of since the Abbasid revolution of Abu Muslim
which ended the Ummayads (actually it led to ALL of them being
wiped out by the Sunni and Shi'ite muslims)

6. Israel is going to be a side show...to the wider revolution in the muslim
world

7. America's allies are going to fall like ninepins depending on how Iran
plays it's hand

Well all of you have quite interesting theories but some of them are little blown out of proportion… Large scale Arab revolutions will newer happen, War won’t escalate in Islam vs. West conflict, Syria wont do shit to help Hezbollah and Lebanon against Israel (they would send troops in Lebanon but not to help Lebanese government but to create tampon zone like they did last time)… This situation isn’t any different then the one in 1980s and if it comes to invasion all participants will fallow same pattern as they did last time… And I personally don’t think that current fighting will escalate in open war…

Israel has best trained and equipped troops in the region and majority of them has some combat experience.

Iran can’t actively participate they can only provide some equipment and money to Hezbollah (like they are doing for years now), even they are not stupid enough to attack Israel whit WMD…

Syria has large armed forces but they have large amount of obsolete equipment and mediocre troops (ok they have small amount of modern weaponry and Special Forces are quite good but except them army isn’t any better then Iraqis in late 1990s…).

So there isn’t any opponent in the region that could stop IDF from doing what ever they decide to do… Only opposition will be guerilla forces and no matter what equipment they have they can’t defeat IDF…
IDF can’t tolerate constant attacks on Israeli civilian and military targets and if they decide that it is time to terminate that threat they will do this no matter what…
You are forgetting that Israeli soldiers live in bombarded areas, they have families in these areas and they won’t back of because they suffered some casualties…

As for Syrian WMD usage I doubt that they would use them, they didn’t use them last time IDF was only few dozen km from Damascus and they will not use them now…

Isthvan so you agree with everything except points 5, 6 & 7 ?

So in your estimation Israel will wipe out Hizbullah, the whole of the Sunni
resistance groups in Lebanon as well as perhaps the Sunni resistance
groups sent across the border with the blessings of the Syrian government ?

FreeAsia2000 said:

Isthvan so you agree with everything except points 5, 6 & 7 ?

So in your estimation Israel will wipe out Hizbullah, the whole of the Sunni
resistance groups in Lebanon as well as perhaps the Sunni resistance
groups sent across the border with the blessings of the Syrian government ?

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My point is that if situation escalate we could see basically the same thing we have seen in 1980s… Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon whit Syrian troops on other side and Hezbollah back to guerilla warfare… And that’s only if everything seriously goes to hell…

Syria will newer allow strong Sunni resistance groups because they don’t wont rerun of Iranian scenario in Syria. They will send troops not “Islamic warriors”. And these troops don’t like Hezbollah much more then Israelis do… They don’t care for Islamic brothers; they care only for Syrian strategic interests…

So yes Hezbollah will start guerilla warfare but let’s face it - they are no where near the level of Iraqi insurgency… Few anti-tank missiles and SAM’s wont change final outcome if IDF decides for full attack…
IDF won’t stop because they suffered few casualties, they won’t have ethical problems like US have in Iraq. They will destroy any resistance whit any means they can.

Israel wouldn’t attack Lebanon to bring freedom and democracy; they won’t try to win hearts and minds… If they cross border they are going to full scale bloody war whit all ugliness and brutality common to such actions. So yes they will kick ass to any guerilla movement Lebanese Arabs can organize…

So let’s hope that this situation won’t escalate because, like Popeye said, war is hell…

August 12, 2003
The Italian firm Galileo Avionica has launched a $220 million upgrade of 122 Syrian T-72 main battle tanks. Western intelligence sources said an Italian contractor has been upgrading Soviet-origin T-72 tanks for Syria's military. The $200 million contract signed by Galileo Avionica called for the upgrade of 122 T-72s. Galileo makes the TURMS-T computerized fire control system (which has been fitted to 30 Czech T-72CZs).

Galileo Avionica, owned by Finmeccanica, confirmed the 2001 deal but refused to provide details. The deal was delayed for a year under U.S. and Italian government pressure, along with financial difficulties. Galileo finally won approval for the project by arguing that it was defensive in nature and did not involve the export of lethal equipment. - Adam Geibel

isthvan said:

My point is that if situation escalate we could see basically the same thing we have seen in 1980s… Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon whit Syrian troops on other side and Hezbollah back to guerilla warfare… And that’s only if everything seriously goes to hell…

Syria will newer allow strong Sunni resistance groups because they don’t wont rerun of Iranian scenario in Syria. They will send troops not “Islamic warriors”. And these troops don’t like Hezbollah much more then Israelis do… They don’t care for Islamic brothers; they care only for Syrian strategic interests…

So yes Hezbollah will start guerilla warfare but let’s face it - they are no where near the level of Iraqi insurgency… Few anti-tank missiles and SAM’s wont change final outcome if IDF decides for full attack…
IDF won’t stop because they suffered few casualties, they won’t have ethical problems like US have in Iraq. They will destroy any resistance whit any means they can.

Israel wouldn’t attack Lebanon to bring freedom and democracy; they won’t try to win hearts and minds… If they cross border they are going to full scale bloody war whit all ugliness and brutality common to such actions. So yes they will kick ass to any guerilla movement Lebanese Arabs can organize…

So let’s hope that this situation won’t escalate because, like Popeye said, war is hell…

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Sorry what Iranian scenario in Syria ?

Syria's strategic interests is ensuring that Israel learns a lesson from it's 'adventures'..have you read 'Pity the Nation' by Robert Fisk ?


Regarding your comments about the Israeli Military not having the ethical conflicts that the US apparently has had in Iraq...an Israeli military officer speaking to Seymour Hersh said that they would never have gotten away with the stuff being done by the US military in Iraq.

I’ll tell you what an Israeli told me. And the Israelis as you know — a very tough, hard-nosed Israeli told me at one point, about all this — he said, you know, we hate the Arabs. This is a guy who spent his career in the intelligence service and, you know, his hands are bloody. He said, we hate the Arabs, and the Arabs hate us, and before 1948, we’ve been killing Arabs, and they’ve been killing us. But I have to tell you something, he said. We know somewhere down the line, we’re going to have to live with these people, much as we can’t stand them, they’re going to have to be our neighbors. And if we had done in our prisons to the Arabs what you have done to the Arabs in your prisons, we couldn’t live that way.

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But I digress you haven't answered my question ...I didn't ask if you believed the Israeli military could kick ass....I asked if you believed it could WIPE OUT hizbullah, the Sunni militia's in Lebanon, the millions of Sunni's around the Muslim world and ESPECIALLY in Syria who have been awakened by Iraq...

So answer the question...Do you believe it can WIPE them out ?

FreeAsia2000 said:

But I digress you haven't answered my question ...I didn't ask if you believed the Israeli military could kick ass....I asked if you believed it could WIPE OUT hizbullah, the Sunni militia's in Lebanon, the millions of Sunni's around the Muslim world and ESPECIALLY in Syria who have been awakened by Iraq...

So answer the question...Do you believe it can WIPE them out ?

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My point is that Assad won’t and can’t allow any kind of Islamic militia or volunteers in Syria nor will they allow them to go true Syria… Simple reason is, Assad is not a religious zealot, if he allows this he will lose power quite quickly and religious leaders will size control in Syria. This is what I meant whit Iranian scenario…

Syria will protect its interest’s whit its armed forces and not whit Arab volunteers… There will not be million Arabs march to Lebanon to help fight Israel… There will not be Islamic revolutions in Arab countries and Arab regimes will not tremble in fear and fall if they don’t help Hezbollah… They actually don’t give a shit for Palestine or Lebanon; they care for there one interests… And they showed this at numerous occasions.
There will be demonstrations, burning of Israeli flags, harsh rhetoric’s and usual crap but they will newer stand united against Israel, there is to much differences in Moslem world for that… If things would be different Israel would size to exist long time ago…
So forget “millions of Sunnis in Moslem world” scenario… They joust don’t care…

When I talked about ethics I meant that IDF will target any one who tray to stand in there way, they will attack militia, political and religious leader who stand in there way, they won’t make fuss about collateral damage, they won’t quit if they suffer casualties… This will be war not police action… They will use any available source and any available opportunity to destroy any one who stands against them…
And they won’t stand against millions of Arabs but against same opponent they always faced in Lebanon; Syria, Lebanese army and Hezbollah… And trust me Syria will be happy whit status quo, they know that they can’t win and they will simple occupy same territory in Lebanon they occupied in 1980s…

So do I believe IDF can completely wipe out militias in Lebanon? No… But they can kick their ass so severely that they will pose only insignificant threat to Israeli interests and security… And this is exactly what they want to accomplish…

The Syrians aren't stupid enough to fight the Israelis head on, but saying they won't help Hezbullah either isn't correct. Why would the Syrians have wasted all this money and energy into helping Hezbullah in Lebanon when it is just going to abandon it during a fight with Israel? It doesn't make much sense to simply abandon an ally when the s*it hits the fan. It's a proxy war against Israel and Israel isn't going to invade Damascus because of it (airstrikes yes, but only limited airstrikes). Remember, Syria's WMD's are a massive deterrent or else the Israelis would have already started bombing the hell out of Syria's military bases. Iran isn't going to sit back and watch it's group be bombed either. Both those countries probably knew one of the most likely places of a flashpoint between Israel and the Arab world will be Lebanon, not Palestine.

Utelore, you're a tanker so would you care to explain how threatning the upgraded T-72's would be against the Merkava 4? IMHO I don't think they would last too long...