Israel attacks Gaza Strip

So do I believe IDF can completely wipe out militias in Lebanon? No… But they can kick their ass so severely that they will pose only insignificant threat to Israeli interests and security… And this is exactly what they want to accomplish…

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Not even near I'm afraid. Did the huge bobming campaing dismatle Vietcong back in the 60's? HAve there ever been a case when insurgency is defeated with force? No. Israel might get some sort of temporarely victory in tactical means but it cannot do much about the hizbollah. This cambaing will only strenghten it in longer perspective, there is enough of relatives and closest of those civils already killed.

I don't believe that any sort of massive uprising in arab world would happen, but certainly there will be major boost for the support of islamic extremist. THere will be new terrorist attacks against Israel, Usa and it's allies. More blood, more pain and the circle will go on and on and on...

Perhaps I'm getting older in someways but this whole situation just makes me sad Anger is still buried inside but sadness is in the top. So sorry to drift this topic of the tracks but I really whis we wouldn't have to discuss over this matter...

About the upgraded T-72s vs Merkavas-It doesn't matter. Israel can destroy the T-72s with AH-64s or airplanes, they have total air superiority. They also control the Golan Heights, giving them a commanding artillery position, another way to deal with concentrations of armour without using Merkavas.

Hezbollah will not be defeated by bombing. Goll is right. They will not even be defeated by invading Lebanon. They can wage a guerilla war, with help from Syria. I think all that Israel can achieve from this whole incident on the Lebanese border is to halt rocket attacks temporarily and get the soldiers back. Israel cannot expect to destroy Hezbollah.

Well all of you have quite interesting theories but some of them are little blown out of proportion… Large scale Arab revolutions will newer happen, War won’t escalate in Islam vs. West conflict, Syria wont do shit to help Hezbollah and Lebanon against Israel

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Well Isthvan, I would not want to overstate the case, but look at the map. I am talking about my guess as to the Islamists strategy and whilst I doubt it will all happen tomorow, we are seeing some fairly new things these days.

The main one was that we used to be able to limit the number of bushires alight at any one time, we seem to have lost that ability these days as fires stubbornly refuse to go out, whilst others which we thought were out suddenly flare up again.

No I am sure that Isreal is not about to go storming towards Beirut or Damascus or the US head for Tehran. I do see a future of continuing unrest, with all the current fires staying lit and a succession of other provocations dragging the US and Isreal ever deeper into enemy territory. I doubt if these guys care how long the process takes, lets face it, they are not going anywhere.

Finn McCool said:

Hezbollah will not be defeated by bombing. Goll is right. They will not even be defeated by invading Lebanon. They can wage a guerilla war, with help from Syria. I think all that Israel can achieve from this whole incident on the Lebanese border is to halt rocket attacks temporarily and get the soldiers back. Israel cannot expect to destroy Hezbollah.

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Which is why I simply don't get what Israel is trying to achieve. Let's face these facts:

-Back during the first invasion of Lebanon, the Israelis weren't able to stop rocket fire into Israeli territory. As a matter of fact, more rockets were fired during the invasion of Lebanon into Israeli territory than before.

-No amount of bombing is going to help bring those soldiers back. Not in Gaza and definetely not in Lebanon. For all we know those soldiers are probably in another country somewhere (maybe in Syria or Iran).

-Hezbullah and Hamas won't break. To the contrary they will grow stronger as they will have more fresh recruits. A guerilla organization has never died out because of a bombing campaign.

-Starting a conflict with Syria isn't going to be the best choice. Iran and Syria have both signed defense treaties to help each other. But what's more dangerous that if Assad's government falls due to a failed conventional conflict with Israel, the Muslim Brotherhood (which is very popular in Syria) will take Assad's place. And as much as Israel hates Syria, they understand that the Baathists are much better to live with than a bunch of Islamists anyday.

The only thing Israel is accomplishing is destroying the infranstructure of Lebanon and Gaza. And that in turn will not be very helpful to any future peace talks...

I newer said that Israel will storm Beirut or Damascus, I joust said that we may see 1980 situation again and that only if all goes to hell… IMHO there can’t be any united Arab vs. Israel full scale war.

- Assad will never risk open war whit Israel because he can’t win and losing would mean end of his regime… He is not his father and like you said Islamic movement in Syria is getting stronger… But this movement still isn’t strong as in other countries in region; Syria is still more ore less secular state and Assad will newer start something that could increase popularity of that movement… Same thing whit other Moslem regimes; if they want to survive they can’t let Islamic clerics gain too much power. These are not democracies and they will do anything necessary to hold on power…

- Iran can support Hezbollah and Hamas financially and whit some equipment but they don’t have any ways to support them militarily. Ok they have large quantity of SCUD derivates but even Mahmoud Ahmadinejad isn’t stupid enough to attack Israel… Rhetoric’s are nice but real deal is something else…

- IDF wont stop because they lose few soldiers they know that they don’t have any other options. They understand culture, they know opponents, they have quite capable intelligence and they have weapons to achieve there tasks… Look at Iraq, insurgents mostly target Iraqis and US casualty rate is quite low… Same thing is happening in Afghanistan. So Israel will rather have few soldiers killed then constant bombardment on Israeli cities…

What is Israel doing currently? Quite simple they are demonstrating force… At this point this isn’t prelude to full scale invasion but rather reminder to Hamas and Lebanese government what they can do… “Put your dog on shorter leash or we will shoot him” and your entire economy and infrastructure will be destroyed to…
So again I don’t currently see possibility of full scale escalation, this is joust Hamas fundraising operation and Hezbollah is scoring few points attacking infidels…
And I sincerely hope that this won’t escalate in full scale invasion because this would bring only more unnecessary suffering to Lebanese people…

Ps. sorry for late edit, but this is interesting.... This isn’t best example of Muslim unity don’t you think?

Isthvan, the Saudis, Egyptians, and Jordans are heavily pro-American.:roll: They don't want to say anything that's anti-American or anti-Israeli. Neutral countries like Pakistan and Turkey haven't commented on this yet...

crazyinsane105 said:

Isthvan, the Saudis, Egyptians, and Jordans are heavily pro-American.:roll: They don't want to say anything that's anti-American or anti-Israeli. Neutral countries like Pakistan and Turkey haven't commented on this yet...

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Yes they are quite pro US but Saudis are also quite anti Iranian… And they were newer pro Israeli. Or is only opinion that matters the one in Syria and Iran? Also I would be quite surprised if Turkey wouldn’t have same view at this as Saudis…

isthvan said:

Yes they are quite pro US but Saudis are also quite anti Iranian… And they were newer pro Israeli. Or is only opinion that matters the one in Syria and Iran? Also I would be quite surprised if Turkey wouldn’t have same view at this as Saudis…

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Yeah, Turkey isn't fond at all of the Syrians or most of the Arab world in general. They never forgot what the Arabs did to them during the ending days of the Ottoman Empire...but they haven't commented on it though. Well, at least to my knowledge they haven't. As for the Saudis, yeah, they are anti-Israeli (it's Saudi money and weapons that are helping Hamas right now). But they still are pretty pro-American at the same time. It's weird...

I am sure if you threaten that dentist/dictator in Syria with the loss of his air conditioner.....meaning you tell him we (Israel) are going to start blowing up their power plants, roadways, airports and infrastructure I think you will see Syria start changing its tune and put some pressure on Hizbullah to stop. If that does not work well its back to my total war theory that did work during WW2 and in other conflicts were political correctness was not used. IF YOU KILL ENOUGH OF THEM THEY WILL STOP FIGHTING. IF YOU KILL THEM ALL THEN YOU NEED NOT WORRY ANY MORE....CHEERS UTE.

utelore said:

I am sure if you threaten that dentist/dictator in Syria with the loss of his air conditioner.....meaning you tell him we (Israel) are going to start blowing up their power plants, roadways, airports and infrastructure I think you will see Syria start changing its tune and put some pressure on Hizbullah to stop. If that does not work well its back to my total war theory that did work during WW2 and in other conflicts were political correctness was not used. IF YOU KILL ENOUGH OF THEM THEY WILL STOP FIGHTING. IF YOU KILL THEM ALL THEN YOU NEED NOT WORRY ANY MORE....CHEERS UTE.

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Then Israel would face a massive Scud storm in response...if it were that easy to get Syria AND Iran to stop supporting Hezbullah and Hamas, Israel would have started to hit Syria yesterday...