ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

On the other hand the Kurds, Christians, and Jews can let or help the two camps wear each other out.
Problem is Isis Delivers. In Syria they raided and attacked the homes and villages of Kurds, Burned Synagogues and Churches. Simply letting them wear each other out is not a option because they hunt. And If Iran establishes Hegemony, There Religious Police will do the same. It's not like they have a "Safe Zone" or Real escape route.

I agree with your point regarding Turkey.

If "leading from behind" means fewer risks, less expenses and less debt, less casualties, and letting other countries deal with their own problems then it sounds good for the US.
The problem is leading form behind is the First to Cut and run. It may seem the best option now but this is a brush fire. and it will continue to spread. Leading form behind is how this became what it is.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Will we now see an Iranian intervention?
They already are.

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Wall Street Juornal said:
BEIRUT—The threat of Sunni extremists eclipsing the power of its Shiite-dominated Arab ally presents Iran with the biggest security and strategic challenge it has faced since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

With the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, an offshoot of al Qaeda, rapidly gaining territory, Iran deployed Revolutionary Guards units to Iraq, according to Iranian security officials.

Iran has invested considerable financial, political and military resources over the past decade to ensure Iraq emerged from U.S. war as a strategic partner for the Islamic Republic and a strong Shiite-led state. The so-called Shiite crescent—stretching from Iran to Iraq, Lebanon and Syria—was forged largely as a result of this effort.

Two Guards' units, dispatched from Iran's western border provinces on Wednesday, were tasked with protecting Baghdad and the holy Shiite cities of Karbala and Najaf, these security sources said.

Iraq's military was trained and equipped by the U.S. and coalition forces. When attacked by insurgents in several cities this week, Iraqi soldiers surrendered without a fight. What went wrong? What is the U.S. prepared to do? WSJ's Jason Bellini has #TheShortAnswer.

The involvement of Iran would pose yet another security challenge for the White House, and raises the prospect of the U.S. and Iran fighting on the same side. The U.S. opposes Iran's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but with Tehran is jointly supporting Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

State Department officials on Thursday refused to outline what steps the Obama administration would take if Iranian forces entered Iraq.

Spokeswoman Jen Psaki said American diplomats who met with Iranian officials in Geneva this week to discuss Tehran's nuclear program didn't raise the issue of the Iraqi crisis.

"We've encouraged them to play a constructive role in Iraq," Ms. Psaki said about the Iranians.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, reached by phone in London, said of the report that Iran's Revolutionary Guards were entering the fight: "Frankly I have no idea about that. I am in London now."

Syria's conflict has turned Iraq into an important operational base for Iran to aid another ally, the Assad regime, which is dominated by an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Shiite militia trained by Iran, weapons and cash have flowed from Iran to Syria via Iraq.

"Iraq is viewed as a vital priority in Iran's foreign policy in the region and they go to any length to protect this interest," said Roozbeh Miribrahimi, an independent Iran expert based in New York.
 
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kwaigonegin

Colonel
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

This is about the 3rd time I have responded to this. But what the hay...the more the merrier...and clearly my intial post was not as clear as it should have been.

But I did I indicate in that post that Iran might try to coopt the ISIS activities...that does not mean they would join them and be friends.

I realize they are at each others throats and I understand the theological reasons within Islam between the Shias and Sunnis for that to be so. Iran is predominantly Shia and has its own visions of Islam's spread. It supports many terror groups in their fight against the west. It is the largest state sponsor of such activities.

Most of Islam is however Sunni and some of the really radical segments of it make up many terrorists groups. That does not mean that the fundamental Shias are our friends...but it does mean that they can be a part of the solution in fighting and stopping the even more radical ISIS in Iraq.

As it is, Iran has now moved into Iraq with two battaions of its Qud forces and are apparently involved with taking on the ISIS in Tikriet.

This is perfectly understandable that Iran would seek to become involved in this. They want to improve their stake and reputation in the entire area. I believe the PM of Iraq has always had a strong affinity to Iran and this is the opportunity to make the most of it.

I would like to see Turkey get involved and come in to help with Mosul. Not to claim territory for Turkey, but to enhance its position in the overall Mid East, and as a needed counterbalance, IMHO, to Iran. As I stated, it would also dovetail with Obama's lead from behind strategy.

Turkey is a NATO ally and is more aligned with the Mid East position that is a counter wieght to Iran. It would not be in Turkey's or the US's or NATO's best interst for Iran to come in and be the only heavy weight stopping the ISIS.

Anyhow, that is how I see it.

much better.. LOL I agree that there definitely needs to be a counterbalance because of the power vacuum that exist and the instability there however the last thing we want also is for Turkey and Iran to fight some sort of proxy war on Iraqi soil with ISIS, Hezbollah and AQ fighters all jumping into the fray for fun... and you just know that the Kurds will also be involve if that happens.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

I agree that there definitely needs to be a counterbalance because of the power vacuum that exist and the instability there however the last thing we want also is for Turkey and Iran to fight some sort of proxy war on Iraqi soil with ISIS, Hezbollah and AQ fighters all jumping into the fray for fun... and you just know that the Kurds will also be involve if that happens.
I think Turkey would have to come in and publically state...as would Iran...that they are doing this to "help" Iraq...to keep it stable and save life.

If they were able to do that, and not fight each other, both would end up upping their gravitas in the region.

Overall, Iraq could remain the same...but I think there is no doubt, with their current PM, that they are going to gravitate torwards Iran. Too late to prevent that in any case.

Turkey's help in the intervention would keep that from going completely overboard and help Turkey's interests...and by extension NATOs.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

ISIS fighters are moving close tO Baghdad. If Baghdad falls we're talking a whole new round of flustercluck!!

Looks like they're going to move a 2nd carrier to the Gulf.

Possibly Truman and Ike that'll be stationed in that region for the time being.

Wow...didn't one of them just got back recently?
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

The current ISIS offensive is reminiscent of the Islamic Courts offensive in Somalia, and of the AQIM offensive in Mali. In each of the previous cases, a foreign military intervention was required to route the Islamists: Ethiopia in Somalia, and France in Mali.

Will we now see an Iranian intervention?

Shoot not only that, I can see a stronger Kurdish independent movement into carving Iraq as there own sovereign nation.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Shoot not only that, I can see a stronger Kurdish independent movement into carving Iraq as there own sovereign nation.

Yes, at this point, the partitioning of Iraq seems very likely, and this would actually be the best case scenario. The worst case would be a failed state like Somalia (which is very much like Iraq's current state).
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Shoot not only that, I can see a stronger Kurdish independent movement into carving Iraq as there own sovereign nation.

That's nothing new. Kurdistan once existed as a independent nation it's boarders containing parts of modern Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey and Armenia. They were absorbed into the Ottoman empire until it's fall in world war one. with the redrawing of the boarders post World war one Kurdistan was carved up like a turkey dinner. now since about the Gulf war the Kurds have more or less operated as a indepent region. after OIF, the Kurds under American Administration were given even more freedom of Autonomy but they operated as Symbiont with the state of Iraq. the Kurds governed and maintained security of there areas, the state left them alone in exchange the Kurds who happen to have a very effective military force given them by the US, Operated on behalf of Iraqi state by Sharing oil wealth, Taxes and maintained order to prevent violence between the groups. Now the Kurds in Iraq have been supporting the Syrian Kurds to a degree but the two groups are ruled by different nationalist parties.
Kurds in Turkey have had a rougher time as they have wanted a independent Kurdistan more then the others but Turkey is not willing to allow that because the lion's share of traditional Kurdistan sits in Turkey. If any power would put it's foot down and fight a independent Kurd state it's Turkey.

Iran also has parts of Kurdistan particularly along it's boarder with Iraq. they would also fight hard to prevent a Kurdish state.
In Syria the Kurds are already fighting for there lives.
Armenia would likely lose the least only part of there border territory's
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Not too long ago the Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan recently even used the term “Kurdistan” to refer to the predominantly Kurdish Turkish territories. In a bureaucratic sense the Iraqi Kurds are almost governing themselves in present day Iraq. On the other hand the Kurds in Turkey are in constant negotiations with the Turkish state in hopes to increase their ruling capacity.

If the Kurd try a shot at independence there will be several hurdles to jump, however two are prominent. The first is economic and the second is recognition. Even though the Kurds want their own state they will need the capacity to finance themselves. Perhaps the oil and gas market will certainly be a satisfactory income level for a small Kurdish state. In terms of economic viability. That still leaves all the impoverished Kurdish groups that are in Turkey and northern Syria.

The second big issue is recognition. Who will recognize a Kurdish state's declaration of independence? The idea of an independent Kurdish state is still not popular especially in Turkey. However what is interesting is that the Turks have been losing to nationalistic uprisings since the early 19th century. After such a long series of past failures and traumas, it is interesting to see the Turks still fail to understand the dynamics of nationalistic unrest.
 
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delft

Brigadier
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

From the Reuters story:
"We can work with Americans to end the insurgency in the Middle East," the official said, referring to events in Iraq.
"We are very influential in Iraq, Syria and many other countries."
He was also referring to Syria, he mentioned it, but Reuters was wearing blinkers, perhaps to please Washington.

And Iran is of course also talking to Turkey.
 
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