ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

I think Iran has the ability to meet and even exceed Turkey conventionally, to say nothing of what Russia is capable of. While Turkey's lost at least 6 confirmed drones in Syria, it's also lost about as many in Libya recently. That's a pretty big drone force already lost but they have also done their share of damage too.

I feel that Russia is really playing this delicately because of the potential deals from Turkey and there's always the chance getting too aggressive with Turkey will eventually lead to Erdogan's "dismissal" from government in whatever form. At the moment, Erdogan is the poison of choice for Russia and is still a pliable political figure for Moscow. Russia's stance on these sorts of issues have everything to do with the US and NATO. Turkey and Bosporus is just too important to risk having a US friendly political leadership. Luckily for Russia, Erdogan still has a personal gripe with the US and Turkey, as involved as it is in Syria now, isn't exactly behaving as bad as it could be for Russia.

plawolf said:

If the Turks are absolutely kurbstomping the Syrians like their supporters are bragging about, why are they unleashing a flood of Syrian refugees on the EU?

You have to be the biggest fool around if you think there won’t be serious consequences for Turkey for doing that, especially now with many EU member states desperately battling Coronavirus.

Do Turkish cheerleaders really think their leader and government is so spiteful as to risk serious fallout from the EU just to pay back NATO for not supporting them on their naked land grab in Syria; or do you think it more likely that despite Turkish bluster, things are not going as swimmingly for them as their rhetoric would suggest?

This wasn’t the first time Turkish troops have been killed by Syrian air strikes, where was the vaunted Turkish airforce when their troops where being bombed by the Syrian bloodily airforce? I mean they barely have an Air Force at all. If you cannot defend your troops against a vastly outnumbered opponent flying antiquated museum pieces with no credible air superiority capabilities to write home about, god help you if you get into a tangle with a good one.

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The cheerleaders don't care for the truth. Otherwise how else could the CCP have murdered 10 million make belief Uighurs? and forcefully imprisoned a billion more? lol what were the fantasy numbers again?

This conflict is a mess. The less involved uninvolved groups are, the better for those groups. That includes anyone who isn't Assad, Syria, Turkey, Russia, Israel, USA, and Iran. Just don't get involved. Don't support a side, don't cheer, don't fanboy. Leave it. If some people wish to go to war over whatever troubles them, that's their choice and their prices to pay. I'm not too familiar with the multiple layers of struggle and contention that has accumulated into what the Syrian conflict is today. It's Chinese whispers at this stage. Just millennia old tribal and ideological conflicts brewing and erupting at various times in history. Some will say apathy and fencesitting is weakness and in many cases it is but why would those who have nothing to gain and nothing to lose, sacrifice their sanity for a soap opera, Korean drama piece of chaos.

Do find those cheerleaders funny though. They talk like they've taken down a US carrier sometimes.

ougoah said:

I think Iran has the ability to meet and even exceed Turkey conventionally ...

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On what grounds to you base such a claim?

nlalyst said:

On what grounds to you base such a claim?

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Just a personal opinion because I think with the sheer volume of offensive weapons Iran has amassed and demonstrated on US targets, they could cripple Turkey's ability to conduct war in Syria, much less on Iran. Turkey's airforce seems to be significantly better than Iran's but it's range of operation isn't far if the storages and airfields are gone. Turkey of course can try to respond in kind but I'm not aware of any Turkish offensive weapons save for some ancient SRBM/IRBM and MLRS. Can they navigate the moutainous terrain that is Iran? What cruise missiles have Turkey got that is greater than 300km and isn't air launched yet still less than 300km range. Iran's recently demonstrated some unexpected very long range offensive capability.

Turkey has not got S-400 or PAC-3 or Patriots. It's air defence isn't quite as capable as Iran's, at least on paper. But then since paper's all we've got to go on, Iran may have the ability to intercept Turkish attempts at hitting strategic targets with ballistic and cruise missiles. All Turkey's got is the airforce angle.

But I'm open to why Turkey may be conventionally superior to Iran if a direct conflict were to start... although I fear that's outside the forum rules of no X vs Y.

I think there is a lot of bluster coming from Ankara
Ultimately, there are too many Russians and Iranians, intermixed with the SAA on the ground to risk an all out assault on Syrian Government forces.
Plus today the Russian Airforce is busy over Idlib and the SAA have retaken Saraqib and some areas in Southern Idlib lost yesterday.

I suspect that much of what Turkey is saying is to build up for the meeting with Putin on Weds (I think?) in order to make a "generous and magnanimous" gesture .

The truth is Turkey is isolated. When it asked NATO for help, the other members all pulled out Crucifixes and Garlic to ward them off!

SampanViking said:

... the meeting with Putin ...

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27 minutes ago