ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Spin doctoring! that rich coming from the man who speaks in riddles and provides endless links without clear supporting commentary.

My line is very clear - ISIS abandoned Deir Hafir by the 23rd of May, which had been deemed a stronghold of the Al Bab variety.
If you can prove a military presence by ISIS in the town after that date (excluding a possible suicide squad left to detonate all the explosives) I will happily retract.
All I see however is a town fully enveloped after the 23rd and with only talk of extensive demining taking place for the next six days, until the SAA's formal entry on the 29th.

Nothing I have seen or read indicates the presence of ISIS fighters, conflict, storming or prisoner taking in Deir Hafir at any time after the 23rd March or any reports on the occupation of the 29th being contested by remaining fighters.

All maps show Deir Hafir being totally enveloped by the SAA front line that continued to push East, so if ISIS was still in the town between the 23rd and 29th, what happened to them and how did they get out without firefight or detection?

Needless to say, if anyone else does have information that shows, that I have missed, misunderstood or otherwise got the the wrong end of the stick on this issue, I would be grateful to them for sharing.

It is interesting though to speculate what the rebel offensive in Hama has all been about.
I am pretty sure that the key is in the recent pronouncements by Erdogan who is now the official patron of the FSA just as the US is for the SDF and Russia is for the SAA.

I see it as no coincidence that this all kicked off, just a soon as it became obvious that Euphrates Shield had been effectively closed down. It did seem strange that even under those circumstances, that Erdogan was still talking about going to Raqqa.

So what are/were the objectives of the rebel offensive?

1) The City of Hama - pretty clear on that one, the capture of a major city in the center of the country is clearly essential to keeping the Revolt alive.

2) Cut the supply link to Aleppo - Aleppo remains the key prize of the North of the country and the narrow stretch of the Salamayiah highway remains the key weakspot of that supply route. Just as the SAA will now seek to widen and secure that route, the rebels will be keen to redouble efforts to cut it.

3) Regain a long contact line with ISIS held territory. - This is I believe the real top priority of this offensive.
By taking Hama and moving East to cut the Supply route highway, the rebels would re-establish a long contact line with ISIS held territory in Eastern Hama. In fact they would gain the very road that the Tigers used to raid towrds Tabaqa last year (in that very strange operation!). This is I believe what Erdogan sees as the last viable route to get to Raqqa and the rebel forces would be able to take advantage of the ongoing ISIS collapse, to move quickly and occupy large swathes of central and Eastern Syria.
I do see a very clear logic in Erdogan seeking to exploit real sectarian fears of those living in ISIS controlled areas. In short, that Erdogan and his Muslim Brotherhood FSA would present as the Sunni saviours of the largely Sunni population of the Euphrates vallet, to save them from the undoubted predations of the Shia SAA/Iranian and Hezbollah forces of the Syrian Government and the vengeful Kurds of the SDF.

With that in mind, I must confess that the offensive becomes potentially far more serious than I originally gave it credence for. My original reaction was to dismiss it as a last ditch, battle of the bulge and general act of desperation, not dissimilar to the rebel attempts last year to break the Government siege of Aleppo.

Needless to say, once the rebel offensive is fully contained, I have no doubt that the rapid expansion East from East Hama towards Tabaqa and Raqqa, plus a pincer movement south through the Masakanah plains, is exactly what the SAA is now planning to do.

Week old news by now, I'm surprised no one posted about this.

Clearly those interested in the partitioning of Syria are prevailing for now over those interested in continued widespread conflict and anarchy there. Relatively good development for civilians.

WORLD NEWS | Wed Mar 29, 2017 | 4:46pm EDT
Turkey ends 'Shield' military operation in Syria, PM says

Turkey has ended the "Euphrates Shield" military operation it launched in Syria last August, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Wednesday, but suggested there might be more cross-border campaigns to come.

Turkey sent troops, tanks and warplanes to support Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, push Islamic State fighters away from its border and stop the advance of Kurdish militia fighters.

"Operation Euphrates Shield has been successful and is finished. Any operation following this one will have a different name," Yildirim said in an interview with broadcaster NTV.

Under Euphrates Shield, Turkey took the border town of Jarablus on the Euphrates river, cleared Islamic State fighters from a roughly 100-km (60-mile) stretch of the border, then moved south to al-Bab, an Islamic State stronghold where Yildirim said "everything is under control".

Turkish troops are still stationed in the secured regions and along the border. The number of Turkish troops involved in Euphrates Shield has not been disclosed.

One aim was to stop the Kurdish YPG militia from crossing the Euphrates westwards and linking up three mainly Kurdish cantons it holds in northern Syria.

Turkey fears the Syrian Kurds carving out a self-governing territory analogous to Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region, a move that might embolden Turkey's own large Kurdish minority to try to forge a similar territory inside its borders.

It views the YPG as the Syrian extension of the Kurdish PKK militant group, which has fought an insurgency in Turkey's southeast since 1984 and is considered a terrorist group by both the United States and European Union.

With the second largest army in NATO, Turkey is seeking a role for its military in a planned offensive on Raqqa, one of Islamic State's two de facto capitals along with Mosul in Iraq -but the United States is veering toward enlisting the YPG.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has said Turkey is saddened by the U.S. and Russian readiness to work with the YPG in Syria.

(Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu; editing by Andrew Roche)

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Russia deploys more Italian-made Iveco LMV tactical vehicles to Syria

SampanViking said:

All maps show Deir Hafir being totally enveloped by the SAA front line that continued to push East, so if ISIS was still in the town between the 23rd and 29th, what happened to them and how did they get out without firefight or detection?

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By underground tunnels or by blending in with the locals.

PanAsian said:

Week old news by now, I'm surprised no one posted about this.

Clearly those interested in the partitioning of Syria are prevailing for now over those interested in continued widespread conflict and anarchy there. Relatively good development for civilians.

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Click to expand...

The "shield" was over when SAA reached euphrates river and replaced the Kurds facing the Turks.

What remains to be seen is what will happen to the greens east of Alepo and what the Turks will do with them.

I guess the winner of the whole crisis will be the Kurds, more and real rights and influence in post-war Syria, either through autonomy or outright break-away (less likely and not in the near term but possible, see what happened in Iraq). That would not only be the headache of Syria or Iraq, but also Turkey, something Erdogan missed of considering when he stepped in to overthrow the one government who share the same interest.

I do sincerely hope that the Syrian government and the Kurds can settle down on the terms that all Syrians being equal in the country instead of a breakup. A breakup will only make Syria (what is left) weak and Kurds being surrounded by suspicious countries (Iraq, Iran and Syria) and hostile Turkey.

Many accusations against Syria about a "suspected chemical attack" against a town in Idlib but even the BBC main foreign correspondent Lyse Doucet doesn't believe it. Even so BBC propaganda continues. What advantage could there be for Syria to use chemical weapons?

SampanViking said:

Spin doctoring! ...

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Revealed: How Isis turns normal towns and villages into theatres and factories of death

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"The Syrian soldiers in this dust-covered, rubbelised town don’t smile very much and their battle fatigue is obvious. ... But in Deir Hafer, these Syrian soldiers are lucky. Twelve hours ago, their Isis enemies – rather than fighting to the death -- suddenly fled for their lives. ... The Syrian soldiers were amazed. They had fought the cruellest army in the world and they had won. ..." EDIT I highlighted Deir Hafer

says 4 days ago (Friday 31 March 2017 22:54 BST) ... minus the above twelve hours minus the time for to get there ... makes it consistent with
Mar 29, 2017
info:

Jura said:

In Pictures: Syrian Army enters Deir Hafer for the first time

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By

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-
29/03/2017

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see? In Pictures: Syrian Army enters Deir Hafer for the first time

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By

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-
29/03/2017


as I told you, you posted bunk
#5170 SampanViking, Mar 23, 2017

SampanViking said:

Despite pressure around Damascus (which seems to be now contained) and around Hama (which is now being stopped and reversed), The big news of the day must be the SAA taking the town on Deir Hafer in East Aleppo, which they took without needing to storm, after they launched a lighting flanking move south and West that successfully encircled the town.
It seems that ISIS legged it before the trap was fully set.

The capture of Deir Hafer is big news!

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see?
The capture of Deir Hafer is big news!

dated 23/03/2017

(LOL you now may make my day by saying was there earlier than 29/03/2017
In Pictures: Syrian Army enters Deir Hafer for the first time

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article appeared, go ahead!)

(actually "Cassad" wrote a blog containing that bunk 2017-03-23

(you may just want to look at the first map, 'Dayr Hafir' shown in red)
and only 2017-03-30
in an unrelated blog

he said ... if you want, translate 'PS' sentence from that blog)

"edmaps" used to be posted here, so in between March 23 and March 29 is ...
Battle for the Dayr Hafir-Maskanah area as of March 25, 2017 (4 p.m.)

instead of for example acknowledging the two articles

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   dated 23/03/2017;
2. Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
   dated 29/03/2017

couldn't be both true, you DOUBLE DOWN Yesterday at 12:03 AM
so, as I said in the post right after, it's "all in", now all chips, all cards are on the table:
you posted about "The capture of Deir Hafer" 23/03/2017, and I told you this was bunk
SampanViking?

To be honest I have remarkably little sympathy for the kind of Parlour games you seem intent on playing on this subject.

The key point is that Deir Hafir has been retaken by the Government and; despite being a garrison stronghold , as was Al-Bab, retaken quickly and with very minimal fighting certainly, by comparison with Al-Bab.

For some reason, best known to your self Jura, you have chosen to question the course of event by which the town was retaken and done so in a highly personalised and confrontational manner.

To question the official narrative (which I have repeated) is fine - to accuse me of disseminating bunk is not.

So step by step:



The key passage from this report dated 23rd March

ISIS terrorists withdrew from Deir Hafer prior to being fully encircled this morning.

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Do you or do you not agree with this statement?

SampanViking said:

...



Do you or do you not agree with this statement?

Click to expand...

the game is over, call it:

instead of for example acknowledging the two articles

1. Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
   dated 23/03/2017;
2. Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
   dated 29/03/2017

couldn't be both true, you DOUBLE DOWN Yesterday at 12:03 AM
so, as I said in the post right after, it's "all in", now all chips, all cards are on the table:
you posted about "The capture of Deir Hafer" 23/03/2017, and I told you this was bunk
SampanViking?