ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Yesterday at 9:52 PM

Jura said:

... Government got to the area south to Arzeh, but I admit I didn't even know anti-Government forces had been there (approximated by the blue dotted line below):

...

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now noticed sources following both sides said Government took over Arzeh today

Jura said:

...
let's wait and see if now Government gains the initiative ... or the lines become "static" ... or anti-Government forces regroup and ...

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I see it's still possible to use this map from
Wednesday at 9:52 PM
:

Jura said:

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but just to tell you anti-Government forces today lost the area marked by the blue line (more or less; Government got into Khattab (middle-top if the above map) and Majdal (top-left), according to various sources)

now I found out "A7_Mirza" had already put this news into the map (it's )

and I guess other mappers will soon follow

since it seems the tide is turning in north-to-Hama area, I added to the above map (originally from Monday at 9:01 PM) two features:

#1
one more area where anti-Government forces had been (but I didn't notice at that time; it's in the southernmost part of the protrusion towards the town of Hama, marked by the blue dotted line now), and

#2
the arrow in blue marking likely the most dangerous attack Saturday at 5:49 PM

Jura said:

...
to take over Qimhanah; I kinda assumed it had been entered from north, while according to the geolocation I saw in Twitter of a combat video it was from west towards its southern part (?!), anyway the defenders were ready:

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actually I later read anti-Government forces inside Qomhana had gotten into, ironically, Cemetery (marked in the map below) where they intended to consolidate (and go through residential parts of the village):

(the major road (most to the right) is "M5": Damascus - Aleppo, before the war of course)

Interesting that the thread goes quiet, just as matters start to hot up!

Just a short note from me, simply to say that my guess is that Aleppo and environs remains the key objective of the Syrian Government and allies and that the focus will now switch to widening and securing the supply corridor north of Hama.

Talk of a rush to Raqqa or Idlib is just misdirection. I expect most SAA operations to follow the course of least resistance as they push the safe corridor both East ans West. The current North Hama operation, is I am confident, morphing into such an operation and will soon include moves against ISIS territory to the East. Likewise any new push south into the Marakhah plains, between Lakke Jabbal and the Euphrates will be to also widen the safe corridor rather than be a headlong rush to Raqqa.

SampanViking said:

Interesting that the thread goes quiet, ...

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just one question
SampanViking
do you know you posted bunk Mar 23, 2017
and do you know I told you Mar 24, 2017
and Wednesday at 9:52 PM
you had posted bunk?
you know, I try to check what side is in what village, then I try to cross-check (yes, that's my hobby) ... sometimes I realize the info I posted was incorrect, so I say that later ... but after I had seen your alternative facts LEFT HERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER COMMENT, I asked myself a question What. Am. I. Doing. Here.
I mean I don't care what "predictions" you're making (like what you said in the rest of your post), but once you say something specific and it turns out to be patently wrong, I would expect you to address this again, simply because you're a Moderator (from a regular Member, I would only expect s/he doesn't go after me, something which is not always guaranteed

***
it appears since Friday at 11:50 AM
Government gained the area between the red and blue lines (of course approximate) in the map below; reportedly the next targets are Suran (to the west, in the red ellipse) and Halfaya (to the east, also in the red ellipse, and north to the line shown in yellow, which approximately shows the positions as of let's say March 20):


by the way the first time I used the same "template" Mar 25, 2017 the situation looked like this

Jura said:

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EDIT
three more maps:

one, from totally pro-Government Twitter account



two, from non-Government source which didn't concede Government got into the area around



three, "miladvisor" (it's )

while posting the above news from north-to-Hama area, I was unaware of the related blog by "Cassad"

with additional maps and several videos (from both sides)

Still no idea what your point is or what you are calling bunk?

Deir Hafir had been abandoned by ISIS, even though the town had been mined to blow and needed the sappers to make it safe before being entered. That was the official line of the time and I am not aware of any source contradicting it. The town is now far behind the front line and there was no further fighting when the SAA finally entered in, which I would say is total corroboration of that account. Or do you have something to contradict this?

Hama - The Islamist advance had been checked and effectively stopped (cannot say if they took any further points from the SAA from that time, but certainly no more towns have fallen since that time, after an initial lighting advance and the initiative and momentum had already been lost). The majority of the ground lost by the SAA has now been retaken in a counter offensive over the last 10 days. My words were "stopped and starting to reverse" I stand by them.

Damascus - The Insurgents counter offensive has made no lasting gains and they have already lost all the temporary gains and lost further territory in addition.

My previous "prediction" was that the East Aleppo op was about blocking the Turks and achieving water security and a more secure supply line for Aleppo - which is of course, exactly what happened and why the assault on Deir Hafir was one of the last acts of the operation and not the first. (as you would want to do if racing for Tabaqa and Raqqa)

So again, what exactly are you calling bunk?

SampanViking said:

...

So again, what exactly are you calling bunk?

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bunk highlighted inside
#5170 SampanViking, Mar 23, 2017
:

SampanViking said:

The capture of Deir Hafer is big news!

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because of the info from
#5190 Jura, Wednesday at 9:52 PM
quoted below:

Jura said:

In Pictures: Syrian Army enters Deir Hafer for the first time

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By

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-
29/03/2017

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in other words, after I had quoted you Mar 24, 2017

Jura said:

SampanViking
do you have a video and/or pictures of some major urban or terrain features of

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after Yesterday at 7:22 PM
?

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were you, or were you not, able to provide the info I had asked about?

and in yet another words, a summary for world to see: you called "big news" what's happened six days later (not reacting then, neither five days earlier after I had quoted you for the first time)

Sorry Jura, but that is bunk!

Its very clear what happened. Deir Hafir fell, when ISIS abandoned it, which occurred on the 23rd. If you are upset that the SAA failed to waltz into a massive ISIS booby trap and allow themselves to be blown to kingdom come, that is through no fault or omission of mine.

Do you or do you not concede that the manned presence of ISIS in the town ended on March 23rd?

my first reaction was to address this diversion of yours:

SampanViking said:

Sorry Jura, but that is bunk!

Its very clear what happened. Deir Hafir fell, when ISIS abandoned it, which occurred on the 23rd. If you are upset that the SAA failed to waltz into a massive ISIS booby trap and allow themselves to be blown to kingdom come, that is through no fault or omission of mine.

Do you or do you not concede that the manned presence of ISIS in the town ended on March 23rd?

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as Yesterday at 11:24 PM

Jura said:

... after I had quoted you Mar 24, 2017
were you, or were you not, able to provide the info I had asked about?
...

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, then again give you Wednesday at 9:52 PM
"ISIS militants were entirely besieged in their heartland after all their attempts – including their favorite tactic of sending VBIEDs – have failed to curb the Army’s advance." (quote from the only source you've been quoting here as far as I recall)

but no, it's all apparent (anybody who cares may reconstruct this conversation), and it was "all in", so now (in order to enjoy my time on the SDF) I quit here, as it would be meaningless to keep doing what I do, which is following the campaign in certain area, as you're able to spin-doctor anything
cheers