ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

delft

Brigadier
From Robert Fisk, one of the two good journalists at The Independent:
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Tanks, suicide bombs and bayonets: On the front line in the battles around Damascus
Endgames: inside Syria and Iraq In the first in a series of exclusive dispatches from the crucible of war, Robert Fisk reports from Syria’s capital, where regime soldiers are fighting hand to hand with opposition fighters

The soldier was grinning, his wounds bandaged but blood still on his hands. He had the weary, cynical, joyful eyes of a man who had survived. Gunfire cracked around the little concrete hut in which he talked, outgoing mortars and a tank that blazed away into Jobar every few minutes from an outcrop of the Qassioun mountain.

“They came in their hundreds,” he said. “They came in suicide cars and when we tried to rocket them, they came out of tunnels under the ground.” There were, said his comrades, maybe four thousand in all. Jabhat al-Nusra, of course, one of the brand names of al-Qaeda that now dominate the rebel forces in the area. And then another soldier said something strange. “They talked in classical Arabic.”

But yes of course they would, wouldn’t they? A literary language, the language of the Quran. The wounded soldier repeated this. “They shouted Allah Akbar, over and over again. Yes we’ve talked about it among ourselves, what makes these people fight, this Wahabi-Salafist ideology. We had to fight so close that one of us had to use a bayonet to stab one of the attackers in the chest to save the life of another soldier.”

For this man, the battle started at 5am on Monday and finished three hours later when a bullet smashed into his arm. He still doesn’t know how he escaped. He pointed upwards with his finger, the traditional way of telling you that it was God’s work. By evening that day, the gunfire was scarcely half a mile from the gates of the ancient Roman city.

Up close to the old international highway to Homs and the north of Syria, there are now spanking new Russian main battle tanks reversing in clouds of black dust, anti-aircraft guns to fire over open sights and a batch of mortars that sent shells quivering over our heads today into the great, smashed industrial estate of Jobar, a wasteland of vast concrete and iron factories into which the Nusra men – one junior Syrian officer said they numbered in all a staggering 4,000 – emerged on Monday. Grey smoke billowed hundreds of feet out of the carcasses of factories as jets repeatedly bombed at low level. Rule of thumb: if you can’t see the planes, they are Russian. I could see these Migs. They were Syrian.

At one point this week, some Damascenes feared that Nusra might break into the very centre of the city, and Gulf television presenters gleefully announced the news. “They” didn’t make it, although I found a Syrian television crew permanently stationed in Abassiyeen square, partly, I suspect, to prove Al-Jazeera and the other anti-Bashar [al-Assad] Gulf channels are lying if they claim that Nusra have crossed the broken sports stadium on the eastern side.

But what was it about, this sudden explosion of Nusra/al-Qaeda fighters this week? To mark the start of Syria’s revolution seven years ago? To take the shine off the detritus of eastern Aleppo after the government’s capture of the enclave? Or – and this was the favourite within the Syrian army today – an opposition game to give its divided leadership more power to win points and wreck the latest round of “peace” talks in Geneva this week.

Either way, it appears to have run itself into the ground. Syrian troops are back inside the dust of the factories, digging their own tunnels now – you have to take their word for it, and even then it’s all a bit late if it’s true – and the tanks up on Qassioun are pouring their fire onto the highway between Qaboun and Jobar to prevent the Nusra forces moving reinforcements of ammunition and food to the south. High up on the rockside, you can just see the bloom of their fire – big, golden and obscene – and it takes all of 12 seconds for their shells to rumble across north-eastern Damascus and land in Jobar.

The civil population of this partly middle-class suburb, Sunni Muslims for the most part, fled their homes here years ago – if they haven’t moved into Mezze and other areas to the west, many have apparently and rather oddly moved to Greece – so this is an all military battle, fought between men who have come to like fighting, the army yet again claiming a victory. One soldier said he thought 500 Nusra men had been killed. As usual, no one spoke of prisoners.

Maybe the best way of illustrating how this latest phase of the Syrian war is being fought is to let soldiers talk for themselves. It’s a story of tunnels – so many tunnels, just as there were in the siege of Homs and the siege of eastern Aleppo and, in an intriguing parallel, amid the equally smashed Sheikh Najjar industrial estate north of Aleppo two years ago. Here is the wounded soldier.

“We were in the textile factory and at 5am [on 20 March], we saw a suicide car coming towards us. We knew it was coming, we tried to rocket it. They were shelling us. One car bomb was near our factory and it exploded and it made a break [in the wall] in the north front of the factory. We regrouped, but in minutes they were sneaking in from the other side of the factory. Then another group came out of a tunnel, to the left of the factory. Then there was another huge suicide bomb driven at us.”

The same soldier’s colleague spoke of more car bombs. “On the second day, it was difficult to move because of the huge amount of damage and all the smoke. We retook all the territory we’d lost and encircled hundreds of them. It was a fierce battle but then another suicide bomber came at us. This time it was a BMP [a Russian armoured vehicle, probably captured from the Syrians in the early stages of the war] full of explosives. We stopped them reinforcing from Qaboun [to the north].”

There was another car bomb, some of the fighting taking place this time inside the ruins of yet another factory that once made orange crush juice. A third soldier. “We could hear on their radio that one of their groups was trapped and he was shouting desperately to his comrades outside: ‘If you don’t evacuate us and the other wounded now, we will abandon our position.’ All the attacks involved waves of fighters but they were all surrounded by the army.”

Even given the tendency for soldiers to exaggerate their abilities, it’s clear that the Syrian army has recovered much ground. But can they hold it? There’s a lot of machine-gun fire and artillery fire being sent into Jobar by the army now – and remember, much of this area has been a Nusra stronghold for years – but where does all the Nusra ammunition come from? I spoke to a soldier in Seif al-Dawla street close to a tracked anti-aircraft gun draped with iron nets to shield it from anti-armour rockets.

“A month ago, we raided a house at Barzi [north of Damascus] and we found more drones than you can imagine. Whole rooms packed with drones – at least three rooms. Where did they get them?” There is some debate among the soldiers. Many, with varying degrees of contempt, blame Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the US in that order (there may be more than a little truth in this, of course), although Nusra is also still fighting with guns and vehicles originally captured from the Syrian army itself.

“Everything that happens here is linked to something else – attacks and peace conferences,” Raed said. He was a 25-year old volunteer soldier from Idlib – as an only son, he cannot be forced to fight – standing next to an old traffic warning sign of better days which cautioned motorists that they were approaching “dangerous corssroads”. Dangerous indeed. There’s an unhappy dividing line west of Jobar where the wedge of apartment blocks between there and the old city is almost all Christian, but this war has now taken on such routine clothes that I found soldiers casually speeding off on motorcycles to buy sandwiches.

Another climbed wearily from the back seat of an old yellow city taxi, Kalashnikov in hand, roughly bearded – a surprising amount of Syrian soldiers now sport vast bushy beards, not unlike their Nusra opponents, though this is military fashion chic rather than Quranic chic. But you’ve got to refocus on the tired guy with the AK. A soldier comes to war by taxi. Now that’s something to think about. And in a weird way, more impressive than the clutch of monstrous new tanks I watched a mile away, next to the smoke of Jobar.
The number for the rebels given for Mosul is 2000, for Damascus is 4000. Both numbers are inaccurate but say they are of the same magnitude.
 
Today at 9:06 AM
about forty hours ago
Thursday at 1:45 PM


and, as of now, the schematic blue line more or less stays; just a few points:
  • concerning the area marked by 2 in blue above, saw a vid from Maarzaf yesterday, and this place is probably the western-most part of the anti-Government protrusion toward Hama;
  • "3 blue": saw a vid from Khattab yesterday;
  • "4 red": Government repelled attacks on Qomhana EDIT this is probably the most important point
  • "5 blue": Kawkab either was until recently, or still is, the eastern-most part (yesterday in the evening I read, in some group on reddit, Government so far had mounted six attacks to regain it)
  • in totally pro-Government Twitter account found the pictures of Government reinforcements on their way to the area, of this type:
    C7tmogHXUAIn9KK.jpg

  • the most recent "peto lucem" map (it's
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    C7tIg6EXkAEMblu.jpg:large
details of the recent action emerging (if you want to see plenty of various pictures, you may visit related blog by "Cassad"
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):
zx3aA.jpg


the current (approximate) line is in blue (I don't know the status of Kawkab (to the right from the red question mark above), while thwarted anti-Government attacks are schematically marked by red arrow lines:
  1. against Kurnaz (in top-left corner); I read in reddit the gathering had been bombed by Russian Air Force before an attack, which was then postponed, and failed
  2. to encircle Muhradah by taking it from Shayzar north to it (LOL is there anybody who looks at it?) in the direction of Maarzaf
  3. to take over Qimhanah; I kinda assumed it had been entered from north, while according to the geolocation I saw in Twitter of a combat video it was from west towards its southern part (?!), anyway the defenders were ready:
    17458327_747559682068538_1719666068850657739_n.jpg
another heavily defended place is Maan up north (it's Tian in the above map), and if anti-Government forces don't succeed in the southern part of the protrusion towards Hama, they'll be obviously exposed to a possible Maan - Muhradah sickle ... in my comfortable armchair, I should stop at that :)
 
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Yesterday at 10:26 AM
..., anyway I think at this point of the campaign it's "gloves off" I mean if they think there's for example an ISIL command post inside some building, they'll flatten the building period
and here's the Politically Correct description:
"Faced with their toughest fight yet against IS, Iraqi and coalition forces have increasingly turned to airstrikes and artillery to clear and hold territory in western Mosul's densely-populated western neighborhoods."
U.S. command: Mosul airstrikes were at the request of Iraq
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Yesterday at 9:06 AM
... Government repelled attacks on Qomhana EDIT this is probably the most important point ...
now found what looks like Vigilantes from Qomhaha in Facebook
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saying for example
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[just automatic translation here]:
A violent attack armed terrorist groups on the outskirts of town qamhana while heroes garrison town in cooperation and coordination with the Syrian Arab Army Heroes to respond without any progress or breach by gunmen.

"give your trust your army... your army byḩmyk"

if authentic, it would mean the anti-Government offensive is not over yet
 

delft

Brigadier
Yesterday at 9:06 AM

now found what looks like Vigilantes from Qomhaha in Facebook
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saying for example
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[just automatic translation here]:


if authentic, it would mean the anti-Government offensive is not over yet
It wasn't but perhaps now it is. From AMN:
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Dangerous jihadist offensive at key Hama town ends in dramatic fashion
By
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- 26/03/2017

BEIRUT, LEBANON (11:20 P.M.) – The jihadist rebels of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham launched a powerful assault, tonight, in the northern Hama countryside, targeting the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) defenses at the key town of Qomhana.

Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham surprised the Syrian Arab Army with a vicious assault on the northern flank of Qomhana; this resulted in the jihadist group entering the town after overrunning the government’s first line of defense.

For nearly three hours on Sunday night, the jihadist rebels attempted to push deep into Qomhana; however, they were eventually encircled by the Syrian Arab Army once reinforcements arrived from both the western and eastern flanks.

According to a military source, the Syrian Arab Army fully secured the town, while also maintaining their gains that were made at the eastern and western flanks earlier in the day.

The source added that a large number of militants were killed once they were encircled inside Qomhana, forcing the remaining jihadists outside the town to have to give up on the battle.
 
Saturday at 5:49 PM
...
zx3aA.jpg


... in my comfortable armchair, I should stop at that :)
and as of now, when I independently went over sources (despite "peto lucem" and "miladvisor" maps available, which I'll put in the end of this post; by the way pictures available in the related blog by "Cassad"
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), the approximate current line is in blue, the one from like one week ago in yellow, and the blue dotted line shows what anti-Government forces lost most recently:
w8pf.jpg

let's wait and see if now Government gains the initiative ... or the lines become "static" ... or anti-Government forces regroup and ...

C78C-0aXUAAKcml.jpg

(it's
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)

dPlT4Na.jpg

(it's
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)​
 

delft

Brigadier
From AMN:
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Syrian Army agrees to trade isolated Idlib pocket for rebel towns in rural Damascus
By
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- 27/03/2017

DAMASCUS, SYRIA (10:25 P.M.) – An astonishing deal is underway between warring parties in Syria after Islamist rebels and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reportedly reached a verbal agreement on Monday evening to trade control of Fuah and Kafraya in Idlib province in return for Madaya and Zabadani in the Rif Dimashq governorate.

The agreement was facilitated by a delegation from Qatar while the initial part of the undisclosed deal involves a ceasefire in both areas to begin at midnight on Tuesday.

Next, besieged residents in the aforementioned towns are to be evacuated to safer areas while government troops and insurgents stationed there will undergo the same journey.

If all goes to plan in the weeks to come, rebel forces will surrender Madaya and Zabadani to the SAA while the latter will concede Fuah and Kafraya to Jaish al-Fateh.
As ever more rebels are moved to Idlib defending Fuah and Kafraya was becoming ever more problematical?
 

delft

Brigadier
Robert Fisk, from The Independent:
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Syria: Final evacuation of Homs begins under close Russian supervision
Endgames: inside Syria and Iraq Soon the Assad regime will be able to claim complete control of the major city of Homs for the first time in years. Robert Fisk witnesses a day of huge significance in the history of Syria


They came out of the dawn. Young men dressed and scarved in black and carrying Kalashnikovs, old men in wheelchairs, mothers in midnight niqabs, a teenager with a child in one arm and a strapped rifle draped over the other, a serious man with a big gold and green Koran in his right hand and a small figure with a vast shaggy beard, the very last Che Guevara, walking and limping and sometimes marching almost nonchalantly onto the buses. They came from the very last rebel enclave in Homs. And they were, some of them, going to fight another day.

They didn’t look at us. They didn’t look at the Russian soldiers or the Syrian troops or the policemen or the plain clothes Syrian cops or the Red Crescent women; they didn’t bother to glance at the cameras that whirred and clicked their faces off to posterity; not that you could see many of the women behind their face covers and black scarves as they climbed slowly onto the buses. But one young man in a red and white track suit who glowered towards us, turned back once he was on the bus, behind the safety of the window.

And he grinned and put his right finger in the air above his head and turned it round and round for his audience on the street outside. "We are coming back," it said. We are not leaving. We are not surrendering. But of course, no-one had asked these hundreds of men and women to surrender. Months of negotiations and trust and a lot of suspicion are slowly emptying the withered, smashed suburb of al-Wa’er of its armed men. Al-Wa’er means a barren place, a place without flowers, a place where nothing grows.

So what might grow after this exodus of people – Syrians for the most part, although one man must have been a Sudanese and Che Guevara looked as though he was probably a Saudi – and what peace might it bring to central Syria? All were sent in their fleets of buses north to Jerablus on the Turkish border where the Syrian government hopes, without saying so, that they will seep across into Turkey and never return. But that wasn’t what the governor of Homs was telling them. He walked to the buses and pleaded with the departing thousands to stay. You will be safe, he told them. You can stay in your homes. You will not be arrested.

There was a middle-aged man with a limp who sported a sniper’s rifle, burly men with shoulder bags whose contents we could only guess at and so many more young mothers and children, some who looked unwell, and babies who must have been born under siege. The Russians watched impassively, tall, well-fed soldiers in flak jackets and steel helmets, guarding the lives of ferociously opposed enemies – the militiamen emerging from the slums and the Syrian troops watching them leave for the far north. Colonel Sergei Druzon of the Russian army looked on like a little Zhukov. This may not have been a military victory for Moscow – but by heavens it was a political victory for the Russians to have taken over the role of UN peacekeepers – if only for a day – on the Syrian front line.

But epic dramas like this need subjectivity as well as cynical truth. Within two days, 160 fighters had reportedly chosen to stay in a new government-controlled al-Waer, laying down their weapons and choosing to trust the government they have fought. Another 215 men and women, including 50 fighters, chose to leave. A further 450 were to join them. The figures climbed throughout the day. But what was so striking was the normality of it all – maybe "naturalness" gets closer to the feeling – because here were lethal enemies, the armed groups of al-Wa’er (Nusrah/al-Qaeda among them) and the Syrian army and special forces who had fought and killed each other and whose monstrous war still consumes Syria, standing only 15 metres apart, scarcely even bothering to look at each other.

At first, it was all very self-conscious. The Syrians eyed the crowds and especially the gunmen among them, desperate to believe their promises of safe conduct and allowed to carry their small arms and rifles. But the "rebels" – and here the quotation marks are necessary because there were at least 15 different versions of them – tried to look casual, almost bored, as if it was the most tiresome thing in the world to abandon your home (or at least your battleground) and sidle past your enemies to try a new life elsewhere.

Then came the defiant ones. Instead of carrying their weapons in their left hands, between themselves and the buses where the cameras couldn’t snap their guns, they made their way through the tapered columns with their AKs in their right hand, happy to be seen with them although often virtually masked by black scarves, defiant rather than defeated. And then, after a couple of hours, they would approach the front of their queues with a vague curiosity. They looked at the Syrian soldiers with a faint interest. So THIS was the enemy, their eyes said. But they said nothing.

No-one offered a word. No one spoke or prayed or cried – for many were leaving their homes, perhaps forever – and save for the roar of the buses and the Syrian jets which daggered meaningfully through the skies overhead (and surely this was a message from the government), not a sound came from these hundreds of men and women. If this was Hollywood – and none could deny the drama – it was a largely silent movie. Maybe there should have been a piano in the background or a list of captions to tell the audience what the actors were thinking. But all we got were dozens of tourist buses, advertising Syrian tours around a country which no sane person would or could tour, save for those boarding these very same buses for the north.

There were a few named characters in this theatre. There was, for example, the imam in his long gown who walked from the departing masses whose name was Sheikh Attalah and who shook the hands of the mufti of Homs, Sheikh Issam al-Musri, who came to greet him from the government side. Al-Musri pleaded with his friend to stay in Homs, not to board the buses. Attalah – and his words were almost inaudible -- spoke of a decision taken 24 hours earlier to leave. The word went round that he spoke of a "fatwa" issued by some authority (unknown) that threatened anyone who stayed with death. But there was no confirmation of this.

Then the governor of Homs, a tall, deeply thoughtful man – a businessman in Dubai before Bashar al-Assad asked him to take over Homs, a man involved in public relations in the Gulf and who also indulged in film production in his previous incarnation (which surely must have helped him in al-Wa’er), who admitted that, yes, he was “deeply saddened” that so many had chosen to leave. “I pleaded with them,” Talal al-Barazi said. “I told them not to be unafraid, that they could stay in their homes, lay down their arms. I told the Syrian fighters they were our people, that they were welcome to stay in their homes, that they could trust our word.”

There had been bitter disagreement between the "rebel" groups. Some wanted to go to Idlib to join their comrades there. Others opted for the Turkish border. Colonel Druzon admitted there had been much debate about the destination of the buses. The rows between competing armed groups had already caused long delays in the departure programme, which will continue again next week. And what of those who will nonetheless make their way to the big killer zone of Idlib? Will they, too, be bombed once more, even by the air force comrades of the Russian soldiers protecting them on the edge of al-Wa'er?

Mr al-Barazi – and you cannot fault the man’s optimism – said that many would still remain, that 150 had agreed to stay in the past two days, that everyone, the religious leaders, including the Christian clergy, had added their names to their guarantees of safety. But then, looking at those black-clad figures with their guns and children and niqabed wives, would you, reader, trust yourself – if you were them, heavens above -- to the regime you had been trying to destroy for more than six years? War crimes have been committed across this poor country by every side – and no-one has yet dared to produce a figure for the hundreds of kidnap victims in Homs (yes, again, by both sides) since the start of this war.

And so they continued to walk up the red and white tapes towards the buses. Many looked poor and they had the plastic suitcases and zipper-bags of the poor and the children had clothes that were either too pink or two green and who looked as if no-one had combed their hair for many days. They weren’t all like this. There were a few dapper shoes, some niqab-chic and a man faithfully clutching a satellite dish. Perhaps he wanted, up in Jerablus, to plug it in and view his own exodus.

“One by one,” an armed Syrian policemen said loudly to several departing gunmen, and they waited and kept their patience and walked obediently to the buses. But this was the saddest departure, for most of the hundreds who queued to leave were not foreigners and this portended further dispossession and pain and loss and the young man who indicated that he would return meant what he said and he didn’t intend to come back without his gun. Alas, it was the same old story. The Syrians were on the move again.
 
Yesterday at 9:01 PM
..., the approximate current line is in blue, the one from like one week ago in yellow, and the blue dotted line shows what anti-Government forces lost most recently:
w8pf.jpg

...
... and now it seems to be (more or less) confirmed today
  1. (number in blue in top-left corner in the map below) anti-Government forces attacked in Kurnaz area;
  2. (also in blue, Muhradah area) anti-Government forces attacked north to the Orontes River;
  3. Government attacked in the southernmost part of the protrusion towards Hama;
  4. Government shot from Mount Zayn
    ... Mount Zayn is like Government fortified mountain ...
    at Al Lataminah area
I don't mean to be cynical, but resulting changes, if any, don't even make me to create a new map
KVFQp.jpg


let's wait and see
 
Yesterday at 7:50 PM
Yesterday at 9:01 PM

...

let's wait and see
149081261231081.jpg

according to this most recent map (it's
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) Government got to the area south to Arzeh, but I admit I didn't even know anti-Government forces had been there (approximated by the blue dotted line below):
iwgkv.jpg

I saw a vid showing Government attack on Majdal (shown in top-left corner above) had failed today

EDIT
and on this occasion:
Thursday at 7:22 PM
... The big news of the day must be the SAA taking the town on Deir Hafer in East Aleppo, which they took without needing to storm, after they launched a lighting flanking move south and West that successfully encircled the town.
It seems that ISIS legged it before the trap was fully set.

The capture of Deir Hafer is big news!
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I looked at an area other than Northern Hama:
In Pictures: Syrian Army enters Deir Hafer for the first time
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By
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-
29/03/2017
 
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