Well, I have noted a number of things in the past few weeks which does nothing to dispel my suspicions that something is cooking.
The first thing to say is that a regional aspect has shown itself rather than a simply Chinese undertaking. In late July, the regional meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan of Russia, the Tajiks, Pakistan and Afghanistan to discuss the problem of terrorism cast specific geographical boundaries from the SWAT valley of Pakistan to the Rasht Valley of Tajikistan. Both areas form an arc which encompass also the Trehan Valley in Afghanistan. That such an action would come under the Aegis of both CSTO and SCO should come as no surprise.
Secondly, we have reports in Xinhua of the Chinese authorities capturing active Uighur cells in Xinjiang with a cryptic reference of sensitive information also being found
We also have the curious incident of the Jet liner last week.
In addition we also have over the last few days some very tantilising snippets from the military itself.
The first is the rushing through of new rules of engagement specifically for anti terrorist operations
While today we learn of long distance deployments of 50,000 troops as part of a new Military Exercise called Stride 09. This has sent large numbers of troops crossing the length and breadth of the country for exercises that will last up to two months.
For full details, follow the link to China Military Online, but then follow their menu as copying full urls from this site appears blocked.
The main thing of interest in this is that it means people have been warned to expect the sight of large numbers of troops heading long distances in all directions for a period that represents the rest of the fighting season in Central Asia.
Nothing is of course definitive, and is all plausibly deniable. It is also true that if action was an option on the table then these are the kind of signs you would expect to see and we are seeing a lot of signs in an increasingly rapid succession of the type that we have not seen previously.
