Raptoreyes
New Member
Beijing can only use charm or fear on the European citizenry directly. As difficulty goes this "taming of Europe's citizens directly" will be much harder to obtain then say destroying the west financial system via raw materials purchases or ceasing some islands near the mainland.
Western society has a wealth of civil non governmental institutions that the Politburo thinks are merely cats paws for western governments. Governmental power (or more fundamentally official authority) is not viewed the same way in the west. Chinese governmental elites simply do not seem to understand this. Western governments are conditionally tolerated and seen as a potential springboard for a despot/ other threat to freedom but a necessary one by the people living in those jurisdictions. The French may do it via infrastructure clogging protests and the US government still has the tattered remains of checks and balances "keep the fire(government) harnessed and contained in its pit"
In this Western governments are simply bending to demands of civil society as Alexis De Tocqueville described it when dealing with China. Western politicians may secretly admire the sort of unchecked power they would have in a Chinese one party state but to admire China openly is to be turned out of office by disgruntled interest groups. Short of the United States or the west becoming as autocratic as China under its Politburo is... the many NGO's and interest groups in the west will be unlikely to view the communist party with less distrust then they view politicians in as a whole AT BEST!. At worst the remaining Politburo is the unfinished part of the cold war.
In the west protesters are naturally viewed as having more prerogatives and less responsibility while governments actions are picked apart for the slightest wiff of corruption or unfairness. Rebellion is considered at worst an honest mistake (George Washington pardoning the leaders of the Whiskey Rebellion comes to mind), at best its equated with the best Western culture has to offer. This has been the case for centuries in the west. The CCP will loose all its teeth long before it cracks this particular nut. At least it will, unless it tries something so new even the political scientists have no name for it yet.
Governments have reduced ability to mold perceptions (China's provincial riots and Falum Gong) much as they have reduced ability to hold territory profitably over the objections of a local populace (Iraq and Afghanistan). This historical territory shaped by the internet and the Green Dam firewall will slow but not stop that "de-massification" if information dissemination. Too many people know to much for the people internal security forces to liquidate or imprison them all in the country much less outside of it.
That is the government line but Chinese with access to independent unfiltered sources of info are not likely to accept that line.
Western civil society is more likely to fall to lack of effective checks and balances holding back their own governments which will play the false part of protective parent in a prolonged crisis. CCP security forces killing the heads of NGO's that externally support internal decent, will just bring in more strident committed opposition from more sources. After awhile the Catholic church discovered it could not kill its way back to the days before Martin Luther nailed his petition upon the churches door. The CCP is likely on the wrong side of history unless western civil society is far weaker then even I think it has become.
Because we know how "You are either with us or against us" ultimately worked out for president Bush. (allies leaving you left and right with NGO's using your name as a pin cushion). This is also at a time when the Baltic Dry index of world trade is at an all time low and localization of consumption is trendy in addition to renewed union cries for protectionism across the globe. If the CCP wants to speed up its isolation from the rest of the world because the rest of the world won't send it a love letter over crackdowns upon protesters.... Well the CCP as a whole may share Bush's current popularity ratings given time.
Invading is never the problem for a large power. Thousands of losses via a counter insurgency after you garrison a place is the hard part. Such activity would also make it easier for the the United States to convince the South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) nations that increased military expenditure to counter the CCP's new overseas ambitions in the pacific is the way to go. Even if America had a treasury induced bout of hyperinflation at the same time almost all of the pacific rim would be re-arming.
As harsh as the Chinese military would have to be to put down a counter insurgency, nobody would care much about documents detailing Western involvement outside of China itself.
I doubt the opposition groups in China depend upon external support. The world pretty much ignored Falum Gong after some initial interest but the organization is still chiseling away at the internet restrictions, has a highly mobile radio station and is just plane not dieing out despite CCP efforts to ensure just that goal. Some Chinese might buy the story of internal groups colluding with foreign agents but how many will if the Chinese economy suddenly returns to growth rates more typical of economies with low economic freedom index scores?
On this we can agree trouble is brewing. Though the source of the trouble is the way the CCP relates to its own citizens and the outside world. Acting the way the CCP does will always provoke unending opposition. The CCP can have a thriving economy at the expense of constant challenges to its legitimacy from thousands of small groups from all over the globe. Or China can have an economy reminiscent of what it had while Mao was in power and an internal populace obedient to the parties slightest whim.
However the CCP cannot have a BOTH a thriving economy AND an obedient internal populace, as every economic freedom allows people to funnel money to groups the CCP does not like. The CCP is acting like a western teenager who wants the benefits money can bring without any of the work. Eventually reality will summon up the will to disappoint even a teenager as scary giant sized as the CCP.
Nature cannot be commanded unless it is obeyed-- Ayn Rand
